The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up
Lemkin: A $100 billion startup exit will happen within a year
“The big exits will solve it, right? The whizzes and the, I mean, we thought whizz was big. Now we have cursor. Now I'm going to win the bet of a hundred billion dollar exit in the next year.”
Jason Lemkin Apr 30, 2026 ▶ 1:05:12 Anthropic Raises $45B but Falls Short on Compute & Thoma Bravo Hand Back Medallia Keys to Creditors · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Cursor doubled revenue from $1B to $2B in three months
“Cursor announces their movement from a billion to two billion in revenue in, in three months. Rumors of secondary round being done at fifty billion.”
Harry Stebbings Mar 5, 2026 ▶ 1:03:10 Anthropic vs The Pentagon: Who Wins? | OpenAI's $110BN Mega Round | Cursor Hits $2BN in ARR · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Cursor just sold for $60 billion after only four years
“Cursor just sold for sixty billion dollars after four years.”
Harry Stebbings Aug 29, 2026 ▶ 54:39 Should American Enterprises Work With Open-Source Chinese Models? | Only 10% of Neo-labs survive
Prediction Held up
Clements: Cursor will build specialized coding models for enterprise users
“Cursor is going to build specialized coding models that are going to serve specialized coding tasks, especially for a lot of enterprise users.”
Miles Clements Mar 9, 2026 ▶ 7:23 "Cursor is Dead" is Total BS: Here is Why | Miles Clements · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Anish Acharya: Early AI market leaders from 2023-2024 have maintained their dominance
“In this product cycle, what's actually interesting is a bunch of the early leaders from 23 and 24 have maintained their lead. You know, we talked about Harvey. That's a really impressive company. You know, Gamma is a really impressive company. You know, Cursor…”
Anish Acharya Feb 9, 2026 ▶ 1:15:26 a16z, Anish Acharya: Is SaaS Dead? Do Margins Still Matter? Why We Are Not in an AI Bubble? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Cursor deal would be the largest private venture acquisition ever
“If this deal closes in three months, This is the biggest ever privately held venture acquisition, period, full stop, end of story.”
Rory O'Driscoll Apr 23, 2026 ▶ 3:39 Cursor Acquired for $60BN | Anthropic Hits $1TRN in Secondary Markets & Figma, Adobe, Canva Dead? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Clements: Cursor cloud agent accounts for 35% of merged PRs
“You know, the cloud agent product, which was new as of like October 30th, so it's only been in market for three months, is now responsible for 35% of merged PRs in cursor.”
Miles Clements Mar 9, 2026 ▶ 5:10 "Cursor is Dead" is Total BS: Here is Why | Miles Clements · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Clements: Cursor's AI agent product usage grew 15x last year
“The agent product grew 15 X last year.”
Miles Clements Mar 9, 2026 ▶ 5:07 "Cursor is Dead" is Total BS: Here is Why | Miles Clements · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Anthropic generates roughly $1B annually from Cursor
“Right now, it's great for Anthropic to get an extra billion or so a year from Cursor.”
Jason Lemkin Jan 15, 2026 ▶ 11:16 Anthropic’s $10B Raise | a16z’s $15B Fund: Is the Middle Dead in VC? | How OpenAI Could Go to Zero? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Cursor Is Raising Funding at Reported $28B Valuation
“I mean, Cursor are raising more money now, and I think it's a reported twenty eight billion dollars. Just going to your point on like the escape velocity that this 0.00001% have being so much more than ever before.”
Harry Stebbings Jul 3, 2025 ▶ 1:09:35 Figma’s IPO: The Full Breakdown & Why Melio’s $2.5BN Acquisition is “Discouraging” · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Hacker: Duolingo PM built initial chess course prototype using Cursor
“He was able to build this first version just using cursor and a bunch of AI tools. And the prototype is what convinced us that we should do this.”
Severin Hacker May 19, 2025 ▶ 41:16 Duolingo Co-Founder, Severin Hacker: How AI Impacts the Future of Work and Education · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Lin Qiao: Almost all AI coding startups now fine-tune custom models
“In coding space, Cursor probably is one of the pioneers starting to tune their model, and now almost all coding companies tune their own models.”
Lin Qiao Jul 20, 2026 ▶ 26:38 The Open-Source AI Reality | How Token Costs Will Fall 10X & Usage Will Explode 100X | Lin Qiao
Assertion Supported
Clements: Cursor has 2x more agent users than tab autocomplete users
“There are two times more people using agents in cursor than using the tab feature.”
Miles Clements Mar 9, 2026 ▶ 4:57 "Cursor is Dead" is Total BS: Here is Why | Miles Clements · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Held up
Jerry Murdock: Cursor will pivot strategy toward autonomous AI agents
“Now, my view is, yeah, well, but that team is really smart. They've got a lot of money and a lot of customers. They've got time to embrace autonomous agents, which is what I think they'll do. And they've got shots to pivot and figure out what the next directio…”
Jerry Murdock Feb 28, 2026 ▶ 4:35 The SaaS Apocalypse: Who Lives & Who Dies | Insight Partners Co-Founder, Jerry Murdock · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Cursor, Bolt, and Windsurf struggled for years before exploding
“I mean, I know Cursor almost died, right? Bolt almost died, right? And then finally it hit for Cursor. I don't know the whole story of Windsurf. Even Windsurf was Codium before it, right? It wasn't even the same, like everyone talks about Windsurf. 90 days ago…”
Jason Lemkin Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 18:53 How LP Deployment to Venture Will Change in 2025 & Are Endowment Funds in Trouble? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Anthropic reaffirmed continued model supply to Cursor
“I also think Anthropic reaffirmed that they're happily continuing to supply”
Rory O'Driscoll Sep 3, 2026 ▶ 12:01 NVIDIA Crushes Quarter | OpenAI Cuts Off Cursor | Instinct Hits $2.5B Valuation
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