The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 20 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Seibert: On-device Apple LLMs could make OpenAI obsolete within five years
“I bet Apple can and will. And so if you project forward five years, if they get to the point where they can run a sufficiently large LLM on your iPhone, then OpenAI is out of the picture. You don't even need to hit their servers. It's just on your phone.”
Uretsky: Apple will never match iPhone scale with another product category
“So when I read online about, you know, all of these different pundits talking about, you know, what's Apple's next big thing, my answer is there isn't one, because it has nothing to do with Apple. It has to do with the market. If you can't Find another thing t…”
Green: Only three $100B+ companies were created post-iPhone
“You know, since the iPhone came out in 2007, 2006, whatever it was, there's only been three companies built that did not exist before. That were a hundred billion dollar companies. ByteDance, Pindo Doe, and Uber.”
Seibert: On-device iPhone LLMs will make OpenAI obsolete within five years
“I bet Apple can and will, and so if you project forward five years, if they get to the point where they can run a sufficiently large LLM on your iPhone, then OpenAI is out of the picture. Don't even need to hit their servers. It's just on your phone.”
O'Driscoll: Apple will raise iPhone prices rather than accept lower margins
“Specifically what it's going to mean is Apple is clearly decided wisely not to swallow the loss and lower their margins. They're just going to raise prices. And they'll sell a few less iPhones because it's probably, you know, there's some price elasticity. And…”
O'Driscoll: Rising memory chip costs will drive up iPhone prices next year
“I think that you're going to see some impact of that right down to the price of your iPhone next year.”
Lemkin: Apple will announce US iPhone assembly operations within the year
“I think, listen, I don't, I would have to do more analysis to see if, it's not possible, right? If it's close to impossible, but announcing it and beginning a process, you might have to do it. You just might have to do it. I'm going to go yes.”
Stebbings: 2008 startup success came from platform shifts, not macro downturn
“For me, I strongly push back on that because I think they're conflating the macro economy with the technology advancements of GPS, of the rise of the app store and of the iPhone with the macro environment that was also simultaneously happening at the same time…”
Lemkin: iPhone and App Store drive 75% of Apple revenue
“25% of the revenue is from the App Store, 40% of its profit, right? And 75% of its revenue is iPhone and App Store.”
Hyman: AI will be the biggest business operational shift since the iPhone
“There are gonna be companies that are AI beneficiaries, and then there are gonna be companies and full industries that are just decimated by AI. I am of the mindset that AI is going to be the biggest change to how we operate businesses, you know, since, since …”
Fadell: Apple scrapped two and a half iPhone versions before shipping
“That was what we did on the iPhone. We had two and a half versions really of the iPhone before it shipped, because we kept revving it, getting to a certain point, throwing it away, trying again, getting a certain point, throwing it away because we make constra…”
Fadell: General Magic Built the iPhone 15 Years Too Early
“Followed my heroes out to Silicon Valley at a company called General Magic, who was the Mac team creating the iPhone just 15 years before the iPhone came out. We were doing it too early.”
Riding a Jump e-bike felt like using the first iPhone
“And it was the closest thing to trying an iPhone for the first time. It was that level of experience. And I hadn't had that in almost a decade.”
Uretsky: Massive business scale requires intersecting necessity with customer love
“Really what gave them this gigantic market cap of being the largest company in the world was the fact that they found this intersection of need and love, right? Everybody in the modern day world needs a cell phone. They made a product that is absolutely loved,…”
Hyatt: Oculus Was the Most Transformative Hardware Since the iPhone
“Then you're like, wow, this is actually maybe the most transformative piece of hardware that I've touched since the iPhone.”
Ljungman: Most billion-dollar tech companies were created the year iPhone launched
“I think it really, the dawn of the iPhone was pretty amazing, and I think, if you look statistically, the year that the iPhone was launched is also the year that most billion dollar companies were created, and I think that that might be just a You know, that j…”
Lazarte: Brex co-founder Pedro Franceschi discovered early iPhone jailbreak
“That, like, back in the day, he was the first person to find one of the jail breaks for the iPhone, right?”
Porteous: Skyhook Wireless Provided Location Software for Early Apple iPhones
“Market-leading chip companies lost 90% of their value and were replaced by software alternatives, including by one of our companies, Skyhook Wireless, which was on the iPhone.”