The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lemkin: OpenAI's hardware device will launch within a year for $20
“This is going to be huge. It will launch in a year. It will be massively subsidized. So it'll be 20 bucks for this device. Okay. They will figure out the form factor. I don't know what the right combination is, whether it's embedded in your ear, like the baris…”
Lemkin: Anthropic has secured more compute capacity than OpenAI
“And now Anthropik, I hate the five D eight D chess metaphor, but now it's gonna, it's figured out a way to have more capacity than open AI.”
Emberikos: OpenAI is the only firm building OS-level sandboxing for Windows AI agents
“We're basically the only company that cares about OS level sandboxing for coding agents. For instance, there's none that exists on Windows. We're the ones building that and we're doing it in open source, so hopefully other people can use it.”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI Will Capture All Ad-Buying Value Natively Without Ad-Tech
“So I think for the paid ads, all the value that's going to be captured is going to be captured by OpenAI, and there's not going to be a optimization engine.”
Taneja: Microsoft generated the highest multiple return among OpenAI investors
“Taking that bet was hugely, hugely valuable for Microsoft. I think, and if you look at the return, by the way, if they put in twenty billion, they are the ones who have the highest multiple return as well. So it was a great investment on a financial basis and …”
Lemkin: OpenAI's stock compensation will remain above 100% of revenue this year
“Now that's a lot, but it projected it would fall to 45% this year. It's not going to happen. Now it's going to still be in the triple digits.”
O'Driscoll: AGI's arrival will be defined by Microsoft and OpenAI litigation
“My comment is we're going to hit AGI when Microsoft and OpenAI litigate what OpenAGI is.”
Lemkin: OpenAI will not reveal ChatGPT-5 this year
“It will happen, but given all the activity, it wouldn't be surprised to me if it pushes a year longer, right? ... I'm saying I think no”
Lemkin: OpenAI expects no profitability until reaching $127B in revenue
“I mean, open AI said they're not going to be profitable until one hundred and twenty seven billion in revenue. A hundred and twenty seven billion.”
O'Driscoll: First venture rounds for OpenAI and Anthropic were $23B and $4B
“The first venture round at OpenAI was twenty-three billion pre with Thrive, and the first venture round at Entropic was four billion pre with Spark and Menlo, you know, right?”
Lemkin: Masayoshi Son is OpenAI's only double-digit shareholder
“He's the only double-digit shareholder.”
Lemkin: Microsoft's OpenAI Deal Includes 10% Revenue Share Until AGI
“Getting everything they get plus 10% of all revenue until there's AGI plus the returns.”
Lemkin: OpenAI Has Had Two Non-Technical CEOs
“I think the weirdest thing in this is that for OpenAI you have a CEO and now another CEO that are both not technical.”
O'Driscoll: SpaceX and OpenAI are the only $100B+ private compounders
“It all boils, the deciding between does this strategy work or not, is other companies that compound from a hundred billion to four hundred billion in the private markets before they go public. And right now there's two. There's SpaceX, There's open AI.”
Luan: Scaling GPT-2 without architectural changes unlocked three-digit arithmetic
“When we were training GPT-II, we trained GPT-II in various different sizes. And at the smallest size, the model was just, like, unable to do three-digit arithmetic. But as the models got bigger and bigger and bigger, we didn't change anything else. We just had…”
Des Traynor: OpenAI will never build deep vertical industry integrations
“OpenAI is never going to put like five of their engineers going hard on wealth management and like, you know, banking integrations.”
Traynor: OpenAI Will Never Assign Engineers to Deep Vertical Banking Integrations
“However, I think if you find an area where they're not going to go that deep, OpenAI is never going to put like five of their engineers going hard on wealth management and like, you know, banking integrations, you know?”