why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Held up
Lemkin: A $100 billion startup exit will happen within a year
“The big exits will solve it, right? The whizzes and the, I mean, we thought whizz was big. Now we have cursor. Now I'm going to win the bet of a hundred billion dollar exit in the next year.”
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Cursor doubled revenue from $1B to $2B in three months
“Cursor announces their movement from a billion to two billion in revenue in, in three months. Rumors of secondary round being done at fifty billion.”
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Cursor just sold for $60 billion after only four years
“Cursor just sold for sixty billion dollars after four years.”
Prediction Held up
Clements: Cursor will build specialized coding models for enterprise users
“Cursor is going to build specialized coding models that are going to serve specialized coding tasks, especially for a lot of enterprise users.”
Assertion Supported
Anish Acharya: Early AI market leaders from 2023-2024 have maintained their dominance
“In this product cycle, what's actually interesting is a bunch of the early leaders from 23 and 24 have maintained their lead. You know, we talked about Harvey. That's a really impressive company. You know, Gamma is a really impressive company. You know, Cursor…”
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Cursor deal would be the largest private venture acquisition ever
“If this deal closes in three months, This is the biggest ever privately held venture acquisition, period, full stop, end of story.”
Assertion Supported
Clements: Cursor cloud agent accounts for 35% of merged PRs
“You know, the cloud agent product, which was new as of like October 30th, so it's only been in market for three months, is now responsible for 35% of merged PRs in cursor.”
Assertion Supported
Clements: Cursor's AI agent product usage grew 15x last year
“The agent product grew 15 X last year.”
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Anthropic generates roughly $1B annually from Cursor
“Right now, it's great for Anthropic to get an extra billion or so a year from Cursor.”
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Cursor Is Raising Funding at Reported $28B Valuation
“I mean, Cursor are raising more money now, and I think it's a reported twenty eight billion dollars. Just going to your point on like the escape velocity that this 0.00001% have being so much more than ever before.”
Assertion Supported
Hacker: Duolingo PM built initial chess course prototype using Cursor
“He was able to build this first version just using cursor and a bunch of AI tools. And the prototype is what convinced us that we should do this.”
Assertion Supported
Lin Qiao: Almost all AI coding startups now fine-tune custom models
“In coding space, Cursor probably is one of the pioneers starting to tune their model, and now almost all coding companies tune their own models.”
Assertion Supported
Clements: Cursor has 2x more agent users than tab autocomplete users
“There are two times more people using agents in cursor than using the tab feature.”
Prediction Held up
Jerry Murdock: Cursor will pivot strategy toward autonomous AI agents
“Now, my view is, yeah, well, but that team is really smart. They've got a lot of money and a lot of customers. They've got time to embrace autonomous agents, which is what I think they'll do. And they've got shots to pivot and figure out what the next directio…”
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Cursor, Bolt, and Windsurf struggled for years before exploding
“I mean, I know Cursor almost died, right? Bolt almost died, right? And then finally it hit for Cursor. I don't know the whole story of Windsurf. Even Windsurf was Codium before it, right? It wasn't even the same, like everyone talks about Windsurf. 90 days ago…”
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Anthropic reaffirmed continued model supply to Cursor
“I also think Anthropic reaffirmed that they're happily continuing to supply”