open models

also referred to as: open model · openmodel

15 statements across 12 episodes · 9 bullish · 3 bearish · 11 people on the record · first statement May 17, 2023 by Emad Mostaque · across every show →

Everything said about open models, oldest first

May 17, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mostaque: Every nation needs its own open AI models and data sets
“As part of that, every nation will need their own data sets, which again have from broadcaster data. They will need their own open models that can stimulate innovation internally as well.”
Emad Mostaque May 17, 2023 ▶ 18:13 Emad Mostaque: These 5 Companies Will Win the AI War; Why We Need National Data Sets | E1015 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 15, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Emad Mostaque: Every Nation Will Need Sovereign Datasets and Open Models
“As part of that, every nation will need their own data sets, which again, have from broadcaster data. They will need their own open models that can stimulate innovation internally as well.”
Emad Mostaque Sep 15, 2023 ▶ 15:35 20VC: The Biggest AI Leaders on What Matters More; Model Size or Data Size & Where Does The Value in AI Accrue; to Startups or to Incumbents
Jul 31, 2024 negative
Prediction Held up
Mollick: Open-source AI safety guardrails will be breached immediately
“And I do think that open models will immediately have their guardrails breached.”
Ethan Mollick Jul 31, 2024 ▶ 16:28 Ethan Mollick: Why OpenAl Abandons Products, The Biggest Opportunities They Have Not Taken | E1184 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 14, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Biilmann: Open AI ecosystems will defeat closed verticalized models
“And it'll actually be an advantage for like the agent builders to not be tied to a specific model and be able to like, just jump around between whichever model is best. And I think once that start is happening, we're going to have like that, that's going to me…”
Matt Biilmann Mar 14, 2025 ▶ 28:59 20Product: How to Design and Build Products in a World of Agents | Why AI Will Kill Many SaaS Products | What Products Will Thrive and Die in a World of 100M Developers with Matt Biilmann, Co-Founder and CEO @ Netlify
Aug 18, 2025 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2030
Osika: The best AI models will always remain closed-source
“I think the best ones will always be closed but if you want maximal flexibility and some kind of open ecosystem around it might be that open ones are the ones that most people choose.”
Anton Osika Aug 18, 2025 ▶ 1:07:18 Lovable CEO, Anton Osika: The State of Foundation Models, Grok vs OpenAI, and Replit vs Bolt · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 13, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Grinberg: Enterprises will realize frontier AI models are unnecessary for most tasks
“A lot of enterprises will realize so many of the tasks that we're doing, we don't need the very frontier to do it. Like, and we can do it much faster, much cheaper with these open models.”
Matan Grinberg Jun 13, 2026 ▶ 14:41 OpenAI vs Anthropic vs Open-Source | Token Maxing, AI Hangovers & The Coming ROI Reckoning · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 13, 2026 negative
Insight
Grinberg: User ego drives unnecessary reliance on frontier AI models
“There's kind of an ego thing, where, oh no, no, the work that I'm doing, only a frontier model could handle. Oh, this mere open model can't deal with the work that I'm dealing with. And this is like, even admittedly, when I first started switching over, I'd be…”
Matan Grinberg Jun 13, 2026 ▶ 15:15 OpenAI vs Anthropic vs Open-Source | Token Maxing, AI Hangovers & The Coming ROI Reckoning · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 15, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
World's largest enterprises will fine-tune open-source AI models
“Absolutely. Because it's in your incentives to bring down the cost.”
Aravind Srinivas Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 1:20:25 Perplexity CEO: Micron Will Be More Valuable Than Meta & How Export Controls Helped Not Hurt China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 18, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Randle: Open models with test-time compute match Fable's security vulnerability finding
“With the right harness and the right amount of test time compute, you can use open models to find all of the vulnerabilities that Fable can find.”
Everett Randle Jun 18, 2026 ▶ 31:15 Anthropic's Fable Banned by US Government | Wix & Adobe Hit All-Time Lows | Mistral Raising at $20BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 20, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Fireworks AI uses open-source models internally for hiring, finance, and coding
“So within, ah, within Firewalls, obviously, we dock for our own product. We use OpenModel to drive our recruiting process, candidate sourcing, and the feedback collection. We use OpenModel to even drive some internal finance processes. Obviously, for coding, w…”
Lin Qiao Jul 20, 2026 ▶ 13:08 The Open-Source AI Reality | How Token Costs Will Fall 10X & Usage Will Explode 100X | Lin Qiao
Jul 25, 2026 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Nitski: Top AI models cannot handle 90% of enterprise workflows
“I'm not convinced that 90% of enterprise workflows can be handled by open models or Frontier models right now.”
Osvald Nitski Jul 25, 2026 ▶ 2:30 Mercor Head of Product on Revenue Concentration from Frontier Labs
Aug 29, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Reyes: Almost all AI model usage will be open in three years
“I think close to, I think almost all usage of models in three years are going to be primarily open, but that difference between frontier and open is going to become actually larger than it is today.”
Eno Reyes Aug 29, 2026 ▶ 48:05 Should American Enterprises Work With Open-Source Chinese Models? | Only 10% of Neo-labs survive
Aug 29, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Reyes: Open-source models will likely dominate commodity AI tasks
“There is going to be probably a difference between the commodity task executors. So this is just like your everything model and that we think will be dominated by open models.”
Eno Reyes Aug 29, 2026 ▶ 5:00 Should American Enterprises Work With Open-Source Chinese Models? | Only 10% of Neo-labs survive
Aug 29, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Reyes: Local open models will be the most cost-effective consumer solution in 1-3 years
“I think that probably the consumer will continue to follow the sort of like most cost effective solution. And so what does that look like in one, two, three years? I think it's open models. I think the most cost effective solution for a model is going to be th…”
Eno Reyes Aug 29, 2026 ▶ 22:47 Should American Enterprises Work With Open-Source Chinese Models? | Only 10% of Neo-labs survive
Aug 31, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Katz: AI token volume will split 50-50 between open and frontier models
“Well, the easy answer is fifty-fifty in the same way that what percentage of enterprise software today is open source versus proprietary. I think it's a pretty even distribution.”
Aaron Katz Aug 31, 2026 ▶ 21:42 ClickHouse CEO: AI Margins Need to Improve | Revenue Concentration Should be a Concern
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