Scale

15 statements across 14 episodes · 3 bullish · 6 bearish · 4 people on the record · first statement Feb 16, 2023 by Mike Duboe · across every show →

Everything said about Scale, oldest first

Feb 16, 2023 bearish
Insight
Duboe: Paid marketing channel performance always degrades as customer acquisition scales
“The thing that many people miss early on is that paid degrades with scale. Yeah. Everyone says like, you know, you'll get better at it. So you'll fight kind of the laws of gravity that might happen in a short term, but on a long-term time horizon, performance …”
Mike Duboe Feb 16, 2023 ▶ 46:28 Mike Duboe: Top 5 Lessons Scaling Stitch Fix to IPO; Why CAC/LTV is a BS Metric | 20VC #978 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 24, 2025 negative
Opinion
O'Driscoll values post-crash 2X returns over 2021 bubble 10X deals
“I am more proud of my two X's and three X's in 2004 and 2005, six, than any 10 X that kind of sailed into the 21 bubble and made me a fortune.”
Rory O'Driscoll Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 1:05:03 How LP Deployment to Venture Will Change in 2025 & Are Endowment Funds in Trouble? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 22, 2025 neutral
Disclosure
O'Driscoll: 30-35% of growth-stage deals fail versus under 10% late-stage
“At our stage, you know, 30, 35% of our deals don't work out, right? At the stage these guys are at, most of their deals, 90% plus of their deals, when you're writing those kind of checks, should be a one X plus IPO pop.”
Rory O'Driscoll May 22, 2025 ▶ 15:41 Rippling vs. Deel Lawsuit: WTF Happens Now? The Future of the Late Stage Private Market · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 19, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Lemkin: Scale AI is a dead man walking without its founders
“There's no way that scale can recover from losing its founders. I love you, but it's a dead man walking instantly.”
Jason Lemkin Jun 19, 2025 ▶ 0:00 Chime IPO: Are IPOs Hotter Than Ever? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 24, 2025
Assertion Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: Scale passes on 7 to 10 good deals per investment
“The stunning thing is we've looked at it like you see about seven to 10 more good deals for every one deal you do, right?”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 24, 2025 ▶ 58:20 How Do All Providers Deal with Anthropic Dependency Risk & Figma IPO Breakdown: Where Does it Price? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 11, 2025 positive
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2030
O'Driscoll: Data Labeling Firms Will Sell Legally Compliant Book Datasets for AI
“I assume that there will be a much more efficient way than that of doing it. You're exactly right. I'm sure, for example, that there will be a corpus available of a purchased copy of every, you know, I'm sure that Scale some one of these label guys that says w…”
Rory O'Driscoll Sep 11, 2025 ▶ 44:17 OpenAI’s $10BN Secondary Sale, Ramp Hits $1BN ARR & Brex Hits $700M · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 30, 2025 bullish
Disclosure
O'Driscoll: Scale's most recent deal valuation exceeded 20x ARR
“It was higher.”
Rory O'Driscoll Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 35:03 OpenAI Restructuring: Who Wins and Who Loses & Mercor Raises $350M at a $10BN Valuation · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 6, 2025
Insight
O'Driscoll: Vertical AI Market Size Equals Professionals Times Work Automated
“You should know for each of the tools, professional does, how many of that profession exist, how many lawyers, how many doctors, how many bankers, how many wealth advisors, cause that's your time, you know, and I'm tracking that. And then it, so it's really nu…”
Rory O'Driscoll Nov 6, 2025 ▶ 1:07:14 Is a $4.5BN Exit Enough in VC? & Harvey Raises $150M & Why Google is a Buy and Amazon is a Sell · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 12, 2026 bearish
Disclosure
O'Driscoll: Scale passed on direct competitors to Sierra and Decagon
“We looked at a number of companies that were behind Sierra and Decagon and came to the conclusion that a direct head-to-head Against those companies, when you're a smart, it's just a little bit too hard.”
Rory O'Driscoll Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 56:50 Anthropic's Super Bowl Ad: Who Won & Lost? | Sierra Hits $150M ARR: Is Customer Support Too Crowded? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 12, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: Intercom will capture significant market share in AI customer service
“I'll tell you what I am betting on. I'm betting on that they can carve out a significant space in that market for that product, and that they've had explosive growth in it, and coming from the sass, I'm betting that I'm betting that that team coming from the S…”
Rory O'Driscoll Mar 12, 2026 ▶ 47:20 Anthropic vs The Pentagon: Who Wins? | The Data Center Arms Race | The Ultimate Stock Picks · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 26, 2026 bearish
Disclosure
O'Driscoll: Capping Scale's entry valuations under $400M was the wrong play
“We haven't done deals with a billion dollars, but we kept it in a 100 to three, four hundred million dollar pre-money valuation, and right now that's been the wrong play, just to put it out there, right?”
Rory O'Driscoll Mar 26, 2026 ▶ 1:14:31 Why You Need a $1B Fund To Do Series A | SpaceX at $2TRN & Data Centers in Space | Groq's $20BN Deal · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 26, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: AI coding apps spend 40-50% of revenue on tokens
“There's a ton of really interesting apps that, you know, for five, seven, eight percent of revenue on tokens are building huge value, which my sense at least is very different than the coding apps where you might be at 40 or 50%.”
Rory O'Driscoll Mar 26, 2026 ▶ 14:44 Why You Need a $1B Fund To Do Series A | SpaceX at $2TRN & Data Centers in Space | Groq's $20BN Deal · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 2, 2026 negative
Insight
O'Driscoll: VCs only significantly contribute money, CEO hiring, and broad strategy
“And I think that's right because realistically, in the journey of what's going on, the only significant things we've done, I've said this before in the podcast, we put in the money and we put in more money when they need it. We decide to hire or not hire and f…”
Rory O'Driscoll Apr 2, 2026 ▶ 1:10:42 OpenAI Kills Sora & Hits $100M ARR on Ads | Oura Going Public & Whoop Raises at $10BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 4, 2026
Insight
Customer acquisition costs do not inevitably rise with scale
“At scale, I think with scale, with assortment, with brand value new channels become unlocked, new efficiency grows leverage accelerates with assortment. I think it often only goes one way, but I don't think always.”
Andrew Dudum Apr 4, 2026 ▶ 1:00:25 How Hims & Hers Reached a $4.3BN Market Cap on $2.3BN of Revenue | Andrew Dudum · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 16, 2026 neutral
What-if
Rory O'Driscoll: Scale passed on early Anthropic deal over pricing and doomerism
“What I realized is if I'd met them at the sea, which I didn't, because it was outside our price bracket, but if I'd met them, I would have done exactly what you did, Jess, and I would have listened to the doom warnings, and I said, that's all silly and wrong, …”
Rory O'Driscoll Apr 16, 2026 ▶ 10:18 SpaceX's Financials Leaked: Is it Worth $2TN | Meta Debuts Muse Spark: Are They Back in the AI Race? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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