why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Held up
Lemkin: CrowdStrike market cap will rebound to $83B by Christmas 2024
“I'm going to guess it bridges 50% of the gap. So was it a hundred? Today it's at 66. So I'm going to guess it makes back 17%, half of that. So what does that bring us up to 80? 83? I'll go 83.”
Prediction Partly held up
Lemkin: CrowdStrike product upsells will be put on hold for three quarters
“So I think almost upsells are going to have to go on hold for like, you know, three quarters.”
Assertion Supported
Randle: Top public SaaS platforms trade above 15x NTM revenue
“You have, I mean, Palo Alto, CrowdStrike, Cloudflare, Datadog, Palantir, all these companies trade above 15 times NTM revenue again.”
Prediction Held up
O'Driscoll: Major cybersecurity incumbents will aggressively acquire agentic AI security startups
“So I think there'll be a ton of fast acquisitions as agent security solutions emerge, you know, and people will be doing, if they're smart, and I think those two companies are extraordinarily smart, they'll be doing acquisitions long before it's quote certain …”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Stebbings: CrowdStrike market cap will only reach $75B by Christmas 2024
“So I would go I'm gonna go for 75. I don't think it'll take such a rebound. I don't think it's gonna take such a rebound, but I think legals and fines are gonna be real, and I think it's gonna be an interesting enough story. It's touched enough consumer lives …”
Prediction Held up
Kurtz predicts CrowdStrike will mirror Salesforce's platform and revenue trajectory
“I think the next five years probably look a lot like, you know, Salesforce trajectory where you continue to build out your platform, you continue to scale your revenue, your annual recurring revenue, additional geographic expansion.”
Assertion Contradicted
CrowdStrike was the third fastest-growing enterprise software company to IPO
“I think we were the third fastest growth company to ever IPO behind like Zoom and Salesforce.”
Assertion Partly supported
Clements: Accel invested in CrowdStrike at $160M valuation with $1M ARR
“The example I would point to is, you know, CrowdStrike. Samir Gandhi and John Locke intersected CrowdStrike when it was, you know, there was like a million dollars of software revenue and there was a nine million dollar consulting business, and like, that was …”
Assertion Supported
Kurtz: CrowdStrike was the largest security company at IPO
“When we IPO'd, we were the largest security company at the time when we IPO'd.”
Prediction Held up
Kurtz: CrowdStrike committed to never selling perpetual licenses
“When I recruited my CFO, I said, hey, we'll never have a perpetual license, and he gave me a hug.”
Assertion Partly supported
Kurtz: CrowdStrike was unique in offering in-app platform trials
“Part of the secret sauce with CrowdStrike and selling is that the platform helps sell itself, and we've got in-app trials, nobody has that.”
Assertion Supported
Gandhi: Accel invested in CrowdStrike at a $150M post-money valuation
“So I never looked at it as a three to five X. I looked at it as we're investing in a company, you know, in the first round when we did it was a 150 posts or something like that.”
Assertion Supported
Rory O'Driscoll: CrowdStrike traded at 16x revenue post-drop with 31% cash margins
“It's 22% revenue growth projected, 31% cash margins, and it was trading at 16 X revenues on Friday after the first hit.”
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: CrowdStrike is growing 33% at nearly $4B revenue
“Amazing, growing 33% at almost four billion in revenue.”
Assertion Supported
CrowdStrike flew all global new hires to California pre-COVID
“Up until COVID, you know, we would actually, no matter where the person was hired, they could be in Australia, we would send them to California for one week of training.”
Assertion Supported
Kurtz met 100 global customers in 100 days post-CrowdStrike IPO
“On Monday, we're going to start the 100 by 100. We're taking one day off and we're doing the 100 by 100. He said, well, what is that? And I said, we're going to meet a hundred customers in a hundred days, wherever they are. I flew all over the world to meet a …”
Assertion Supported
Snowflake, UiPath, and CrowdStrike exceeded $500M revenue during hyper-growth
“When you look at companies like, you know, Snowflake, UiPath, CrowdStrike, these companies that are north of five hundred million in revenue growing still at incredibly hyper growth rates.”