The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 5 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Open · timeframe Feb 2027
Lemkin: Top 25 public software stocks slowed every quarter since Q1 2022
“Every single quarter since Q one of 20, 22 growth has slowed for the, for all public software stocks. Every single quarter it has slowed and it continues to slow. And there are a handful of folks that have reaccelerated like Mongo and Palantir. And there are a…”
Jason Lemkin Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 14:57 The SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse |Microsoft Lost $360B & NVIDIA’s $100B Dispute with OpenAI
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Lemkin: Three of today's top six B2B stocks will retain 2026 leadership
“My Pekumumusukus, Pekumumusukus, Palantir, Cloudflare, Mongo, Shopify, CrowdStrike, Snowflake, I'll bet you 10 grand, three of them are in the top six of this cohort at the end of next year.”
Jason Lemkin Dec 22, 2025 ▶ 40:01 Predictions for 2026: Top Buy & Biggest Short | Why Salesforce Could Win & NVIDIA’s Challenges · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2027
O'Driscoll: Palantir and AI CapEx Will Face a Major Correction Within Two Years
“I think, Michael, it's very hard to imagine a company trading north of a 110, 120 times revenues like Palantir, growing at 50 or 60% last quarter. Great. Amazing quarter. Kicking off cash. It's very hard not to imagine the next two years that doesn't have a si…”
Rory O'Driscoll Nov 13, 2025 ▶ 12:50 Michael Burry Shorts NVIDIA and Palantir & Has Defensibility Died in a World of AI? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2030
O'Driscoll: Palantir Market Cap Will Not Reach $2 Trillion in Five Years
“I just think compounding to two trillion from here is pretty damn hard. So I'm a no.”
Rory O'Driscoll Aug 14, 2025 ▶ 1:29:13 Sam Altman's Masterplan or a Gift to Anthropic? Palantir & Shopify Crush Earnings · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2029
Sierra aims for far greater customer volume than Palantir
“My understanding is, you know, Palantir has kind of low hundreds of customers. We are and intend to be at a lot larger scale than that.”
Clay Bavor Jul 4, 2026 ▶ 36:17 Open Models vs Frontier Models: Who Actually Wins? | The $100K Token Budget Every Engineer Will Need · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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