why aren't all 60 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
The original SoftBank Vision Fund correctly identified the massive AI opportunity
“They were early to figuring out that there would be a huge opportunity in AI. So, you know, they famously were in NVIDIA in, in that fund you know, and they did some really good investments, like Slack, like Garnet.”
Assertion Supported
Rory O'Driscoll: Nvidia's P/E ratio is lower than Costco's
“The P.E. On NVIDIA, to give that sound bite that I love, it's lower than the P.E. On Costco, right?”
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Nvidia repurchased $9B in stock last quarter with $60B authorized
“They bought nine billion of stock back last quarter. I would have, you know, which is just interesting at this period in the cycle, and they've authorized a sixty billion buyback program.”
Assertion Partly supported
NVIDIA's Financials Show Negative Revenue Growth Every Three Years
“NVIDIA is a cyclical business at the end of the day. You look at their historical financials over the past 20 years, essentially like every three years, they've had extreme negative year over year revenue growth. Now it rebounds, right? But this is a hardware …”
Assertion Supported
Morin: AMD AI chips are 30% cheaper than Nvidia GPUs
“These chips are 30% cheaper than Nvidia's.”
Assertion Supported
Guy Podjarny: Nvidia is building a cloud to leverage chip lead
“They know that the clouds, for instance, have distribution advantages, and so they're building a cloud. They're using their semiconductor advantage.”
Assertion Partly supported
Nvidia GPUs yield 2x AI training performance gain every two years
“Pretty much what we've seen consistently with every two-year generation of training from NVIDIA is about a two X, one and a half to two X, you know, performance increase. But training is about two X every two years.”
Assertion Supported
Mensch: NVIDIA roadmap delivers 30% compute cost reduction every two years
“The cost of compute reduces over time, just based on hardware costs. It reduces around 30% every two years if you follow NVIDIA roadmap. For the same amount of flops.”
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: NVIDIA operates at 75% gross margins and $100B cash flow
“They have a small number of customers Whom they charge 75% gross margins to and kick off a hundred billion a year in cash, right?”
Assertion Partly supported
Siddharth: 39% of Nvidia's revenue comes from just two clients
“Nvidia, for Nvidia 39% of their revenue comes from two clients, right? And roughly 50% was like four clients.”
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Nvidia free cash flow surged from $3.8B in FY23 to $60B in FY25
“NVIDIA fiscal year, 2023, 3.8 billion dollars in free cash flow fiscal 2023. Pretty good, right? 3.8 billion. Fiscal 2024, twenty seven billion. Fiscal 2025, sixty billion”
Assertion Supported
Wood: FAANGs, Microsoft, and Nvidia made up nearly 50% of Nasdaq 100 in 2021
“Last year the market reached all-time highs in twenty-twenty-one as we were selling off, and it was the Fangs, it was Microsoft, it was Nvidia, and those, if you look at the Nasdaq 100, account for, account ed at that time, for nearly 50% of that index”