Prediction Not checkable as stated
Smith: Lime could become the world's largest transportation company
“I believe they have a shot at being the largest transportation company in the world.”
Insight
Smith: Startups should raise capital to pay higher salaries instead of equity
“Why wouldn't we instead go raise some additional capital from people who adequately value it or value it at least at a higher rate and instead convert that money that we get from investors into higher salaries to make us more competitive? And so I'm surprised …”
Insight
Smith: VC firms worried about lowering diversity bars never set evaluation standards
“Oftentimes when people talk about diversity, this whole notion of quote, lowering the bar, not lowering the bar comes up. But when you actually sit down and look at it, most groups that are, have not been very diverse or even set a bar in the first place.”
Insight
Smith: Female partners shouldn't avoid joining VC firms that lack diversity
“I hear people tell women not to join a firm as the first female partner for fear that they will be, quote unquote, the token partner. I think that's I don't know how we're gonna change things if we shun the 74% of U.S. Firms who don't yet have a female partner…”
Prediction Partly held up
Smith: Bain expects Lime to generate a 15x to 20x return
“My bet was really believing that Lime is the ability to get us positive economics and more than 15 to 20 X from here.”
Insight
Smith: Startup employees treat equity as a lottery ticket with zero value
“If you think about how most engineers, or really a lot of individual employees in their risk profile, how they think about equity, if you talk to many of them, even the most savvy people often really think of equity as a lottery ticket. And if you think of it …”
Insight
Smith: LP capital commitment rules restrict diversity among new fund managers
“LPs do look to new fund managers to commit a certain percent of their own capital to the fund. So if someone's trying to raise a fifty million dollar fund, for example, that could mean that there's this expectation of a one to two million dollar GP commitment,…”
Insight
Smith: VC firms should create $250K–$1M investment farm teams for female executives
“So you could actually put some star women, baby execs in your portfolio and business, Potentially set aside 250 K to a million for them to invest on your behalf to get them some reps.”
Prediction Partly held up
Smith: Cities will regulate micromobility using dynamic capping based on utilization
“In the end, most cities are going to regulate the market with this dynamic capping system.”
Insight
Smith: Proximity, not brand loyalty, drives consumer choice in shared micromobility
“The bigger driver is really going to be proximity and location. So when you step out and you're trying to get from point A to B, you're going to really just care about which one is the closest to you.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Smith: Lime is the first company since Facebook to show such hyper-growth
“Lime is the first company I have seen since my time at Facebook showing that kind of sort of tornado of growth and insane momentum.”
Opinion
Smith: Software engineers are underpaid because salaries haven't adjusted to demand
“Everyone knows this is a super tight market, and in that type of world, you have to think there's gotta be some more regulatory mechanism here to balance things out. And really just, I think means that price has not risen enough to drive enough of the supply. …”
Opinion
Smith: Four-year equity vesting schedules are an outdated legacy model
“Four year vesting schedule is really outdated and sort of a legacy from somewhat like 20 years ago when companies typically went public more in like four to five years.”
Insight
Smith: Tech workers rationally switch startups frequently to diversify equity portfolios
“It's not irrational that some individuals decide to take, you know, one to two, maybe three years of equity at a few different companies to sort of build their own equity portfolio over time.”
Assertion Supported
Smith: 74% of US venture capital firms lack a female General Partner
“In fact, 74% of firms in the United States do not yet have a female GP.”
Insight
Smith: VC firms must maintain identical deal standards for new female partners
“After mentorship, I'd recommend that you maintain your investment criteria. I think this is really hard sometimes when you bring in a newer member, certainly from an underrepresented group, there could be temptation to let the first few deals through or, you k…”
Insight
Smith: VC firms must protect new female partners from the diversity tax
“I'd also recommend you not give her the diversity tax. So it's really common. I think good intentions. People say, great. We have our first people partner. Will you now mentor all the women in our firm? If you think about that, you know, that's really putting …”
Insight
Smith: Startups growing 1-2% weekly should avoid rigid processes and structures
“When a company is growing as fast as Facebook was or as Quora was, it's really important, I think, not to get tied too much to any team or process. Things are changing constantly when your company is growing one to two percent every single week. You shouldn't …”
Insight
Smith: Send HQ veterans for 12 months to align new remote offices
“In opening remote offices, so at Facebook, I really helped open the Dublin, Austin, and Hyderabad offices, and sending a group of people from headquarters to For at least 12 months, to also include a office leader where people report remotely, I found really t…”
Insight
Smith: Data and market experience drive micromobility utilization more than capital
“The company who has the most experience in the most markets are also going to have the most data to use in optimizing and driving the highest utilization.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Smith: Optimized fleet disbursement will determine the winner in micromobility
“Our view is that really, again, this comes back to the fleet that is best to Optimized in terms of its disbursement of the vehicles throughout the city. We believe that that is the player that's going to win the most revenue and the most trips”
Assertion Supported
Smith: Average tech employee tenure in San Francisco is 18 months
“The average tenure of an employee in a competitive market like San Francisco is about a year and a half.”
Insight
Smith: Sudden equity vesting drops drive attrition; use annual refreshers instead
“What you want to avoid is these rapid step function changes or decreases in someone's equity vesting, because that does actually drive attrition. So if you have maybe a two-year or three-year upfront grant, and then you offer annual refreshers, you're in much …”
Insight
Smith: Aspiring angel investors should budget $100K for $25K early-stage checks
“They can get started just by writing 25 K checks into early stage companies, maybe budget a hundred K sort of quote unquote tuition, sort of learning the world of investing and going through the motion.”
