foundation model companies

9 statements across 9 episodes · 4 bullish · 2 bearish · 5 people on the record · first statement Jun 2, 2023 by Emad Mostaque · across every show →

Everything said about foundation model companies, oldest first

Jun 2, 2023 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2028
Mostak: Only 5 or 6 Foundation Model Companies Will Exist in 3-5 Years
“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years.”
Emad Mostaque Jun 2, 2023 ▶ 3:56 20VC: Who Wins the AI Race; Startups or Incumbents & Does Having Proprietary Data Really Matter For Startups Today?
Sep 15, 2023
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2028
Emad Mostaque: Only Five Foundation Model Companies Will Survive by 2028
“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years.”
Emad Mostaque Sep 15, 2023 ▶ 27:37 20VC: The Biggest AI Leaders on What Matters More; Model Size or Data Size & Where Does The Value in AI Accrue; to Startups or to Incumbents
May 24, 2024
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2029
Emad Mostaque: Only 5 or 6 foundation model companies will survive
“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years. I think it's going to be us, Nvidia, Google, Microsoft, OpenAI, and Meta, and Apple probably are the ones that train these models.”
Emad Mostaque May 24, 2024 ▶ 10:19 Sam Altman, Arthur Mensch and more discuss:Which Startups Are Threatened vs Enabled by OpenAI?|E1156 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 19, 2024 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2029
Eisenberg: Only one or two foundation model startups will prove profitable
“There is, there are one or two companies. In there that will make their venture investors a lot of money and the rest of them will cost their LPs and GPs a lot of money.”
Michael Eisenberg Jun 19, 2024 ▶ 8:52 Michael Eisenberg: How China Could Overtake the US in the AI Race | E1167 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 15, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Foundation model API providers will eventually operate as a high-margin oligopoly
“I think the market structure will end up sort of like cloud for the models where, you know, cloud costs for the average end customer are fine. And, you know, cloud's an oligopoly and they make high profits. I think the model companies, you know, that serve API…”
David George Dec 15, 2025 ▶ 44:42 a16z's David George on the Most Controversial Bet at a16z & Do Margins and Revenue Matter in AI? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 12, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2029
Stebbings: IT consultants will out-earn foundation models in short-term revenue
“I think they will be more revenue generative than the foundation model companies in the next two to three years, as they often are in early stages of kind of cycles.”
Harry Stebbings Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 7:53 Anthropic's Super Bowl Ad: Who Won & Lost? | Sierra Hits $150M ARR: Is Customer Support Too Crowded? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 9, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: Foundation model AI companies will survive any market crunch
“Because look, the truth, even when the crunch comes, the foundation model companies make it. Because they, they're on top of the heap. They have the high intellectual property asset, right? They're going to make it.”
Rory O'Driscoll Apr 9, 2026 ▶ 1:01:52 OpenAI Buys TBPN & Their Management Team Reboot | Mercor Hack & Why Now is the Time for Cyber · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 23, 2026
Assertion Contradicted
O'Driscoll: Hyperscaler RPO depends entirely on foundation model commitments
“Because, let me be clear, if you know the answer to that question, that one question, you know the answer to the entire direction of the U.S. Stock market for the next two years. Because all the hyperscaler RPO, all of it, is a function of the commitments they…”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 23, 2026 ▶ 45:44 Should the US Ban Chinese Open-Source Models | OpenRouter's Chance To Sell | Stripe Buying PayPal
Sep 10, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2031
O'Driscoll: Public foundation model companies will acquire neo-labs for TAM expansion
“Some of them might, will be great investments, because I do think the foundation model companies, once the public will be acquirers of some of this stuff for time expansion, but they won't all be great investments.”
Rory O'Driscoll Sep 10, 2026 ▶ 58:29 Jensen Huang Declares AGI Has Arrived | Tesla Launches Cybercabs | Index Pulls Out of Town
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