The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Partly supported
Palantir accelerated revenue growth from 18% to 98% following AI pivot
“Palantir went from 18% growth to 98% growth, right? Unprecedented in our lifetimes, right? It may be the one of n or the n equals one.”
Jason Lemkin Aug 12, 2026 ▶ 22:00 Canva Slashes Growth | Talent Exodus at Google | Revolut's $50B CEO Package | Musk's $55B Terrafab
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Anthropic's revenue multiple is lower than Palantir's
“It's a much lower revenue multiple than Palantir. It's kind of comparable with Cloudflare for God's sake in the public markets.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jan 15, 2026 ▶ 3:04 Anthropic’s $10B Raise | a16z’s $15B Fund: Is the Middle Dead in VC? | How OpenAI Could Go to Zero? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Contradicted
O'Driscoll: Palantir Is the Only Public Software Company Growing Over 30%
“There is literally only one public company growing more than 30%, and that's Palantir.”
Rory O'Driscoll Dec 4, 2025 ▶ 6:23 Eventbrite Sold for $500M, Databricks $5B Raise at $134B Valuation & Why SaaS is Like Japan · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Partly supported
Benioff: US Government is Salesforce's largest customer after beating Palantir on Army contract
“Because the US federal government is already my largest customer, right? That's our, you know, we run the Veterans Administration, the GSA, and we just won You probably read just, we just run a huge U S army contract. We beat Palantir.”
Marc Benioff Aug 28, 2025 ▶ 11:27 Anthropic's $10B Round, Klarna's IPO, Inside a16z's 72 Deal Seed Investment Machine ft. Marc Benioff · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Partly supported
Palmer Luckey: SpaceX and Palantir Were Defense's Only Recent Unicorns
“And when I looked at national security, it was a very interesting space where the only two unicorns in the last 30 years in defense, Palantir and SpaceX, were both founded by people who had just sold their company for billions of dollars.”
Palmer Luckey Sep 28, 2020 ▶ 7:48 20VC: Anduril Founder, Palmer Luckey: "I Am Here To Build a $50Bn Company", How Palmer Evaluates His Relationship To Money Pre & Post Oculus' $2.3Bn Exit & Why The US DOD Needs To Be More Like China in It's Approach
Assertion Supported
Randle: Top public SaaS platforms trade above 15x NTM revenue
“You have, I mean, Palo Alto, CrowdStrike, Cloudflare, Datadog, Palantir, all these companies trade above 15 times NTM revenue again.”
Everett Randle Jun 18, 2026 ▶ 58:54 Anthropic's Fable Banned by US Government | Wix & Adobe Hit All-Time Lows | Mistral Raising at $20BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: xAI lost military deal when Palantir chose Anthropic
“He wasn't even approved at the Department of Defense for this application, right? Only XAI was, and they had lost. They had lost because Palantir picked Anthropic.”
Jason Lemkin Mar 5, 2026 ▶ 18:07 Anthropic vs The Pentagon: Who Wins? | OpenAI's $110BN Mega Round | Cursor Hits $2BN in ARR · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Jason Lemkin: Public software multiples jump sharply above 20% and 30% growth
“If you're growing less than 20% of a cherry pick basket, 5.1 X AR, Wix is lower. It's not in my basket. 20 to 30, 11.8 X AR. And then the 30% plus, which is Rubrik, Palantir and Figma, average 23.7 X AR, but Palantir and Rubrik push that up.”
Jason Lemkin Nov 27, 2025 ▶ 1:04:20 Anthropic Raises $30B from Microsoft & NVIDIA & NVIDIA’s Core Business Faces TPU Threat · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Rory O'Driscoll: Palantir is cash flow positive trading at 123x revenue
“Palantir is trading at 123 times revenues. And this cash flow positive.”
Rory O'Driscoll Nov 6, 2025 ▶ 53:44 Is a $4.5BN Exit Enough in VC? & Harvey Raises $150M & Why Google is a Buy and Amazon is a Sell · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Cohen: Sand Hill Road VCs completely missed investing early in Palantir
“Pretty much all of Sandhill had completely missed the boat on Palantir, and this guy had been there, and he saw it early.”
Alina Cohen Aug 30, 2017 ▶ 6:21 20VC: Why AI Is More Artificial Than Intelligent, Why Engineering-centric Founders Are Able To Pivot Best & Why Startups Are Like Games with Alina Cohen, General Partner @ Initialized Capital
Assertion Contradicted
Rory O'Driscoll: Palantir trades at 70x forward sales with 45% growth
“You could have also cited, at Palantir, at 70 times forward sales, right, for a 45% grower”
Rory O'Driscoll Jan 22, 2026 ▶ 2:22 Elon Musk vs Sam Altman | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Pricing? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Palantir Re-Accelerated from 12% Growth to 45% Growth
“It goes from 12% growth at about two billion revenue in twenty-twenty-three to almost 45% growth at four billion in ARR.”
Jason Lemkin Aug 14, 2025 ▶ 47:45 Sam Altman's Masterplan or a Gift to Anthropic? Palantir & Shopify Crush Earnings · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin claims Palantir raised gross margins from 20% to 70% before IPO
“Palantir ran that playbook, their metrics were atrocious before the IPO. They weren't even SAS. They had like, 20% gross margins. Forget our profits. Then magically their margins were in the 70 the year before the iPhone, and they've done pretty well.”
Jason Lemkin Jun 3, 2024 ▶ 53:23 Jason Lemkin: PluralSight S*** the Bed & The Next IPO Candidates | E1160 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Partly supported
Sunak: a16z, Palantir, OpenAI, and Anthropic are establishing UK offices
“Andreessen Horowitz, you know, all the world's most successful VC investors opening their first international office here in the UK. And that just comes on the back of Palantir saying that they're going to do their AI headquarters for research here in the UK. …”
Rishi Sunak Jun 14, 2023 ▶ 5:38 Rishi Sunak: The UK's New High Potential Visa; Rishi's £100M AI Task Force | E1025 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Palantir took over 10 years to land its first government contract
“I think it took Palantir a decade plus to get its first real government contract.”
Brian Singerman Nov 11, 2021 ▶ 8:54 20VC: The Anduril Memo: Founders Fund's Brian Singerman on What Makes Palmer Luckey One of the Greatest Innovators in History, Why It Is BS The DOD Do Not Want To Work With Silicon Valley & Why in Venture You Have To Play A Different Game to the Hedge Fun
Assertion Supported
Peter Thiel wrote his $500K Facebook check while starting Palantir
“I got the call from Peter saying, hey, come on down, and we're starting a company. We'd like you to be one of the first engineers and flew down to have dinner with him about the same time that he wrote the 500,000 dollar check to Facebook.”
Garry Tan Dec 14, 2016 ▶ 3:48 20VC: Garry Tan on The Biggest Takeaways From Advising 700 Companies @ Y Combinator & Why Now Is The Golden Age For The Early Stage?
Assertion Supported
Fishner-Wolfson: Palantir stayed private for 17 to 18 years before IPO
“Palantir basically, you know, has been, or they're now public, but they were private for 1718 years.”
Justin Fishner-Wolfson Feb 4, 2021 ▶ 27:16 20VC: Why VCs Should Care More About Cost of Capital and Less About Ownership, Investing Lessons from working with Peter Thiel at Founders Fund, Why Liquidity Aligns Incentives Between Founders and Investors & Why It Is The Last Double That Matters in Ven
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