why aren't all 23 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Lambda School Targets $10B Annual Student Income Increase by 2030
“We hold pretty sacred our ten-year goal at Lambda School of Increasing our student incomes over the next 10 years, so by 2030, by ten billion a year annually.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Allred: Lambda School Will Reach 500,000 Students Annually in Five Years
“Five years from now, we're probably half a million students a year.”
Insight
Allred: Raise Maximum Capital Once Unit Economics Yield 3-4x Return
“We got to a point where I knew that if you give me a dollar today, I can give you back maybe it's three or four dollars a couple of years from now, and when you have a machine that's working like that, you really should be raising as much as you can.”
Disclosure
Lambda School Expanded Too Quickly Across Four Continents
“And so we had five different tracks running. We were on three different continents. We were spinning up in India as well. So we're starting on our Fourth continent. So we're in the U S Europe, Africa, and we're starting in Asia as well. And we just kind of did…”
Disclosure
Allred: Lambda School Has Passed on Opportunities to Sell the Company
“We've had chances to sell Lambda School.”
Opinion
Allred: Lambda School Erred by Adopting Uber's Decentralized Operational Model
“But I think we picked the wrong one. We went with the Uber model. And the educational model is so sensitive to changes and so sensitive to experience that you can't Really get away with that.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Carlson: Direct-to-consumer higher ed struggles with rising Google and Facebook CAC
“Our data shows that schools that are trying to acquire students in a B to C format today are struggling across the board, and I actually think while Lambda's newer to the game, you look at some of the older coding boot camps, they are also struggling as they'r…”
Insight
Allred: Faster Product Shipping Results in Higher Long-Term Quality
“I actually think that the faster you ship things, the higher quality they will be over time, and that if you focus on making things really high quality and delaying the time to ship, it will be lower quality overall.”
Disclosure
Gonto: Vercel hired Apple Genius and bootcamp grads as Product Advocates
“For example, what we did was we hire people from Apple Genius Bar or Best Buy Tech Support or people who did like Lambda School or some CS Bootcamps.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lambda School Chat Launch Triggered Backlash After Bypassing Customer Service
“At Lambda School, we implemented a new, like, chat opportunity for our students, and we didn't loop in customer service, and customer service had, like, an entirely different chat element. And so it just, like, caused a ton of backlash, like, across the compan…”
Insight
Consistency Matters More Than Minor Updates in Education Products
“And what's more important when you're in a learning state is expectations being met exactly more so than it getting marginally better and whiplashing you.”
What-if
Lambda School Couldn't Have Succeeded as a Fully Remote Company Initially
“I know that Lambda would not be what it is today if we were doing it all remotely, just random lunches and dinners and meeting up with other founders and investors and people that I really admire was really, really unique.”
Insight
Low-Income Individuals Must Constantly Hyper-Focus on Downside Risk
“But when you are poor, or when your salary or your income is low, I mean, most people don't even have salaries, they have incomes or wages coming into Lambda, you have to think really, really hard about downside risk, because any little thing that goes wrong t…”
Disclosure
Allred Has Taken Almost Zero Secondary Liquidity in Lambda School
“Transparently, I have done basically zero secondary relative to where Lambda is at”
Assertion Supported
Allred: Lambda School Raised Its Series B Without a Pitch Deck
“We didn't have a pitch deck for a series B.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lambda School Converted 2,000 of 7,000 Leads With Free Upfront Tuition
“So we sent out an email, you know, making it six months long, and we're teaching computer science because we thought that's something that code bootcamps were lacking, and it was going to be completely free until you get a job, basically our model today, and t…”
Insight
Allred: A Small Financial Cushion Dramatically Increases Founder Risk Tolerance
“I think people vastly underestimate the psychological impact of having just a little bit of money, even if it's a couple thousand dollars between how you can think and take risks and, What your life is like from having no money to having just a little bit of m…”
Disclosure
Lambda School Spent Around $100,000 Per Month on Marketing
“So we weren't, we were spending maybe like a hundred grand a month, right?”
Disclosure
Lambda's Twitter 'Building in Public' Brand Was Completely Unscripted
“When we got into YC, I was like, okay, I need to like cut back On Twitter and just be heads down, but it was kind of fun to share what was happening. So it was just like an honest outgrowth of my personality that I thought it was fun to share stuff as things w…”
Disclosure
Allred: I Operate at Lightning Pace but Struggle With Documentation
“I tend to move really fast and do things 80% of the way and jump from thing to thing at kind of lightning pace. I'm not very good at finishing things or making sure things are well documented. I'm not I'm not as good at thinking about the edge cases of what I …”
Disclosure
Lambda School Held Most Series A Capital When Raising Series B
“But we were not planning on raising a series B. We still had the vast majority of our series A in the bank, actually.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
One-Third of Lambda School On-Site Interviews Yielded Hires
“And we found that of those companies that we brought in, they would stay, they would interview students, and a third of those interviews ended up being hires.”
Disclosure
Lambda School Used an AngelList Syndicate for Post-YC Seed Round
“So we did a syndicate through AngelList, which is nice from cap table construction perspective, because it's just one name on the cap table.”