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Eric Paley

Secretary, Massachusetts Executive Office of Economic Development · 3 appearances on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

investorfounderexecutive@epaley ↗epaley.com ↗Wikipedia ↗

Eric Paley is the Secretary of the Massachusetts Executive Office of Economic Development and a co-founder of Founder Collective. He previously co-founded Brontes Technologies and led early-stage venture investments in companies such as Uber, The Trade Desk, and Airtable.

58statements → 18claims → 6claims resolved → 67%fully supported → 3.74/5average certainty → 2.71/5average debate potential → 4.4/5argument clarity · the sources → 102said about them ↓

4 supported 2 partly supported 0 contradicted 1 not yet assessed 11 not checkable as stated how the 18 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

6 predictions · 12 assertions · 9 opinions · 22 insights · 8 disclosures · 1 what if · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 18 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 6 are resolved, 1 is not yet assessed, and 11 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Eric argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported
Paley: Most VCs Earn Money From Management Fees, Not Carry
“It's why most VCs get paid on management fees. They don't get paid on, on, on carried interest, because TVPI, TVPI in that case, doesn't actually translate to DPI.”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 10:08 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1
none yet certainty 2
none yet certainty 3
90% certainty 4
50% certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

Argument clarity: do they answer the question? how? →

4.4 / 5 directness 4.8 · coherence 4.7 · precision 4.2 · compression 3.8

answered every one of 32 assessed questions directly

This is a score against a rubric. It is not a rank. Every host question → answer exchange is scored with names hidden on directness, coherence, precision and compression, 1–5 each, on meaning alone: disfluencies are ignored, and only raw unedited episodes count. This is the score that measures thought. Every scored exchange, scores shown → · The rubric and its checks →

How they sound: speaking style how? →

246 words/min while actually speaking · 25.1 um and uh per 1k words · 11.9 false starts per 1k · 29.6% of pauses land inside a clause

Measured by listening to the audio itself: 8,617 words across 2 episodes of raw-level tape, transcribed verbatim with every um and uh kept, each one attributed only where the alignment onto our timed stream is unambiguous. These are measurements of speaking style. We do not rank them: across this corpus, fluency and argument quality are nearly uncorrelated (ρ≈0.2), and smooth talking does not signal clear thinking. How it's measured →

How the interview went all their pushback → series average →

Across 1 rated episode:

host pushback ▾ 2/10
pushed back at the host ▾ 2/10
setup questions received 25%

Everything Eric Paley said on 20VC that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Insight
Paley says startup exits smaller than total fund size are immaterial
“You have to put that alongside the fact that venture funds have been growing, and the rule of thumb we use there is we say any exit that isn't at least equivalent to the size of the fund is not really material to a fund.”
Eric Paley Nov 23, 2016 ▶ 13:50 20VC: Venture Capital Is One Hell Of A Drug, What VCs Expect From Founders Once They Have Raised & Why Customers Validate Your Business Not Venture Capital with Eric Paley, Managing Partner @ Founder Collective
What-if
Following on in every Uber round wouldn't double Founder Collective's returns
“If we had invested in every single round we still wouldn't, I don't think, come close to doubling what our current value is.”
Eric Paley Nov 18, 2015 ▶ 18:05 20 VC 089: Eric Paley @ Founder Collective on Outliers, Inspirational Founders and Pro Rata
Insight
Breakout portfolio companies rarely need VC help, says Eric Paley
“Struggling through how hard it is to build companies in 90% of our portfolio. And then there's the 10% that just does amazingly well, and it's really fun to help those companies, and we do get involved, and we do contribute to those, too, but they don't really…”
Eric Paley Nov 18, 2015 ▶ 21:10 20 VC 089: Eric Paley @ Founder Collective on Outliers, Inspirational Founders and Pro Rata
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Paley: The most valuable company founded in 2023 could be direct-to-consumer
“The most valuable company born in 2023 could very well be in direct to consumer Commerce, because that's not where anyone wants to play right now.”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 7:10 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Paley: Trade Desk Founder Limited Fundraising to Preserve Acquisition Optionality
“And I'll tell you another story, you know, with Trade Desk, one of the reasons we didn't raise a lot of money was, we were the last ones in, and people just thought it was played already in the programmatic advertising market. But one of the reasons we didn't …”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 30:11 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Paley: Many unicorn startups will lose their unicorn valuations
“So I think this, some of this stuff is starting to shift a little bit, largely because so many of these unicorns are going to be, you know, un, unhorned, or whatever the right term is, unwinged, unhorned.”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 45:30 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Paley: VCs who block founders from selling their companies are nuts
“It's like when a founder wants to sell their company, you say, yes, you should probably sell your company. VCs standing in the way are, I think are nuts.”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 52:34 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Paley: Big VC firms are disengaged and barely care about portfolio companies
“I think the truth of the big firms is they barely care. ... I think it is completely, in most cases, quite disengaged capital.”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 54:44 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Paley: The SPAC craze was largely a waste of energy for unready companies
“I think the SPAC craze was just a waste of everyone's energy and a bad idea, and I'm not saying there weren't any good SPACs, but generally speaking, it was a path, generally, there were exceptions, but it was a path for companies that were not ready to be pub…”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 1:04:10 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Paley: Truly strong companies can go public in almost any market environment
“I think if you're a strong company, you can go public in almost any period of time, as long as the market volatility is not insane, like the great financial crisis. If you are strong, if you're really ready, you probably can go out in almost any environment, r…”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 1:04:43 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Paley: Inflated IPO valuations cause long-term destruction to company culture
“I actually think the IPO inflation of those periods really has long-term detrimental effects. It's very hard to work for a company that went public at ten billion, that today is worth one and a half billion very hard that's right very hard destroying for the w…”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 1:08:33 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Paley: Founder Collective's 2010 investment SeatGeek will deliver an amazing liquidity event
“Like, SeatGeek was a 2010 investment. I think it's a great company. Dave led that for us. I think it's gonna ultimately have an amazing liquidity event”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 1:17:56 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Customers validate startups, not venture capital, says Eric Paley
“Ultimately, your customers validate your business. Venture capital doesn't.”
Eric Paley Nov 23, 2016 ▶ 5:04 20VC: Venture Capital Is One Hell Of A Drug, What VCs Expect From Founders Once They Have Raised & Why Customers Validate Your Business Not Venture Capital with Eric Paley, Managing Partner @ Founder Collective
Insight
Eric Paley says capital efficiency gives founders more control and lowers risk
“So, so at Founder Collective, we've been actively talking about what we call efficient entrepreneurship, the efficient use of capital, which ultimately leads to much more founder ownership, much more founder control, and actually, believe it or not, much less …”
Eric Paley Nov 23, 2016 ▶ 6:39 20VC: Venture Capital Is One Hell Of A Drug, What VCs Expect From Founders Once They Have Raised & Why Customers Validate Your Business Not Venture Capital with Eric Paley, Managing Partner @ Founder Collective
Insight
Paley says early-stage startups must triple their valuation every two years
“I think at the early stage, rough rule of thumb, there's no perfect definition here. You should at least be tripling every two years. Some people would argue you should be doubling every year, which would mean Forex in two years. But just to sort of put a more…”
Eric Paley Nov 23, 2016 ▶ 12:11 20VC: Venture Capital Is One Hell Of A Drug, What VCs Expect From Founders Once They Have Raised & Why Customers Validate Your Business Not Venture Capital with Eric Paley, Managing Partner @ Founder Collective
Insight
Founders drive inflated valuation expectations just as much as VCs, says Paley
“Actually, the expectations come as a result of a tough negotiation where, Not just VCs, but founders typically want more capital and higher price. And so it's on both sides, the intention of the VC to get more capital in and incentives to do so, and the desire…”
Eric Paley Nov 23, 2016 ▶ 12:39 20VC: Venture Capital Is One Hell Of A Drug, What VCs Expect From Founders Once They Have Raised & Why Customers Validate Your Business Not Venture Capital with Eric Paley, Managing Partner @ Founder Collective
Insight
Paley says the 'go big or go home' mentality is not required
“I've never believed that go big or go home is a requirement to building a big company.”
Eric Paley Nov 23, 2016 ▶ 15:42 20VC: Venture Capital Is One Hell Of A Drug, What VCs Expect From Founders Once They Have Raised & Why Customers Validate Your Business Not Venture Capital with Eric Paley, Managing Partner @ Founder Collective
Opinion
Paley argues stage-specific VC funds are healthier than multi-stage funds
“I would love to see more funds focus on specific stage instead of being life cycle funds. I actually think that would be extremely healthy for the ecosystem broadly.”
Eric Paley Nov 23, 2016 ▶ 18:30 20VC: Venture Capital Is One Hell Of A Drug, What VCs Expect From Founders Once They Have Raised & Why Customers Validate Your Business Not Venture Capital with Eric Paley, Managing Partner @ Founder Collective
Opinion
Eric Paley says tech founders and investors are currently overconfident
“I think in really good times, you feel extremely, you know, probably People feel a little overconfident. Right now, it's probably one of those times”
Eric Paley Nov 18, 2015 ▶ 2:24 20 VC 089: Eric Paley @ Founder Collective on Outliers, Inspirational Founders and Pro Rata
Assertion Not checkable as stated
David Frankel and Eric Paley's angel portfolio quadrupled top-quartile VC returns
“We saw that that body of that portfolio, that body of work was performing way better. I mean, four times as well as these top quartile PCs”
Eric Paley Nov 18, 2015 ▶ 9:04 20 VC 089: Eric Paley @ Founder Collective on Outliers, Inspirational Founders and Pro Rata
Assertion Supported
Eric Paley says most peer seed funds allocate capital like Series B
“A lot of seed funds today, a lot of our peer group, a lot of whom I respect very much they really look like series B funds in terms of where their average dollar goes in. They may be starting very early, but their average dollar is weighted towards series B.”
Eric Paley Nov 18, 2015 ▶ 12:25 20 VC 089: Eric Paley @ Founder Collective on Outliers, Inspirational Founders and Pro Rata
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Eric Paley claims Founder Collective is among the top funds globally
“I think our fund is performing you know, people like to say top quartile, top decibel I think we're, I mean, I think our fund's truly one of the very, you know, Count on your hands the number of funds performing as well right now. So I don't know if we're goin…”
Eric Paley Nov 18, 2015 ▶ 16:20 20 VC 089: Eric Paley @ Founder Collective on Outliers, Inspirational Founders and Pro Rata
Insight
Paley: Startup Execs Should Compare Real Financials Against Valuation Hype
“If you're coming into a company as a senior executive and you have a CEO is bragging to you about how big their last round was in dollars and how big the post money was, ask to see the financials and compare those financials to what they're claiming in the van…”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 0:00 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Paley: Almost all top Founder Collective companies had previously unsuccessful founders
“Almost every one of our best companies, almost every single one, the founder founded something before that wasn't a success or a big success.”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 56:16 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Show 10statements(10 left)

The other half of the tape: Eric Paley's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 97 times in 18 episodes on 20VC. 5 statements on the record name them. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most David Frankel 58Harry Stebbings 29Micah Rosenbloom 4Chris Dixon 4Roger Ehrenberg 1Beezer Clarkson 1

Statements about Eric Paley, by other people (5)

Prediction Held up
Clarkson: Absolute TVPI-to-DPI gap is likely largest since dot-com crash
“The only other time that would be equivalent would be about 99 and 2000, and I don't know if there is the volume of funds in the market then, so, and absolute numbers, he's probably right.”
Beezer Clarkson Oct 18, 2023 ▶ 33:00 Beezer Clarkson: Are LPs Open for Business & Why Do LP Incentive Mechanisms Need to Change? | E1073 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Frankel: Founder Collective funded The Trade Desk when nobody else would
“Eric invests in Trade Desk as a follow on because nobody else was going to give them money.”
David Frankel Oct 14, 2024 ▶ 10:45 David Frankel, MP @Founder Collective: Investing Lessons from Seeding Coupang, Pillpack & Suno|E1214 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Maples: Seed venture capital is about micro 'bird spotting' for novel startups
“Yeah, for me, the job is sort of like, you know, when you're in the Galapagos Islands and you spot some, Finch with a weird looking beak that nobody's ever seen before. Like, I think that's kind of what Eric and I try to do, right? We're trying to, but like, i…”
Mike Maples Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 1:16:39 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Frankel: Nobody could have predicted Uber's market size at seed stage
“Uber, which Eric participated in at the get-go, looked like a better way of calling limos. No one in their mind could have known how big that was going to be.”
David Frankel Sep 17, 2018 ▶ 14:01 20VC: Lessons Learned Scaling PillPack from Seed to Amazon Acquisition, Why Investors Should Spend More Time Assessing Human Capital Risk Taken by Founders & The Right Way To Think About Capital Efficiency in Scaling with David Frankel, Managing Partner @
Insight
Investing and founder support are the only top priorities in VC
“In venture, investing in helping companies is the only A activity. Everything else is a B activity.”
Micah Rosenbloom Feb 15, 2017 ▶ 21:15 20VC: Why Founders Should Not Focus On Top Line Valuation, Why Capital Efficiency Is Key To Returns And Investment Success & Why Despite Popular Thought, $100m Is An Exciting Exit For VC with Micah Rosenbloom, Managing Partner @ Founder Collective

Every mention by year

tap a year for its mentions
00132254201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions
024201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodes it came up in
0052104201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 5 mentions in 1 episode
2024 23 mentions in 3 episodes 8 per episode
2023 3 mentions in 1 episode
2022 19 mentions in 2 episodes 10 per episode
2020 1 mention in 1 episode
2018 15 mentions in 4 episodes 4 per episode
2017 14 mentions in 2 episodes 7 per episode
2016 2 mentions in 2 episodes 1 per episode
2015 15 mentions in 2 episodes 8 per episode

Appearances (3)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E Sep 20, 2023 39m
20VC: Venture Capital Is One Hell Of A Drug, What VCs Expect From Founders Once They Have Nov 23, 2016 15m
20 VC 089: Eric Paley @ Founder Collective on Outliers, Inspirational Founders and Pro Rat Nov 18, 2015 25m
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