why aren't all 20 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Steckman: Anduril builds cruise missile airframes like bathtubs using contract manufacturers
“The cruise missile we build, the actual airframe is built like you build a bathtub. And so we can take advantage of tons of contract manufacturers in the United States that can actually build a bathtub, right?”
Prediction Held up
Singerman predicts Founders Fund's $200M Anduril check will turn into $2B
“Enduro is going to be an extremely valuable company. I am, there's, yes, quite sure of that. We are not going to lose that two hundred million dollar check. That two hundred million dollars will turn into, you know, two billion.”
Assertion Supported
Steckman: Anduril's $20B government contract contains no upfront obligated funds
“Think about this as like a credit card limit. So the government has said up to twenty billion dollars they can spend on a class of Andurl's commercial technology. There's no obligated money”
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: $20B contract solidifies Anduril as a primary defense supplier
“They're basically saying, look, We've gone from trying you out in a lot of different areas to saying, okay, dammit, you're the dominant provider of this layer, so why don't we just systematize the contract? It kind of picks them as, it picks them as the clear …”
Assertion Contradicted
O'Driscoll: Anduril has only four or five customers total
“As a reminder, they have four or five, they only have four or five customers”
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Founders Fund deployed $3B in under 12 months into mega-rounds
“Founders Fund, deploying three billion in under 12 months, but deploying it into Stripe, SpaceX, and Anduril.”
Assertion Supported
Taneja: General Catalyst's best returns come from seeding and creating companies
“I mean, look, our best returns have come from seeding companies like Stripe and Andurl or Creating companies like Kayak and Livongo and Camille and others, and so.”
Assertion Supported
Anduril won major government defense contracts within two years
“I think it took Andrel two years. The speed at which these guys were able to break in to these large government contracts was astounding.”
Assertion Contradicted
No other Silicon Valley company was innovating in defense before Anduril
“At the time when we did this, there was no other company in Silicon Valley innovating in defense.”
Assertion Supported
Boyle: In 2017, No Silicon Valley Startup Competed With Defense Incumbents
“There are very few companies, and particularly in 2017, when Andrew was founded, there wasn't anyone in Silicon Valley building a new defense contractor that wanted to compete with Raytheon and Lockheed Martin.”
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Founders Fund closing $6B in new capital after deploying $3.3B in 11 months
“Founders Fund are closing in on six billion dollars of new funds. They invested the last 3.3 in 11 months in amazing businesses like SpaceX and Stripe and Anduril.”
Assertion Supported
General Catalyst claims unique portfolio of US, European, and Indian defense primes
“I think we're the only firm that's invested in a defense prime in US, Europe, and India. We did Andrel, we did, you know, invested in Helsing, and we invested in a company called Rafi in India.”
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Founders Fund wrote record $1B check for Anduril's Series G
“Specifically with regards to Amgrills raising two and a half billion Series G, I don't know if you guys knew this, they got a billion from Founders Fund in this latest round. A billion again, making it their largest ever check, and the Founders Fund's prior la…”
Assertion Supported
Grimm: Anduril has raised $4B in equity and $5B total including debt
“Short of debt, it would be about four billion. With debt, it'd be about five billion.”
Assertion Supported
Defense procurement takes 15 to 20 years from requirements to full deployment
“So it can be upwards of 15, 20 years to go from first requirements document to full fielding of a system.”
Assertion Supported
Stephens: US Government, Not Defense Startups, Decides Foreign Military Buyers
“This is probably like, not to put a, you know, a target on your back, Harry, but this is the most naive question that non-defense people ask, because the reality is that we don't decide. The US government decides.”
Assertion Supported
Anduril exclusively sells to the US and its allies
“Yeah, I mean, we only sell to the US and our allies. We don't do anything where it would not be good with the US government to work with. We would not work with any countries that are not, you know, total allies in the United States.”
Assertion Supported
Luckey: Anduril sells defense software continuously as a service, not annual licenses
“We don't sell somebody a software system and then sell them the new version a year later. Instead, we're basically continuously selling it to them usually as a service.”
Prediction Held up
Luckey: Anduril will avoid hiring 1,000 people in a single year
“I don't want to hire a thousand people in a year because I know that it's almost impossible for any organism to survive that.”
Assertion Supported
Steckman: Anduril's leadership team remains unchanged since founding
“There's kind of some magic in the fact that it's the same leadership team today as it was when we started the company.”