The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 180 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 25 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Atallah: Nvidia prioritizes avoiding customer concentration in GPU allocations
“Like one of NVIDIA's top priorities is not having customer concentration. They want lots of customers to all have like separate, like allocations of GPUs.”
Angelopoulos: Open-source AI growth reduces Nvidia's revenue concentration
“Of course, Jensen is in some sense self-serving with this letter, because the more open source models are developed, the more companies are going to be training on GPUs. They're going to be fine tuning on their own data. And it's just more and more spend. It d…”
O'Driscoll: Only Nvidia and Google outperformed the S&P in last 18 months
“Over the last 18 months since 2025, only two of the Mag seven have outperformed the S&P. It's NVIDIA and Google”
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang maintains extremely fast response times to founders
“And so, and Jensen, NVIDIA is one of our investors, and Jensen told me this, he once called me at midnight, and I was like, on his way home, cold call, and I knew it was him and I picked it up, and it was awesome... He was calling me back Because of an email I…”
Midha: AI Compute Is Non-Fungible Across Nvidia Chip Generations
“Computer is not fungible today. So forget fungibility of compute across different manufacturers, like NVIDIA and AMD. Within a manufacturer, NVIDIA chips, for example. The H 100, the GB 200, the GB 300, these are all completely different chip types. So if you …”
Stebbings: Nvidia acquired Groq for $20B cash at 3x valuation markup
“Grok being acquired for twenty billion in cash. It happened just before Christmas. Chamath obviously coming out as one of the big winners. Price is three X more than the last round price.”
O'Driscoll: Bankers Will Use Groq's $20B Deal as Cerebras Valuation Comp
“So from the banker process of, you know, you use comps to justify value, now you've got the world's best comp. Right? And believe me, they'll be using it, right?”
The original SoftBank Vision Fund correctly identified the massive AI opportunity
“They were early to figuring out that there would be a huge opportunity in AI. So, you know, they famously were in NVIDIA in, in that fund you know, and they did some really good investments, like Slack, like Garnet.”
Rory O'Driscoll: Nvidia's P/E ratio is lower than Costco's
“The P.E. On NVIDIA, to give that sound bite that I love, it's lower than the P.E. On Costco, right?”
Rory O'Driscoll: Nvidia customers will not abandon CUDA due to switching costs
“For most users, because they have such dominance, such validation of the CUDA software layer, for most customers, it's going to be too much brain debt to switch from the cheap, you know, the GPU you know and love to something new, right? Because there's probab…”
Feldman: Cerebras sales would default to NVIDIA without 10x superiority
“Every dollar we sell is a dollar that if we didn't work at it, if we didn't think, if we didn't invent, if we weren't 10 times better would default to NVIDIA.”
O'Driscoll: Nvidia repurchased $9B in stock last quarter with $60B authorized
“They bought nine billion of stock back last quarter. I would have, you know, which is just interesting at this period in the cycle, and they've authorized a sixty billion buyback program.”
Deeter: Amazon, Google, and AMD chipsets are challenging Nvidia's market dominance
“I do think that we're also getting many more hardware approaches and solutions out there. So that it's not as wonderful as NVIDIA is. It's not just an NVIDIA world anymore. And the chip sets from Amazon and Google and AMD and others are becoming quite capable.”
NVIDIA's Financials Show Negative Revenue Growth Every Three Years
“NVIDIA is a cyclical business at the end of the day. You look at their historical financials over the past 20 years, essentially like every three years, they've had extreme negative year over year revenue growth. Now it rebounds, right? But this is a hardware …”
Tenev: Retail investors lack sub-trillion AI stock investment opportunities
“You've got Tesla, where AI is maybe I don't know, 10, 20% of the story there. So you don't have too many opportunities at sub trillion valuations. So when CoreWeave comes along, that's like AI exposure at a lower level, and people are interested in that.”
Torres: Nvidia is the best 10-year stock hold due to compute demand
“I'm scared of the giants, they're not gonna last, but Nvidia, I think Compute, it's gonna, we're thirsty for Compute.”
Morin: Nvidia stock remains a better buy than AMD due to supply
“Probably I would go today, at least I would go with Nvidia still.”
Ross: Customers buy both Groq and NVIDIA GPUs rather than replacing Groq
“We don't really have people saying, you know, we're gonna buy GPUs instead of you. We do have people saying we're gonna buy both.”
Hoffman: Nvidia will remain strong despite tech giants building rival chips
“So both, NVIDIA's business will continue to go very strongly because they have an amazing Lead, currently, in amazing chips, and there is you know, massive demand for their chips for doing compute, and many players, Google, Amazon, others, including AMD, are b…”
Podjarny: Nvidia's revenue is largely secured by existing advance commitments
“They sold a lot of commitments already, and so I think a good amount of their revenue is pretty guaranteed”
Guy Podjarny: Nvidia is building a cloud to leverage chip lead
“They know that the clouds, for instance, have distribution advantages, and so they're building a cloud. They're using their semiconductor advantage.”
Eiso Kant: NVIDIA, Google, and Amazon Lead AI Hardware Volume
“The reason I mentioned those three specifically is that they are all building extremely large volume of chips. And constantly iterating on faster and better and better generations of chips for training and for inference. They're, for me, the three primary play…”
Nvidia GPUs yield 2x AI training performance gain every two years
“Pretty much what we've seen consistently with every two-year generation of training from NVIDIA is about a two X, one and a half to two X, you know, performance increase. But training is about two X every two years.”
Cahn: Nvidia's fat gross margins will inevitably draw heavy competition
“NVIDIA earns a big gross margin. And when you, when anyone sees a fat gross margin in a big market, people come chasing.”
Cahn: Nvidia will continue to surprise positively on chip performance
“The price to performance ratio continues to improve. I don't see that stopping. NVIDIA is a fantastic company. They've, Have a track record of innovating. They have a track record of new products. You better believe Jensen's driving his team super hard on what…”
Aaron Levie: Jensen Huang's 5-to-10-Year Tech View Is Unparalleled
“His window into, you know, five or 10 years out in, in tech is, is unparalleled right now.”
Mensch: NVIDIA roadmap delivers 30% compute cost reduction every two years
“The cost of compute reduces over time, just based on hardware costs. It reduces around 30% every two years if you follow NVIDIA roadmap. For the same amount of flops.”
Harry Stebbings admits he wrongly thought Nvidia was overpriced last year
“I'm just forever, I'm forever stuck, because I've always looked at NVIDIA and gone, God, that's overpriced. And I've done that for the last year. And I've been proved thoroughly wrong, clearly, in my expectation that it's overpriced.”
Haas: NVIDIA Never Used Org Charts Under Jensen Huang
“Anecdotally, for example, we never had organization charts. We didn't print them out. Jensen didn't like using words like divisions in terms of describing different operating groups, because for him, it was one NVIDIA.”
O'Driscoll: NVIDIA operates at 75% gross margins and $100B cash flow
“They have a small number of customers Whom they charge 75% gross margins to and kick off a hundred billion a year in cash, right?”
Siddharth: 39% of Nvidia's revenue comes from just two clients
“Nvidia, for Nvidia 39% of their revenue comes from two clients, right? And roughly 50% was like four clients.”
Lemkin: Nvidia free cash flow surged from $3.8B in FY23 to $60B in FY25
“NVIDIA fiscal year, 2023, 3.8 billion dollars in free cash flow fiscal 2023. Pretty good, right? 3.8 billion. Fiscal 2024, twenty seven billion. Fiscal 2025, sixty billion”
Microsoft is the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund's largest equity position
“Our biggest position is Microsoft. We have big, very big positions in you know, Nvidia, AMD. Alphabet. You name them, we have. Those are our biggest positions.”
Wood: FAANGs, Microsoft, and Nvidia made up nearly 50% of Nasdaq 100 in 2021
“Last year the market reached all-time highs in twenty-twenty-one as we were selling off, and it was the Fangs, it was Microsoft, it was Nvidia, and those, if you look at the Nasdaq 100, account for, account ed at that time, for nearly 50% of that index”
Alex Mittal expects APIs to unlock complex compute power and data for developers
“The other is actually fundamentally, we're seeing the exposing complex, like computing capabilities and data that is inaccessible to most people through APIs. And so like by analogy, if you're at CES, like NVIDIA announced this cloud gaming service, which is n…”