why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Harry Stebbings Argues Stripe Is Not a Good Business Due to Competition
“I don't think Stripe is a good business because you compete against ad yen and checkout and your biggest customers will compete.”
Disclosure
Siemiatkowski: Adyen winning Spotify forced Klarna to pivot from checkout wars
“We have been trying to compete with Stripe and Adyen for five years, and we were like losing it. Like they were just, you know, crushing us. And we were like, this is it. And Adyen had just signed with Daniel X, Spotify, my neighbor. And I was like, this is ov…”
Assertion Supported
Singlehurst: Stripe trades at a lower multiple than Adyen while growing faster
“Stripe is priced even, even less than Adyen. If you just look at it on a multiples basis, and it's growing quicker.”
Opinion
Stebbings: Stripe's private status gives it an advantage over public rival Adyen
“If you look at Stripe and Adyen, I think Stripe have an inherent advantage in being private that Adyen don't have because they're public in what they can do, how aggressive they can be, how they approach product, you name it.”
Disclosure
Ribbit Capital passed on early investments in Stripe, Adyen, and Stone
“Early on at Ribbit, we had the opportunity to invest in, in Stone, in Adyen, in Stripe, you know, in a number of companies that are relatively early stage. And we said, we're not doing payments right now.”
Opinion
Lemkin: Stripe is a better bet than Adyen due to private flexibility
“So I'm going to bet on Stripe on this one, just because I think you have more flexibility today to respond to change.”
Disclosure
Senkut: Shopify and Canva grew 10 to 20 times larger than expected
“But what I have seen with all the great companies we had, whether it be like Shopify or Canva or Adyen, it ended up being like 20 to 10 to 20 times bigger than what we expected.”
Assertion Supported
Most payment processing revenue still sits with legacy incumbents
“If you take the three leaders today, which are ID and Stripe and Checkout, we're literally scratching the surface of what's possible. This is mathematical. All the revenue is still sitting in the incumbents”
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Stripe generates $5B in revenue compared to Adyen's $2B
“Stripe's doing five billion plus or minus, Addians doing A two billion, right? So it's half the size. So two and a half times the size.”
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Adyen operates at nearly 50% operating margins
“Addion's a wildly profitable company. It's like almost 50% operating margins.”
Disclosure
Senkut: Adyen was my largest personal venture exit
“My personal biggest exit was Adyen.”
Assertion Partly supported
Felicis Ventures backs an average of two unicorns per year
“Backing, and I cannot believe I'm saying this, Dad, but an incredible two unicorns per year since founding, including Shopify, Opendoor, Flexport, Adyen, Twitch, Fitbit, and many more incredible companies.”