why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Partly supported
Palantir accelerated revenue growth from 18% to 98% following AI pivot
“Palantir went from 18% growth to 98% growth, right? Unprecedented in our lifetimes, right? It may be the one of n or the n equals one.”
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Anthropic's revenue multiple is lower than Palantir's
“It's a much lower revenue multiple than Palantir. It's kind of comparable with Cloudflare for God's sake in the public markets.”
Assertion Contradicted
O'Driscoll: Palantir Is the Only Public Software Company Growing Over 30%
“There is literally only one public company growing more than 30%, and that's Palantir.”
Assertion Partly supported
Benioff: US Government is Salesforce's largest customer after beating Palantir on Army contract
“Because the US federal government is already my largest customer, right? That's our, you know, we run the Veterans Administration, the GSA, and we just won You probably read just, we just run a huge U S army contract. We beat Palantir.”
Assertion Partly supported
Palmer Luckey: SpaceX and Palantir Were Defense's Only Recent Unicorns
“And when I looked at national security, it was a very interesting space where the only two unicorns in the last 30 years in defense, Palantir and SpaceX, were both founded by people who had just sold their company for billions of dollars.”
Assertion Supported
Randle: Top public SaaS platforms trade above 15x NTM revenue
“You have, I mean, Palo Alto, CrowdStrike, Cloudflare, Datadog, Palantir, all these companies trade above 15 times NTM revenue again.”
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: xAI lost military deal when Palantir chose Anthropic
“He wasn't even approved at the Department of Defense for this application, right? Only XAI was, and they had lost. They had lost because Palantir picked Anthropic.”
Assertion Supported
Jason Lemkin: Public software multiples jump sharply above 20% and 30% growth
“If you're growing less than 20% of a cherry pick basket, 5.1 X AR, Wix is lower. It's not in my basket. 20 to 30, 11.8 X AR. And then the 30% plus, which is Rubrik, Palantir and Figma, average 23.7 X AR, but Palantir and Rubrik push that up.”
Assertion Supported
Rory O'Driscoll: Palantir is cash flow positive trading at 123x revenue
“Palantir is trading at 123 times revenues. And this cash flow positive.”
Assertion Supported
Cohen: Sand Hill Road VCs completely missed investing early in Palantir
“Pretty much all of Sandhill had completely missed the boat on Palantir, and this guy had been there, and he saw it early.”
Assertion Contradicted
Rory O'Driscoll: Palantir trades at 70x forward sales with 45% growth
“You could have also cited, at Palantir, at 70 times forward sales, right, for a 45% grower”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Palantir Re-Accelerated from 12% Growth to 45% Growth
“It goes from 12% growth at about two billion revenue in twenty-twenty-three to almost 45% growth at four billion in ARR.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin claims Palantir raised gross margins from 20% to 70% before IPO
“Palantir ran that playbook, their metrics were atrocious before the IPO. They weren't even SAS. They had like, 20% gross margins. Forget our profits. Then magically their margins were in the 70 the year before the iPhone, and they've done pretty well.”
Assertion Partly supported
Sunak: a16z, Palantir, OpenAI, and Anthropic are establishing UK offices
“Andreessen Horowitz, you know, all the world's most successful VC investors opening their first international office here in the UK. And that just comes on the back of Palantir saying that they're going to do their AI headquarters for research here in the UK. …”
Assertion Supported
Palantir took over 10 years to land its first government contract
“I think it took Palantir a decade plus to get its first real government contract.”
Assertion Supported
Peter Thiel wrote his $500K Facebook check while starting Palantir
“I got the call from Peter saying, hey, come on down, and we're starting a company. We'd like you to be one of the first engineers and flew down to have dinner with him about the same time that he wrote the 500,000 dollar check to Facebook.”
Assertion Supported
Fishner-Wolfson: Palantir stayed private for 17 to 18 years before IPO
“Palantir basically, you know, has been, or they're now public, but they were private for 1718 years.”