Assertion Supported
Lanng almost died of anemia due to extreme Tradeshift workload
“I almost died of anemia, actually, because I just didn't have time to go to the doctor.”
Opinion
Lanng: Founders inevitably sacrifice their health building startups
“So yeah, you absolutely sacrifice your health over, over this process.”
Disclosure
Christian Lanng: Pandemic burnout made me hate seeing Tradeshift's logo
“Suddenly I was just sitting, you know, for 14:16 hours in front of a screen every day, no breaks. I remember having to sort of, like, schedule bio breaks just to be able to run to the restroom, and the rest was just one continuous stream, and I remember, this …”
Insight
Christian Lanng: Founder burnout develops gradually like a frog slowly boiling
“It's like a bit like the frog getting boiled slowly, right? You don't see it when you're in it, and it took sort of some pretty big reality checks both on my health and on my work that made me realize, no, you're not in, in a healthy place, right?”
Assertion Supported
Lanng: Startup revenue multiples dropped from 40-60x down to 7x
“We moved from a world where there was 40, 60 X revenue multiples to a world where there's seven X, right?”
Insight
Lanng: Grit alone gets the job done but does not bring happiness
“Grid alone don't make you happy. It just make, it just get the job done, right? It just get you to the other side.”
What-if
Lanng: Prioritizing personal happiness would have ruined Tradeshift
“I mean, I made some decisions where I could have gone a different path, I could have gone a very different path, and probably You know, had a very different outcome and been happier, but it would not, I mean, it would have been a disaster for the company and f…”
Insight
Lanng: Most founders are people who can't quit
“Most founders are people who can't quit, and that's both a blessing and a curse, but happiness is not a given.”
Insight
Lanng: Leaders cannot publicly share mental health struggles with their entire company
“As the leader, like, you're a symbol in a way, right? You can't go in a town hall in the whole company and say, listen, guys, I'm actually getting severely depressed at doing the work, or like, you know, I'm suffering from burnout, and I'm not sure I can go th…”
Opinion
Late-stage startup boards offer no space for mental health discussions
“If you think about the type of funds and capital managers and people you deal with at a late stage growth startup, I mean, there's probably as much space to have that mental health conversation as there is on Wall Street in general, which is not a lot, right?”
Insight
Lanng: Being critical improves ideas, while cynicism gives up prematurely
“Critical is to try to improve an idea and to pressure test it to make it as good as possible, and cynical just means you've given up before you even try”
Assertion Supported
Lanng: Standardized SaaS metrics like Rule of 40 didn't exist in 2009
“SaaS metrics should be this, and this should be your margin, and rule of 40, and all of this. Like, are you aware that none of this existed? 14 years ago. People, we were making it up as we went along. It's like, what should be great metrics for a SaaS company…”
Opinion
Stebbings: Paying a valuation premium for second-time founders is worth it
“I always say, like, I would so much rather invest in second-time founders and pay a premium, because I think the lessons that you've learned prevent you from making so many very significant mistakes”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lanng: VCs own most equity after six years for 99% of startups
“The first thing is, for 99% of startups, you know, I mean, No offense, but VCs is gonna own most of your company by the time you have worked for six or seven years, and your salary will probably be less than if you had worked anywhere else combined.”
Disclosure
Lanng spent four years in hotels over 14-year Tradeshift tenure
“I think I spent around four and a half, four years in hotels over 14 years.”
Disclosure
Lanng: TradeShift Had a Skype Group Celebrating Work at 2 AM
“We used to have a Skype group, and Skype was a thing of a few people in the company that was called, Late night motherfucking XYZ. And that was because at two AM we were all sitting, solving some problem, getting something done, getting somewhere, and we were …”
Insight
Lanng: Founder parents must choose between shielding kids or including them
“You have two choices if you want to do this, and you have kids, right? You can try to, Shield them and keep them away from it, or you can try to include them so they can see what it is.”
Insight
Stebbings: Success across multiple founder and investor roles is zero-sum
“I constantly feel guilty, because I constantly feel like I'm failing as a son, as a brother, as a boyfriend, as a fund manager, as an entrepreneur. There's so many different fucking hats. That if I'm winning in one, I'm by nature failing in another.”
Disclosure
Stebbings: I derive my self-worth from my status and wealth
“There was a lot which is like, I derive my own value from, like, bluntly, my status and how much money I have.”
Insight
Lanng: Resolving childhood anger does not destroy founder drive
“What I found is like, even when it goes down a little bit and you feel less of the anger or less of the motivation from that, I didn't lose my drive.”
Insight
Lanng: VCs leverage founder fear in down markets to extract better terms
“Like, risk is just all the investors and, you know, especially when they want to, Extract a bit better terms or, you know, bully you in a down market or whatever, right? They will tell you, like, oh, we would lose you. We'd hate to see you lose everything, rig…”
Insight
Lanng: Money alone cannot sustain long-term founder drive
“Like, I mean, people who say money can't buy happiness haven't tried. You can definitely make things nicer, and you can make life nicer, but I think it gets very hard to sustain that drive if it, if it's the only thing.”
Disclosure
Lanng refused to sign Tradeshift round without protecting employee stock options
“In the latest financing round for trade shift, I refused to sign the papers until the employee stock option pool got moved from common to prep two, because I did not want All of our employees to be underwater in any potential transaction in the future.”
Opinion
Founders should never accept a 40% valuation discount for 'smart VCs'
“I kind of always disliked the whole You should pick us as a VC. We know it's a 40% discount to the other guys, but we are smart. Ah, like the smart VC, like, story, because the reality is, like, if I need to give us 40% discount because the VC is so smart that…”
Disclosure
Lanng removed team slides from pitch decks to control VC questions
“I used to always take out one or two slides of the deck, like I'll make the perfect pitch deck, and then I'll remove the team slide. All VCs will then ask the question, but what about team? And that's the question I want them to ask instead of asking some stup…”
Opinion
Lanng: VCs ask pitch questions primarily to sound smart
“VCs will always want to have a question that makes them sound smart.”
Disclosure
Lanng: Tradeshift investors supported him after public post about struggles
“A bunch of our investors also wrote me after my post. I mean some were happy with the results of the round, which they just did, some were unhappy, but they still wrote me”
Insight
Lanng: Good VCs build true loyalty by supporting founders during crises
“If an investor is good if they show up when shit is hard, right, like, everybody is just cheering when it's, like, up, up, up, it's like go faster, But the investors that I have a relationship with today are the investors that were there when stuff was really,…”
Opinion
Christian Lanng: ChatGPT is flawed because it never admits uncertainty
“Actually, that's why ChatTBT is kind of screwed, because it just want to give a perfect answer to everything, and it can't say, hey, could you clarify? I don't know, or whatever.”
Insight
Lanng: Leaders gain more trust by admitting their weaknesses
“People will actually trust you more. If you show vulnerability. If you say, hey, this is an area I'm bad at as a leader. This is an area I'm good at. Because that helped build a relationship with people.”
Insight
Christian Lanng: Becoming jaded lets bad actors define your identity
“If you let yourself become jaded, then you let those people define who you are.”
Insight
Christian Lanng: Key talent burnout causes massive startup value destruction
“And I think startups is 99% people. That is the primary asset. And if the wrong person goes down at the wrong time, that can be a very, very big destruction of value, right?”
Opinion
Lanng: Tech companies should ban internal political discussions to focus on building
“And I like what David Heinemann says, like, he banned politics in, in, in in signals and I think that's absolutely right. I think we shouldn't sit around the table discussing all this stuff. We should just build something and make it work, and if we're allowin…”
Insight
Christian Lanng: Startups should be run as teams, not families
“One of the things we put into what we're building right now is that That we are a team, not a family.”
Disclosure
Lanng fired a high school friend after working together for 10 years
“I fired a person that I've known since high school. I worked with for 10 years who moved to California as part of the journey.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lanng: Tradeshift fired 50% of VPs with no productivity loss
“At one point we fired 50% of the VPs in TradeShift. And there was no drop of productivity.”
Insight
Lanng: Higher prices accelerated Tradeshift's enterprise sales cycle
“We found out in trade shift very early on that there was an inverse relationship between price and speed of sales cycle. The more we charged, the faster we closed.”
Opinion
Lanng: European startups lag Silicon Valley due to work-life balance
“We just honestly like vacation a little bit too much. We like coming home at five with the kids. Like we're starting to have other things that are other benefits, right? Because I mean, like, look, the very best people in the world in, in say AI or engineering…”
Opinion
Lanng: Salesforce turns software users into robotic button-clickers
“Salesforce don't have a human in the center. Salesforce makes you into a robot that has to click buttons in a certain order.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lanng: Enterprise software spend grew to $780B while IT headcount doubled
“IT corporate budgets, they went from three hundred billion to seven hundred eighty billion dollars in enterprise software over the last 10 years. At the same time, we doubled the amount of people in shared services, eight to sixteen million, and we doubled the…”
Opinion
Lanng: AI-first startups today are as revolutionary as early cloud companies
“That's actually where, I mean, one of the reasons also I got so fascinated was like, to me, building a startup today that is AI first is as pivotal or revolutionary as it were, 14 years ago to build the first cloud companies.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lanng: Counting Apple out of the AI race is a major mistake
“And I think, by the way, everybody will be making a mix, make a big mistake if they count Apple out of the AI race. They're gonna come With a hundred miles an hour, I mean, they come in, it would be really, really good.”
Insight
Lanng: Enterprise software is multi-polar, not winner-takes-all like consumer
“Because enterprise is a multi-polar world. It's not winner-takes-all. I mean, Peter Thiel's power laws works really well in consumer, but in enterprise, there's so many modes. I mean, compliance, regulatory, Incompetence.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lanng: Meta's open-source model matched ChatGPT-3.5 locally within 9 months
“But nine months later, I was running on my laptop a model that was as powerful as ChatGPT three and a half that was released as open source by Facebook.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lanng: Traditional software user interfaces will be obsolete within three years
“There would be a new generation of user interfaces that haven't fully been invented yet, but we will look at all of the screens of the applications we use every day as dinosaurs in less than three years.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Christian Lanng: Software will shift entirely to consumption-based pricing
“I think we're gonna absolutely move to consumption-based pricing. It's the only way. I think it's gonna be very hard to hold the mold mode on, on recurring revenue as it is today. Because customers will want to see more value, and they'll want to see a more so…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lanng: 99% of venture capital invested in AI will be wasted
“99% of the money going in is going to be lit on fire, and two, we are underestimating the impact of AI.”
Disclosure
Lanng: Beyond Work banned using AI as a marketing term
“In Beyond Work, we banned talking or using AI as a, as something we talk about.”
Insight
Lanng: AI is just underlying infrastructure, not the value proposition
“AI is Essentially as interesting as saying database or, you know, we have an HTML rendering layer or whatever. It's a set of technologies, and I think what is really, really important, and I think most people right now that are rushing into, as you said, AI is…”
Insight
Lanng: Trust in AI co-workers must be intentionally designed through UX cues
“I mean that for us to really truly trust AI in the work environment, we need to have cues, and we need to feel we can trust them as co-workers. I think that is absolutely a user experience that needs to be designed.”
Disclosure
Beyond Work programs AI to ask questions to build human trust
“In fact, some of the things we've been playing around with is, we call it, if in doubt, ask. We sometimes ask when we already know the answer.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lanng: Pursuing AGI Will Disappoint Due to Asymptotic Limits in AI
“Everybody who's pushing for AGI level AI right now, they're going to be sorely disappointed. I think it's an asymptomatic curve, and I think we're going to end up with Waymo-style cars, meaning you almost have a lawyer, but not quite, and the five percent you …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Stebbings: Society is overestimating how quickly large corporations will adopt AI
“I think we are overestimating the speed of adoption with which we think large corporates will adopt AI.”
Opinion
Lanng: AI co-pilots are a desperate attempt by incumbent software to stay relevant
“So co-pilots are the last breath from the existing enterprise applications to remain relevant.”
Insight
Lanng: The future of software is removing applications and interacting directly with AI
“The better solution is to remove the application that's shit and just talk straight with AI.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lanng: Most application-based software brands will struggle due to AI
“I think actually that one of the biggest impacts of AI and LLM is that most application-based brands are going to be really struggling because the brand is the UX.”
Opinion
Lanng: Salesforce is just a database and LLMs bypass software UI layers
“I'm so sorry, but Salesforce is just a database. And LLMs are really good at talking with databases and querying data. You don't need 15 layers between you and that database to do it.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lanng: Building and retaining consumer tech brands will be extremely difficult
“And to try to build a consumer tech brand and hold on to any population of users is going to be very, very, very hard in a world where innovation is almost free and LLMs can make anything.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lanng: Proprietary Data Will Be Primary Differentiator in AI
“The biggest differentiator in the world to come is going to be proprietary data.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2028
Lanng: Copyright Issues Will Not Severely Impede AI Model Training
“I think the copyright issues are trending in a direction where I don't think it's going to be a major problem. I mean, fair use, I think, is, is, is, is covering this fairly well”
Insight
Lanng: Marginal Public Data Differences Are Rounding Errors in Large Models
“It doesn't matter if you have 10% different data if you train on one trillion parameters. It doesn't matter because it's such a big data set that that actually is such a small, Rounding error in, in what you get out on the other side.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lanng: AI will completely disrupt traditional venture capital workflows
“I know, but on, on the investment side, right, I mean, beyond work, we worked with Moonfire, and they're really interesting because they actually tried to build an AI-first venture fund. Yeah. They went out with a real framework, invested heavily in, you know,…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Harry Stebbings: AI funding will concentrate in fewer companies
“I think it's gonna be a massive concentration in dollars, but fewer companies. I think the explosion of excitement meant that everyone and their dog got saved.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lanng: More AI startups will get funded next year as top talent enters
“Yeah, I mean, I think there will still be a lot of money going into the long tail, but you're right that the concentration will happen in the top, but I think ultimately there will still be more companies getting funded just because some of the smartest people…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lanng: Second-wave AI startups will outperform early hype companies
“They spent a year or two thinking, looking a little bit at the hype, and now they're really getting into it, and I think those startups are gonna really crush it and avoid a lot of the early generation mistakes.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lanng: Reid Hoffman funded any San Francisco startup surviving post-2008
“Like Reed Hoffman, he just walked around in San Francisco and looked for any startup that has survived 2008 and just gave them money.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lanng: AI development shifted from corporate labs to Discord developers
“If you go back five, six years, it was like, AI was made by these, the cathedrals, like Google, and it was like, really serious scientists doing really serious stuff, and now people are hacking and LM models on Discord, and so, so we have this underground that…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lanng: AI startups have largely abandoned Slack for Discord
“Everyone is in Discord, by the way, now. I mean, it's so crazy, like, nobody is on Slack that I know in this environment.”
Insight
Lanng Ranks Founder First, Market Second, and Traction Third for Seed Investing
“Founder is first, because if I know who they are and I know what they've done and I invested in quite a bit of the trade shift alumni, right? That's the first, but then today I would say market, and I probably flipped it before and said traction and then marke…”