The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 91 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 4 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lemkin: Figma lost $500M+ failing to launch design-to-code natively
“What Figma missed is I create this design. It's beautiful. I loop in the product team to approve it. And then I click a button, which it says push into full production prototype. And it just works. It works like, and you can, and the irony is Replit and Lovabl…”
Lemkin: Figma missed $300M-$400M in AI prototyping revenue to Replit and Lovable
“That lovable and replet should not be owning product prototyping and development for product people. Figma should own this. They don't. They missed a whole generation. Here. And that's the, that ties into all of this. Figma, can't argue with Figma today. That …”
Harries: Retool is 'dead at the wheel' amid AI transition
“And I think Retool is kind of dead at the wheel at the moment. I don't hear the recent things they've been launching, and so I could imagine Loveball going in that direction.”
Lemkin: Anthropic Solved AI Coding; Cursor and Replit Just Grafted On
“Claude figured that out. Cursor didn't figure this out. Replit and Lovable and Bolt didn't figure it out. I can tell you the story. Claude figured it out. Anthropic, the guys, you know, once they quit OpenAI, they figured it out and everyone grafted on this, i…”
Osika: 50% chance the best AI model comes from China
“I do think there's like a fifty-fifty chance they will have the best model. We'll be using a Chinese model at some point, because...”
Harries: Retool Is Dead at the Wheel Compared to AI App Builders
“And I think Retool is kind of dead at the wheel at the moment. I don't hear the recent things they've been launching, and so I could imagine Loveball going in that direction.”
Osika: Lovable's 85% month-one retention outperforms ChatGPT
“We have month one retention that's better than ChatGPT's month one retention on paying customers, and so it's about 85%.”
Lemkin: Replit, Lovable, and Bolt Now Have Massive Moats
“Replit and lovable of a year ago and bolt were not a moat today. They have massive moats. And so I think it could easily happen with an instinct. All the use cases that has to accomplish become a moat.”
Lemkin: Linear at $2.5B Will Look Cheap as AI Coding Explodes
“This will seem cheap, When Replit's at fifteen billion, Lovable's at a hundred billion, everyone's out there because Linear will be the one powering them all.”
Figma missed market share later captured by Replit and Lovable
“I firmly believe a big chunk of Replit and Lovable could have been Figma's if they'd done it.”
Lovable scaled from zero to $300M ARR within one year
“Where you see a company go from zero to something like three hundred million in a year. I think we intercepted them around, well, we kind of got, tried to get in when they were around 30, 30 of error, but we around, we did was around one 50.”
Stebbings: 20VC's biggest regret was not playing momentum in hot AI rounds
“My biggest regret with our Series A fund is not being more elastic, disregarding the Series A mandate, and just saying I'm going to leverage the brand and the access that I have, arrogantly, forgive me for that, to get into super hot companies like your 11 Lab…”
Verna: Constant product release noise drives SaaS retention and user resurrection
“I know that that constant noise is part of our retention strategy. That constant noise is what drives a lot of resurrection for us as well, because people feel like it's a living, breathing thing that is constantly growing and evolving, and they always want to…”
Verna: Lovable's primary marketing cost is its freemium product, not ads
“A lot of our costs are within our freemium, not with our paid marketing, not with employees, not with marketing or sales budgets. It's with Freemium, because we view Freemium as actually marketing channel.”
Verna: Ad-hoc purchases alongside subscriptions drive incremental ARR and retention
“Allowing flexibility in your monetization model for ad hoc purchases can mean the world of incrementality for your overall monetization capture potential. We just introduced top ups at lovable and it's been absolutely wild because in every other job I've ever …”
Verna: Every Lovable employee is expected to ship code to production
“Every single employee at Lovable expected to ship code to production.”
Rampell: Permanent systems of record outperform hyper-growth AI wrappers long term
“I would much rather have a slower growing, permanent system of record that will never get ripped out than the fastest growing thing on the planet that has 9000 competitors that are all built and lovable by 17 year olds.”
Harries: AI will push product managers into growth or product engineering
“Yeah, I think PMs move to either growth, so you combine the PM role with marketing, and depending on your size and how strong your engineers are, you do more or less of the PM, or many PMs will actually move towards product engineering, which is they're somewh…”
O'Driscoll: Invest in Front-End Apps Over Infrastructure in Risky Categories
“I'll say Lovable. And I'll tell you why. I think Superbase is benefiting by the trend of vibe coding. And Lovable is a bet fundamentally. It's in the front end monetizing on vibe coding. One of two things happens. Either vibe coding is a category or it's not. …”
Shlomo: Base44 is not worried about rivals Lovable, Replit, or Bolt
“I'm not worried about those three.”
Lemkin: Replit and Lovable achieve over 50% gross margins using cheap models
“Replit and Lovable, frankly, are using cheap models. Most people don't know or care, and they're well marked up. The margins are north of 50, the gross margins, okay?”
Harry Stebbings: AI coding startups pay 80% of pass-through revenue to Anthropic
“If you look at a Rapplet or a Lovable, 80% of their pass-through is too anthropic.”
Lemkin: Lovable and Replit both reach nine-figure revenues
“And that's why lovable and Replit are in a death match. And it's very powerful. They're both at nine figures in revenue. They won't kill each other.”
Lemkin: Top AI startups Glean, Lovable, and Replit are unacquirable
“In the age of AI, you can't buy glean's unsellable, unacquirable, right? Lovable's unacquirable. Replets unacquirable.”
Lemkin: Replit raised at $3B valuation with similar $100M ARR to Lovable
“13 days later, the exact same company called Replit. That's the one I use. Same company closes at three billion. Basically the same ARR, basically the same company.”
Osika: AI startups must build broad UX flywheels before launching autonomous agents
“In the context of lovable I thought we should be building an agent Before, like, the models were ready for it, and because the models were starting to get optimized for an agentic system, and what I realized is that, no, no, no, you need to have a product that…”
Osika: Majority of Lovable's paid usage revenue goes to AI compute
“I don't give you the exact numbers, but if you look at the paid usage, it's majority, it's not everything.”
Osika: Lovable plans to spend $100M hiring top model-training talent
“And we have to do it both with like how we build this agentic chain and over time in building absolutely world-class paying a hundred million dollars for getting the people that train the models. So, so that's on the horizon for us to get it to like be hyper-p…”
Osika: OpenAI will be a bigger competitor to Lovable than Anthropic
“OpenAI is doing that better than Anthropic. So I see them as a more serious competitor in, in, in 12 months.”
Osika: Lovable will be the most-used human-AI interface within 5 years
“We're the mostly used interface for humans to AI.”
Lemkin: Figma and AI coding tools will compete within 12 months
“Today, they're great partners. It doesn't make sense that they will be great partners for prototyping in 12 months. It makes no sense.”
Lemkin: Lovable will reach $400M ARR by end of next year
“First, I have no doubts. That's easier to do the math. One to a hundred in six months. I mean, that would be a colossal F-up if it doesn't get to 400.”
Stebbings invested $12M in Lovable, citing consumer brand leadership
“Why did I write a twelve million dollar check into Lovable? I think very much in the same way that ChatGPT owns the consumer brand for that front end OS for the modern consumer, I think Lovable's reached escape velocity with the consumer brand in this space”
Stebbings: Lovable scaled from $4M to $19M ARR during funding round
“Jason, when I did the last round of Lovable, it was a two hundred million price, and I did it at a four million in revenue. By the time the deal was closed, it was at nineteen million in revenue.”
Lemkin views Replit and Lovable as cheap at $2B valuations
“If I could invest in Replit or Lovable at two billion compared to Windsurf, it seems like a much better deal. Like, I think it's, I think it seems cheap.”
Mohan: Non-developer AI coding tools and developer AI IDEs will converge
“I think with time, they're going to need to build out more and more tunables, more and more ways to configure the product with time. But I think for us, if we can deeply understand code, like large code bases, it'll naturally follow that with very little effor…”
Harries: Sub-100% user retention in prosumer AI is acceptable if viral expansion keeps NRR over 100%
“And I think when you look at consumer and prosumer, yes, for that individual user, you may only be on 87% revenue retention, but what then happens is you build a product on Lovable, you then share it with a bunch of your friends, a handful more people sign up …”
Biilmann: AI Web Builders Will Force Brands to Adopt Novel Interfaces
“When the cost of building an e-commerce that looks like any of the current brands today goes down to like, just Ask Bolt to do it for you. Ask Lovable to do it for you. And you have that. Those brands are going to have to come up with something much more engag…”
Osika: Lovable rejected Y Combinator due to equity dilution and distraction
“We felt that at best YC would be a lot of dilution and some acceleration with a lot of dilution and some acceleration. And at worst it would be a distraction to go through SF and go through all of these, like, fun things that happen when you go to YC. And we j…”
Stebbings: Lovable reached a $13.5B valuation with $600M to $700M ARR
“And suddenly it's a 13 and a half billion dollar business at 607 hundred million of ARR.”
Adding LLMs to Existing Design Tools Will Beat AI-Native Platforms
“So with Lovable, it's much harder because they haven't built the human centric software. I think it's much easier to add the LLM on top, especially as it becomes commoditized by all these major models.”
Stebbings: Lovable Reached $500M ARR With 146 Employees
“Lovable, so literally just before we came on, Lovable hit five hundred million of error. The number, number was wrong. So five hundred million of error with 146 employees.”
Verna: Modern software is judged by emotional resonance over core functionality
“It's no longer about the software functionality that you're trying to grow. You're really trying to create what I call minimum lovable product out of every single little thing that you touch because software is now almost being judged by the emotion that it ca…”
Verna: Startups can no longer win by simply copying competitors
“I think that when the functionality was very expensive to produce, we could afford to obsess about competitors a little bit more. With the functionality and the speed of development happening so much faster now, it almost paves the way for you to just have a v…”
Stebbings: Lovable has surpassed $350 million in ARR
“They are now at over three hundred and fifty million in ARR.”