The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 35 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Ross: NVIDIA will produce ~5.5M GPUs this year despite 50M die capacity
“If Nvidia wanted to, they could build fifty million of those GPU die, Per year. But they're going to build about 5.5 million GPUs this year.”
Ross: NVIDIA used misleading benchmark curves to claim 30x GPU speedup
“Like, if you look at the last GTC, there was an announcement that the latest GPUs were 30 x faster than the previous generation. And when you look at how it was done, there was this curve that looked kind of like this, and then it Basically ended here, and the…”
O'Driscoll: Nvidia Recognizes Hardware Revenue Upfront Under ASC 606 With Put-Back Rights
“They're basically, quote, selling you the chips up front, so they are going to recognize that hardware revenue up front, and then they're giving you, as the buyer, the NeoCloud, a backstop that if you can't use that compute, you get kind of put back rights on …”
O'Driscoll: NVIDIA issued a document committing up to $100B to OpenAI
“There's a piece of paper. With the NVIDIA logo on it that said we'll do up to a hundred billion, and they put it out there, and now they're like, where's my hundred billion?”
O'Driscoll: Nvidia puts will eventually be a great buy due to cycles
“At some point, NVIDIA ports will be a great buy, because every semiconductor cycle for the last 40 years has ended up in a massive downswing. I ain't buying them today.”
Nvidia Charges Gross Margins Between 78% and 85% on High-End Chips
“Well, because they want to get rid of the 78% gross margin that NVIDIA is charging. That's why it makes sense. Just like that. It might be, on the high-end chips, 85%.”
Ross: NVIDIA Will Sell Every Single GPU It Builds
“NVIDIA's gonna sell every single GPU that they build.”
Ross: NVIDIA will keep selling chips despite AI labs building custom silicon
“NVIDIA still keeps selling chips.”
Sivulka: AI shift from training to inference will destabilize Nvidia's dominance
“The shift away from training to inference as a fundamental, like, almost macro shift in how people deploy AI. I actually think that will destabilize slightly the dominance of NVIDIA chips.”
Vishria: Nvidia will not remain the only major AI infrastructure player
“I don't believe NVIDIA is going to be the only game to have content infrastructure layer.”
Matt Clifford: Next US President Will Maintain Aggressive Nvidia Export Bans
“The one bipartisan issue in Washington Is screw China. And, you know, like, it's certainly true that I remember writing about in 20, you know, 1819, about, like, Trump export controls, and what's interesting is that the Biden White House has been as aggressive…”
Traynor: Nvidia won't be the sole GPU maker in five years
“I don't think NVIDIA in five years time will be sitting here proud as the only people who can do a GPU.”
Stebbings: Nvidia licenses Poolside factory for $6B, invests $1B at $12B
“NVIDIA is paying six billion dollars to license Poolside's model factory and investing a billion dollars more at a twelve billion dollar pre-money valuation, moving a 109 engineers over to NemoTron to help build it.”
Jain: Nvidia is heavily investing in US open-source AI model development
“There's a lot of motivated parties that actually want to promote, like, including NVIDIA, for example, You know, they're putting a lot of investment in promoting, like, you know, development of great open source models in the US.”
O'Driscoll: AI capex splits 50% to Nvidia, 20% to power and networking
“All these companies are on fire because the hyperscalers and the model companies have decided to spend, you know, roughly three quarters to a trillion dollars a year building shit, and 50% of that goes to Nvidia, 10% of that goes to power, 10% of that goes to …”
O'Driscoll: Nvidia makes $14B in raw profit per gigawatt of datacenter compute
“And NVIDIA's gross margins are 70%, which means fourteen billion of that per gig is raw profit to NVIDIA.”
O'Driscoll: Amazon's $20B Trainium business diverts nearly 10% of Nvidia's revenue
“But all that said, it's still twenty billion of dollars that didn't go to Nvidia that went to Amazon. So it is at the margin meaningful. It's 10% of kind of Nvidia's revenue, a little less than 10%. So it's, and so it's not a mega competitor. It's just an in-h…”
O'Driscoll: Nvidia's $1T soundbite merely matches analyst forecasts
“So it turns out if you add 504 hundred and then you apply a salesman's roundup, you get to a trillion dollars. Another way of translating that wonderful, amazing number of a trillion dollars is the analyst forecasts for the next two or three years look roughly…”
O'Driscoll: Anthropic buys Broadcom chips to bypass Nvidia's 75% margins
“Why is Entropic buying chips from Broadcom? Answer. They don't want to pay 75% gross margins to Nvidia.”
Boland: NVIDIA Is Re-Architecting GPUs to Optimize for Inference
“They are making a bunch of architectural changes to GPUs to make them better and better inference.”
Ross: Inference Accounts For Roughly 40% Of Nvidia's Market
“Right now, about 40% of their, you know, market is inference.”
Brian Halligan notes Nvidia's Jensen Huang publicly criticizes his 50 direct reports
“One of the things he does is he criticizes in public. Okay, so he's got his team, he's got 40 direct reports, which is pretty weird, or 50 direct reports, and if somebody says somebody disagrees with or does something that he didn't like, he will in front of e…”
Eisenberg: Mellanox technology is the backbone for NVIDIA's AI scaling
“Yael Waldman's company Mellanox was purchased by NVIDIA, and that's really the backbone that enables NVIDIA to scale for AI.”
Nvidia Reported $96.2B Quarter and Acquired Hugging Face for $12.9B
“Jensen standing on stage with 96.2 billion dollar quarter and immediately went shopping nearing the thirteen billion dollar price tag with the 12.9 billion that they paid for hugging face, which was confirmed just after we did last week's recording.”
Nvidia Projected 70% Revenue Growth for Fiscal Year Ending Jan 2028
“And also, they took the rare step of projecting 70% revenue growth for next fiscal year, ending Jan 20 28, way above the 44% street expected.”
O'Driscoll: Only Nvidia and Google outperformed the S&P in last 18 months
“Over the last 18 months since 2025, only two of the Mag seven have outperformed the S&P. It's NVIDIA and Google”
The original SoftBank Vision Fund correctly identified the massive AI opportunity
“They were early to figuring out that there would be a huge opportunity in AI. So, you know, they famously were in NVIDIA in, in that fund you know, and they did some really good investments, like Slack, like Garnet.”
Rory O'Driscoll: Nvidia's P/E ratio is lower than Costco's
“The P.E. On NVIDIA, to give that sound bite that I love, it's lower than the P.E. On Costco, right?”
O'Driscoll: Nvidia repurchased $9B in stock last quarter with $60B authorized
“They bought nine billion of stock back last quarter. I would have, you know, which is just interesting at this period in the cycle, and they've authorized a sixty billion buyback program.”
Guy Podjarny: Nvidia is building a cloud to leverage chip lead
“They know that the clouds, for instance, have distribution advantages, and so they're building a cloud. They're using their semiconductor advantage.”
Mensch: NVIDIA roadmap delivers 30% compute cost reduction every two years
“The cost of compute reduces over time, just based on hardware costs. It reduces around 30% every two years if you follow NVIDIA roadmap. For the same amount of flops.”
O'Driscoll: NVIDIA operates at 75% gross margins and $100B cash flow
“They have a small number of customers Whom they charge 75% gross margins to and kick off a hundred billion a year in cash, right?”
Lemkin: Nvidia free cash flow surged from $3.8B in FY23 to $60B in FY25
“NVIDIA fiscal year, 2023, 3.8 billion dollars in free cash flow fiscal 2023. Pretty good, right? 3.8 billion. Fiscal 2024, twenty seven billion. Fiscal 2025, sixty billion”
Wood: FAANGs, Microsoft, and Nvidia made up nearly 50% of Nasdaq 100 in 2021
“Last year the market reached all-time highs in twenty-twenty-one as we were selling off, and it was the Fangs, it was Microsoft, it was Nvidia, and those, if you look at the Nasdaq 100, account for, account ed at that time, for nearly 50% of that index”