why aren't all 31 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Databricks rejected a $10M on-premise deal from JPMorgan to stay cloud-only
“They're like, we'll give you ten million bucks to put this, and at the time, we're less than a million, like our whole first-year target's like ten million, to put it on-prem. And Ali was like, no way, we're not doing anything on-prem.”
Assertion Contradicted
Databricks is growing at three times the rate of Snowflake
“And if you look at it too, right, we're three times their growth rate.”
Assertion Contradicted
Ramaswamy: Databricks Buys Revenue and Has Double Snowflake's Sales Headcount
“It's very clear that they're buying a bunch of business. That they don't have to worry about things like you know free cash flow. They have doubled the number of sales people that we have.”
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Databricks fetches a higher private multiple than public Snowflake
“Databricks can get capital at a higher revenue multiple because they're higher growth rate than Snowflake can and on hassle-free terms.”
Assertion Contradicted
Stebbings: Anthropic made $6B in February, exceeding Databricks' lifetime revenue
“28 day month of February, where they did six billion in revenue, which was more than Databricks has done in their entire lifetime.”
Assertion Supported
Databricks has double Snowflake's headcount but generates less revenue
“Look at Databricks. Their sales team is, they're less revenue than Snowflake. Their sales team is twice the size of Snowflake. Their engineering team is twice the size of the engineering team.”
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Databricks is outpacing Snowflake at $2.5B revenue
“It seemed like Snowflake was going to be the next great platform, but it is Databricks. I know it's not completely fungible product, but it's growing even faster at 2.5 billion, right? It's just mortal. Databricks, I think proves Snowflake was mortal.”
Prediction Held up
Stebbings: Stripe and Databricks Will Not Go Public in 2024
“I don't think Stripe or Databricks will go out in 24.”
Prediction Held up
Stripe and SpaceX Will Not Go Public in 2024
“I don't expect Stripe or SpaceX to go out next year, and Databricks alone won't be enough to crack open the IPO windows.”
Prediction Partly held up
Stebbings: Tech IPO market will not re-open until H2 2025
“But I think it's going to be longer. Like, you know, it, you'll see it in the update coming out this weekend, but it's like, you know, data breaks, stripe, it's not going to be enough to actually crack open the IPO markets like we think it will be, I don't thi…”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Over 90% of Neon Databases Are Built by AI Agents
“At Databricks neon, which is their super base competitor, over 90% of the databases are built by agents, not by humans.”
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Databricks generates $4.5B-$5B at 40%+ growth and is cash-flow positive
“I'm going to pick on, in my view, one of the best companies out there, Databricks. It's doing four and a half, five billion dollars, right? It's valued at, it's got a growth rate of 40% plus. It's cashflow positive.”
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Databricks reached $5B revenue and is accelerating at 55% growth
“But Snowflake's AI revenue is pretty small. It's a Gentix strategy is just starting, and Databricks rode this to, now they're both at five billion, and Databricks is growing and accelerating at 55% growth.”
Assertion Supported
Degnan: Databricks grows faster than Snowflake despite lower total revenue
“They're, they are growing faster. They are behind Snowflake, but they are growing faster than Snowflake.”
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Databricks acquired database startup Neon for billions
“I mean, Neon got bought for, by Databricks for billions,”
Assertion Partly supported
Benioff: Snowflake, Databricks, and Palantir Foundry each generate $3B-$4B revenue
“When you look at other data clouds, Snowflake, Databricks, Palantir Foundry, they're all in the three to four billion dollar revenue.”
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Andreessen Horowitz has invested at least $500M into Databricks
“For that guy, you probably, I'm willing to bet they have the guts of a billion dollars in that deal. Could be wrong. Half a billion at least.”
Assertion Supported
Databricks reached $13M ARR in its first year of enterprise sales
“We did, in our first year, which I think we did 12 or thirteen million ARR, we did two million dollar deals.”
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Databricks recently held an analyst summit and is IPO-ready
“Literally the fact that this last week they had an analyst summit where they went through all their metrics, their revenue, their growth rate through through an entire group of investors and analysts says to me, they will decide one data file and it will just …”
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Databricks acquired Postgres database startup Neon for $1B
“Databricks bought its own Postgres database company Neon for a billion.”
Assertion Partly supported
Bookman: Databricks and Stripe raised massive rounds primarily for employee liquidity
“They're raising, Databricks is raising most of that to deliver secondary to employees, including to deal with some tax issues, and I know that's what Stripe did, and Josh, I think, is doing most of these.”
Assertion Supported
Arora: Snowflake, Glean, and Databricks are reshaping analytics with LLM data lakes
“I think the analytic world is getting reshaped already where you can see people like Snowflake or Glean or Databricks. All these people boast enterprise data lakes where you can bring the data and run LLMs against it and get you much more synthesized analytics…”
Assertion Partly supported
Stebbings: Databricks raised privately at $165B, up from $134B
“Databricks come out today. No, no. We're going to do another round. We're going to do another round. One hundred and sixty five billion price up from one hundred and thirty four billion earlier this year.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lindquist: Snowflake and Databricks comp reps on net revenue to defend workflows
“You look at like a Snowflake or a Databricks, that's their model, and it's because they're competing over workflows in the account.”
Assertion Supported
Swisher: Investors passed on Snowflake and Databricks early rounds over low margins
“Snowflake and Databricks. Very low margin early. A lot of people passed on those early rounds because they're, ah, in SaaS, you have to have 80% gross margin.”
Assertion Contradicted
Databricks generated $3 billion in revenue last year
“We just did three billion last year.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Databricks will fund $200M in partner projects this year
“You know, we'll fund two hundred million in projects to partners this year, but I would spend even more on partners and distribution.”
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Databricks is valued at $100B, surpassing Snowflake's market cap
“Listen, I want to start with Databricks now at a hundred billion dollars worth more than Snowflake.”
Assertion Contradicted
Databricks had hundreds of thousands of free Spark users when Gabrisco joined
“When I joined, we had hundreds of thousands of spark free users.”
Assertion Supported
Databricks generated less than $1M in revenue when Ron Gabrisco joined
“Yeah, well less than a million.”
Assertion Supported
Databricks scaled from zero to $4B ARR under CRO Ron Gabrisco
“Under his leadership, Databricks has scaled from zero to over four billion dollars in ARR. He's grown the sales team from zero to over a thousand globally, leading expansion into the enterprise, government, and international markets.”