The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 60 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
The original SoftBank Vision Fund correctly identified the massive AI opportunity
“They were early to figuring out that there would be a huge opportunity in AI. So, you know, they famously were in NVIDIA in, in that fund you know, and they did some really good investments, like Slack, like Garnet.”
David George Dec 15, 2025 ▶ 36:26 a16z's David George on the Most Controversial Bet at a16z & Do Margins and Revenue Matter in AI? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Rory O'Driscoll: Nvidia's P/E ratio is lower than Costco's
“The P.E. On NVIDIA, to give that sound bite that I love, it's lower than the P.E. On Costco, right?”
Rory O'Driscoll Nov 27, 2025 ▶ 0:00 Anthropic Raises $30B from Microsoft & NVIDIA & NVIDIA’s Core Business Faces TPU Threat · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Nvidia repurchased $9B in stock last quarter with $60B authorized
“They bought nine billion of stock back last quarter. I would have, you know, which is just interesting at this period in the cycle, and they've authorized a sixty billion buyback program.”
Rory O'Driscoll Sep 25, 2025 ▶ 16:50 The Impact of H1B Visas on Startups in the US & NVIDIA Invests $100BN Into OpenAI · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Partly supported
NVIDIA's Financials Show Negative Revenue Growth Every Three Years
“NVIDIA is a cyclical business at the end of the day. You look at their historical financials over the past 20 years, essentially like every three years, they've had extreme negative year over year revenue growth. Now it rebounds, right? But this is a hardware …”
Miles Dieffenbach Aug 4, 2025 ▶ 1:19:07 Miles Dieffenbach: Inside Carnegie Mellon’s $4BN Endowment & The Math Behind DPI, TVPI, Illiquidity · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Morin: AMD AI chips are 30% cheaper than Nvidia GPUs
“These chips are 30% cheaper than Nvidia's.”
Steeve Morin Feb 24, 2025 ▶ 47:07 Steeve Morin: Why Google Will Win the AI Arms Race & OpenAI Will Not | E1262 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Guy Podjarny: Nvidia is building a cloud to leverage chip lead
“They know that the clouds, for instance, have distribution advantages, and so they're building a cloud. They're using their semiconductor advantage.”
Guy Podjarny Nov 29, 2024 ▶ 1:42 Guy Podjarny: The Future of AI Software Development - What is Real & What is BS | E1232 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Partly supported
Nvidia GPUs yield 2x AI training performance gain every two years
“Pretty much what we've seen consistently with every two-year generation of training from NVIDIA is about a two X, one and a half to two X, you know, performance increase. But training is about two X every two years.”
Eiso Kant Oct 7, 2024 ▶ 39:22 Eiso Kant, CTO @Poolside: Raising $600M To Compete in the Race for AGI | E1211 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Mensch: NVIDIA roadmap delivers 30% compute cost reduction every two years
“The cost of compute reduces over time, just based on hardware costs. It reduces around 30% every two years if you follow NVIDIA roadmap. For the same amount of flops.”
Arthur Mensch Apr 29, 2024 ▶ 22:23 Arthur Mensch: Open vs Closed - Who Wins and Mistral's Position | E1146 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: NVIDIA operates at 75% gross margins and $100B cash flow
“They have a small number of customers Whom they charge 75% gross margins to and kick off a hundred billion a year in cash, right?”
Rory O'Driscoll Jan 8, 2026 ▶ 4:08 Groq’s $20BN NVIDIA Deal | Why Sam Altman Doesn’t Care About Dilution & Invisible Unemployment 2026 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Partly supported
Siddharth: 39% of Nvidia's revenue comes from just two clients
“Nvidia, for Nvidia 39% of their revenue comes from two clients, right? And roughly 50% was like four clients.”
Jonathan Siddharth Dec 1, 2025 ▶ 41:20 Turing CEO Jonathan Siddharth: Who Wins in Data Labelling & Why 99% of Knowledge Work Will Disappear · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Nvidia free cash flow surged from $3.8B in FY23 to $60B in FY25
“NVIDIA fiscal year, 2023, 3.8 billion dollars in free cash flow fiscal 2023. Pretty good, right? 3.8 billion. Fiscal 2024, twenty seven billion. Fiscal 2025, sixty billion”
Jason Lemkin Sep 25, 2025 ▶ 16:07 The Impact of H1B Visas on Startups in the US & NVIDIA Invests $100BN Into OpenAI · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Wood: FAANGs, Microsoft, and Nvidia made up nearly 50% of Nasdaq 100 in 2021
“Last year the market reached all-time highs in twenty-twenty-one as we were selling off, and it was the Fangs, it was Microsoft, it was Nvidia, and those, if you look at the Nasdaq 100, account for, account ed at that time, for nearly 50% of that index”
Cathie Wood Nov 14, 2022 ▶ 18:21 Cathie Wood: Elon & Twitter; Why Facebook is a Value Stock Now; ARK's Performance | 20VC #949 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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