The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up
Nejatian: Opendoor will not remain a solely asset-heavy company
“We will not choose to stay in a solely asset heavy world.”
Kaz Nejatian Sep 18, 2025 ▶ 16:37 Opendoor CEO, Kaz Nejatian: OpenAI and Oracle, How Can Either Afford to Do This · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Kaz Nejatian left over $270M behind at Shopify to join Opendoor
“You know, leaving two hundred million behind at Shopify and another 70 something million in grants and what he might still get, you could only do that if you're post-economic, right?”
Jason Lemkin Sep 18, 2025 ▶ 53:13 Opendoor CEO, Kaz Nejatian: OpenAI and Oracle, How Can Either Afford to Do This · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Batchu: Opendoor never price-matched or negotiated with home sellers
“We never did a price match and we never negotiated on price with sellers of homes.”
Sri Batchu Jul 26, 2023 ▶ 3:17 Sri Batchu: Biggest Growth Lesson from Instacart & Opendoor; 70% of Experiments Should Fail | E1040 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Rabois: VC investments take 10 to 20 years to reach profitability
“Actually some have, you know, like I'm sure Opendoor actually is profitable, a firm will be profitable, but usually it's a 10 to 15, 20 year journey by the time that happens.”
Keith Rabois May 30, 2022 ▶ 3:16 Keith Rabois: The End of Woke Capitalism; Time Allocation Tips; Silicon Valley vs Miami | 20VC #891 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Held up
Rabois: Opendoor will cover all US markets except possibly Bay Area
“So literally everywhere in the United States are going to be able to, you know, buy and sell homes through Opendoor except maybe the Bay Area.”
Keith Rabois Sep 30, 2021 ▶ 26:13 20VC: The Opendoor Memo: Keith Rabois on The Origins of Opendoor from a Conversation with Peter Thiel, Why Cash is Not a Competitive Moat for Startups Today and What People Misunderstand About Black Swan Events in Real Estate and How it Impacts Opendoor
Assertion Supported
YouTube and PayPal founders helped build Opendoor's 2003 predecessor
“The logo for Home Run was designed by Chad Hurley as a side project. I got a decent part of the website was coded by Max Levchin.”
Keith Rabois Sep 30, 2021 ▶ 6:30 20VC: The Opendoor Memo: Keith Rabois on The Origins of Opendoor from a Conversation with Peter Thiel, Why Cash is Not a Competitive Moat for Startups Today and What People Misunderstand About Black Swan Events in Real Estate and How it Impacts Opendoor
Assertion Supported
Brian Tolkin: Opendoor's variations of a mortgage product failed
“Opendoor's had different variations of, you know, a mortgage product that, that didn't succeed.”
Brian Tolkin Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 20:59 Brian Tolkin, Head of Product @Opendoor: How to Hire the Best Product Teams | E1257 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Sri Batchu: Instacart was more complex than Opendoor as a four-sided marketplace
“Instacart was in some ways an even more complicated business than Opendoor because it's a four sided marketplace. We have shoppers, we have buyers, we have advertisers, and we have the retailers that are on the platform as well with various different incentive…”
Sri Batchu Jul 26, 2023 ▶ 4:23 Sri Batchu: Biggest Growth Lesson from Instacart & Opendoor; 70% of Experiments Should Fail | E1040 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Rabois: Opendoor negotiated its second funding round before launching
“So we wound up negotiating the second round pretty much before we actually launched the company.”
Keith Rabois Sep 30, 2021 ▶ 23:04 20VC: The Opendoor Memo: Keith Rabois on The Origins of Opendoor from a Conversation with Peter Thiel, Why Cash is Not a Competitive Moat for Startups Today and What People Misunderstand About Black Swan Events in Real Estate and How it Impacts Opendoor
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Spike Lipkin helped scale Opendoor to a $5B+ enterprise value
“Prior to founding Newfront, Spike was one of the first employees at Opendoor, where he helped grow the team from five people to an enterprise value of over five billion dollars today.”
Harry Stebbings Oct 16, 2020 ▶ 0:34 20VC: How To Determine The Risks To Take vs To Pass On, Should Founders Meet Investors When Not Raising & The Most Important Non-Obvious Role of the CEO with Spike Lipkin, Founder & CEO @ Newfront Insurance
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