Orlando Bravo, founder of software private equity firm Thoma Bravo, assesses public software market valuation metrics relative to the broader market in early 2023.
“If you look at the public market as a benchmark for the world, and you take an index of the profitable software companies, those companies that have margins in excess of 20%, and you put them all together, on average, They trade for around a 25 forward PE, which the industry uses as a levered free cash flow. That compares to the S&P 500 at 16 and a half forward PE.”
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More from Orlando Bravo
Insight
Bravo: Every company is worth only its future cash flows
“Look, we believe every company in the world, Is worth its future cash flows. We just come from that world. We don't believe in multiples of revenue. We don't believe in, ah, a technology may be worth a trillion dollars or a billion dollars because it might do …”
Orlando BravoFeb 6, 2023▶ 3:36Orlando Bravo: Raising Kids as a Billionaire; VC vs PE; Is Warren Buffet Wrong? | 20VC #974 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Bravo: Supporting 40 to 50 portfolio companies operationally is impossible
“If you have an investor, private equity or venture firm, that claims that they make a big difference in their companies, that they're there with those companies operationally, that they change them in a positive way. And you have 40 or 50, there is no way you …”
Orlando BravoFeb 6, 2023▶ 36:39Orlando Bravo: Raising Kids as a Billionaire; VC vs PE; Is Warren Buffet Wrong? | 20VC #974 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
PredictionHeld up
Bravo: Lower tech market valuations represent the new normal for years
“So if I, if you really push me, I would say, yes, this is the new normal, because I don't see investors jumping in in mass To do the same thing that in the last 18 months lost them 80% of their money. At least not in the next few years.”
Orlando BravoFeb 6, 2023▶ 16:51Orlando Bravo: Raising Kids as a Billionaire; VC vs PE; Is Warren Buffet Wrong? | 20VC #974 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Bravo: PE firms cannot triage underperforming portfolio investments like VCs
“There's no such thing in buyouts and private equity as triaging your portfolio and deciding what you throw away and when you keep going, which in another way to put it is, is actually a big motivator to management teams to partner with you because you have no …”
Orlando BravoFeb 6, 2023▶ 28:49Orlando Bravo: Raising Kids as a Billionaire; VC vs PE; Is Warren Buffet Wrong? | 20VC #974 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Bravo: Thoma Bravo avoids IPOs because cash-generative companies avoid dilution
“I mean, in our history, we have mainly exited to strategics and other financial buyers. And there's a reason for that is the IPO for our companies doesn't give us that much in itself because our companies generate the cashflow that is needed to fund their inve…”
Orlando BravoFeb 6, 2023▶ 31:43Orlando Bravo: Raising Kids as a Billionaire; VC vs PE; Is Warren Buffet Wrong? | 20VC #974 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
AssertionSupported
Bravo: Increased fund size directly correlates with reduced investment performance
“The LP community is really, really smart. And there is a direct correlation between that, that we cannot argue with. And it is there.”
Orlando BravoFeb 6, 2023▶ 34:56Orlando Bravo: Raising Kids as a Billionaire; VC vs PE; Is Warren Buffet Wrong? | 20VC #974 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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