why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Sep 2026
Weitzman: Speechify holds 98% of B2C text-to-speech App Store installs
“The first one is if you go to the App Store and you search text-to-speech, Speechify has 98% of the installs in text-to-speech for B to C.”
Assertion Supported
Masad: Replit has been stuck in Apple App Store review for months
“Replit has been on the App Store since twenty-twenty-two doing exactly the same thing, allowing people to generate or write code. And running it in a browser window. Suddenly they're saying that we are you know, we're not complying with their guidelines. And w…”
Assertion Supported
Clements: Anthropic's app surpassed OpenAI's ChatGPT in the App Store
“Yeah, I mean, they passed GPT in the app store.”
Opinion
Stebbings: 2008 startup success came from platform shifts, not macro downturn
“For me, I strongly push back on that because I think they're conflating the macro economy with the technology advancements of GPS, of the rise of the app store and of the iPhone with the macro environment that was also simultaneously happening at the same time…”
Assertion Supported
Taussig: The average consumer downloads net zero new apps per month
“The average consumer downloads net zero apps each month.”
Insight
Neil Young: Paid user acquisition is mandatory for crowded app marketplaces
“My sense is that today, paid is the number one thing that you need to think about, especially if you're operating in a very dense or crowded marketplace like the app stores.”
Opinion
Wise: App store distribution makes European market fragmentation irrelevant
“So it doesn't matter about market entry into Germany versus the US. They launch on the App Store. They launch on the Play Store. They're global instantly.”
Insight
Kanji: Global app platforms allow European startups to scale without geographic limits
“But once these distribution platforms became global, you know, the playing field completely changed, right? You put your app on top of the app store. It doesn't make a difference where you come from. You're going to get users all over the world. And Angry Bird…”
Opinion
Ibrahim: Mobile gaming is a consolidated winner-takes-all market of 10-12 players
“If I were to do it today, it would be very hard for me to make an investment in the mobile gaming space for a variety of reasons. The biggest reason is that it is a winners, and I say that plural, take all market. The market has consolidated into, let's say, 1…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Masad: Apple accepts applications created using Replit at a very high rate
“They're accepting apps made on replet. They're accepting them into the app store. I tweeted about one yesterday. There's the acceptance rate. It's very high.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: iPhone and App Store drive 75% of Apple revenue
“25% of the revenue is from the App Store, 40% of its profit, right? And 75% of its revenue is iPhone and App Store.”
Disclosure
Gurski: Flo Health did not use paid user acquisition until 2020
“Up to the very recent times we didn't spend money for paid user acquisition. It was organic growth, and it was organic growth because users liked our products, and the metrics of our product were so good that App Store and Google Play were promoting it. But we…”
Insight
Rouif: App store global distribution enables lean teams without sales staff
“I think there is the App Store story, which is a big part of it. Like, so Apple and Google, like, the App Store and mobile, they're giving you distribution. Yes, they take, like, a cut of it, but Basically, it means they offer, like, a worldwide distribution t…”
Assertion Contradicted
Reber: Wunderlist became the most downloaded app worldwide on the App Store
“Super popular there. Most downloaded app worldwide for quite some time.”
Assertion Supported
Norgard: Tinder Gold launch became highest-grossing app in App Store
“Probably the largest inflection point for myself was the launch of Tinder Gold. And Tinder Gold today has been this enormous success since number one, the highest grossing app in the app store, and all of these amazing things that we're not worthy of, that are…”
Disclosure
Kevin Rose's free fasting app reached #1 and logged 700k fasts
“Yeah. So, you know, it was just a simple little free app and we were able to quickly kind of shoot up in the rankings inside of the app store for the word fasting. So now if you go into the app store and Apple and type in fasting, we're kind of the number one …”
Assertion Supported
Tinder became the world's top-grossing app under Jeff Morris Jr.
“When asked to lead the revenue team, they were ranked number 17 in the App Store. Within a year, under Jeff's leadership, Tinder became the number one top-grossing app in the world.”