foundation model

also referred to as: foundation models

24 statements across 17 episodes · 7 bullish · 10 bearish · 15 people on the record · first statement May 8, 2024 by Tom Hulme · across every show →

Everything said about foundation model, oldest first

May 8, 2024 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2027
Hulme: 90% of AI foundation model capital will go to zero
“Foundation models, 90%. Application layer, 70%. And in the incumbents, the value going into the incumbents, only 20%.”
Tom Hulme May 8, 2024 ▶ 54:01 Tom Hulme: Lessons from a 24x Angel Track Record, 275x on Robinhood & Making Billions on Uber |E1150 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 8, 2024 bearish
Disclosure
Hulme: GV has avoided investing directly in foundation model startups
“Now we have made investments in Gen AI, but more in infrastructure, more in the application layer, more in the sort of picks and shovels to support, but we've not thus far invested in foundation models.”
Tom Hulme May 8, 2024 ▶ 46:27 Tom Hulme: Lessons from a 24x Angel Track Record, 275x on Robinhood & Making Billions on Uber |E1150 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 24, 2024 bearish
Disclosure
Tom Hulme: Google Ventures avoids foundation models to focus on AI apps
“Now we have made investments in Gen AI, but more in infrastructure, more in the application layer, more in the sort of picks and shovels to support, but we've not thus far invested in foundation models.”
Tom Hulme May 24, 2024 ▶ 3:47 Sam Altman, Arthur Mensch and more discuss:Which Startups Are Threatened vs Enabled by OpenAI?|E1156 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 5, 2024 bullish
Insight
Srinivas: Direct customer access lets AI apps sell commodity models at premium
“If models get commoditized, then the price of the models goes down. And then those who directly reach the user using those models, harnessing the power of those models, but packaging it into like great product experience and utility value and directly own the …”
Aravind Srinivas Jun 5, 2024 ▶ 46:16 Aravind Srinivas:Will Foundation Models Commoditise & Diminishing Returns in Model Performance|E1161 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 5, 2024
Assertion Supported
Srinivas: Foundation model training requires three-year advance GPU commitments
“Because the way it works is you have to pay three years in advance to get a big cluster. Like you have to commit to that. It's not like all the money goes away immediately, but you have to commit to three year To get like, you know, thousands of GPUs at once i…”
Aravind Srinivas Jun 5, 2024 ▶ 49:58 Aravind Srinivas:Will Foundation Models Commoditise & Diminishing Returns in Model Performance|E1161 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 5, 2024 bullish
Insight
Srinivas: Application layer benefits most from foundation model commoditization
“The biggest beneficiaries of the commoditization of foundation models are the application layer companies.”
Aravind Srinivas Jun 5, 2024 ▶ 46:10 Aravind Srinivas:Will Foundation Models Commoditise & Diminishing Returns in Model Performance|E1161 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 10, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Users Will Orchestrate Multiple AI Models Like an Orchestra Conductor
“I think there will still be differences, but I think our behavior, both in creating products and as individuals, will be almost more like kind of a conductor in an orchestra. It'll be like, well, you know, a little bit, you know, louder on the bass, a little b…”
Reid Hoffman Jun 10, 2024 ▶ 10:09 Reid Hoffman: The Future of TikTok and The Inflection AI Deal | E1163 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 10, 2024 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Foundation AI Models Will Not Become Simple Commodities
“I do think that it won't be, that it's kind of like a grain, like grain of wheat. Or a pound of copper, you know, kind of in the classic thing. I think that foundation models will be different. They'll be different, like there'll be this one, there'll be found…”
Reid Hoffman Jun 10, 2024 ▶ 8:40 Reid Hoffman: The Future of TikTok and The Inflection AI Deal | E1163 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 10, 2024 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2029
Pure-Play AI Foundation Model Companies Will Be Viable Businesses
“So I think that there is literally no doubt in my mind that there's viable businesses that will play out, and... Purely in the foundation model. Purely in the foundation model”
Reid Hoffman Jun 10, 2024 ▶ 14:11 Reid Hoffman: The Future of TikTok and The Inflection AI Deal | E1163 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 12, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Alex Wang: AI value will accrue above and below foundation models
“I think that the models themselves there's so much competition there that I don't know if, I don't know how much value accrues at literally the model itself, but the everything above the model and everything below the model, I feel very confident there will be…”
Alex Wang Jun 12, 2024 ▶ 26:13 Alex Wang: Why Data Not Compute is the Bottleneck to Foundation Model Performance | E1164 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 12, 2024
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2034
Alex Wang: AI foundation models will cost $100B+ to train within 10 years
“I think in 10 years time, maybe they'll cost tens or hundreds of billions. And so there's just not very many entities that have that much discretion and capital to invest into these AI models. So naturally what will happen over time is AI effort, the foundatio…”
Alex Wang Jun 12, 2024 ▶ 43:20 Alex Wang: Why Data Not Compute is the Bottleneck to Foundation Model Performance | E1164 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 19, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Eisenberg: Foundation models are the fastest depreciating asset in history
“Foundation models are the fastest depreciating asset in history.”
Michael Eisenberg Jun 19, 2024 ▶ 4:33 Michael Eisenberg: How China Could Overtake the US in the AI Race | E1167 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 19, 2024 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Eisenberg: Israel lacks talent density for foundation models due to military focus
“We didn't think there was a talent density in Israel specifically for foundation models. Because a lot of the Israeli technology comes out of the military and not academia.”
Michael Eisenberg Jun 19, 2024 ▶ 10:11 Michael Eisenberg: How China Could Overtake the US in the AI Race | E1167 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 8, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Grady: Freezing current AI models would still create tens of trillions in value
“I don't know if the data supports this or not, but I think that even if you were to freeze the capability set of the current foundation models and turn all of your attention to optimization and tuning and developer ecosystem, it would revolutionize trillions o…”
Pat Grady Jul 8, 2024 ▶ 1:09:01 Pat Grady: Sequoia Partner on Investing Lessons from Doug Leone, Roelof Botha and Alfred Lin | E1174 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 6, 2024 neutral
Opinion
Chirls: Foundation model startups align with mega-VC deployment goals
“Like the foundation models are like a big, big VC firm's dream. They literally require billions and billions of dollars to go buy effectively NVIDIA GPUs.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 0:17 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 9, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wang: The world will ultimately have three to five AI foundation models
“So maybe there's three to five foundation models in the world. It's not going to be 10. It's not going to be 20.”
Jeff Wang Oct 9, 2024 ▶ 50:51 Jeff Wang: Sequoia Capital's $9BN Global Equities Fund on The Future for NVIDIA, Google & Meta|E1212 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 15, 2025 bullish
Opinion
AI coding and foundation model hype is matched by real value
“Nothing jumps out to me on that, because obviously, like, I think the things with the most hype are code and foundation models and maybe starting to be use cases in finance, and I feel like The value being created is also very real.”
Brendan Foody Sep 15, 2025 ▶ 39:03 Mercor CEO & Co-Founder, Brendan Foody: How They Grew from $1M to $500M in 17 Months · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 19, 2025 neutral
Insight
Zhang: Better base models provide minimal advantage to AI application layer
“I actually don't think we, there's that much advantage in a lot of application layer sort of solutions from having a better model. There is some advantage for sure.”
Jesse Zhang Sep 19, 2025 ▶ 54:10 20VC: Why 90% of Founders Build Startups Wrong | Why AI Growth Rates are Sustainable & Remote Work is BS and the AI Talent War | Competing with Brett Taylor and Sierra: Who Wins the Customer Service War with Jesse Zhang, Decagon
Nov 14, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rivera: Foundation models will replace niche AI startup products
“I worry perhaps for startups that a lot of the things that they offer that are these sort of like niche carve out experiences for a category will be replaced by the broad based foundation models. And that many of these companies that I've seen a very rapid ris…”
Carl Rivera Nov 14, 2025 ▶ 1:01:16 20Product: How AI Changes Product Design | Does the Design Phase Become Irrelevant in a World of Vibe Coding | The Five Pillars of Truly Great Product Design with Carl Rivera, Chief Design Officer at Shopify
Apr 7, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hassabis: Foundation models will not be replaced, but built upon for AGI
“I don't think it's going to get replaced. I think it's going to get built on top of these foundation models, just like the way we do with our world models.”
Demis Hassabis Apr 7, 2026 ▶ 12:21 Demis Hassabis: Why AGI is Bigger than the Industrial Revolution & Where Are The Bottlenecks in AI · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 16, 2026 negative
Insight
Vertical AI startups cannot win by fighting foundation model labs
“If you are fighting against them, you've already lost. If you haven't figured out how you're going to win with them, how you're gonna not just coexist, but actually find ways to collaborate potentially, and if the tailwinds that they create are not yours to le…”
Shiv Rao May 16, 2026 ▶ 15:28 The Five Year Desert to Product Market Fit & a $5.3BN Valuation with Shiv Rao, Founder @ Abridge · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 11, 2026 neutral
Insight
O'Driscoll: Foundation models require 100x to 1,000x more capital than software
“The amount of money that you need to build a foundation model is two or three orders of magnitude more than anything else.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jun 11, 2026 ▶ 1:08:46 SpaceX Launches Largest Ever IPO | OpenAI Files to Go Public | Uber Cuts 23% of HR · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 2, 2026 bearish
Insight
O'Driscoll: Protecting AI Frontier Models Harms Economy by Raising Intelligence Costs
“Because what you're saying is keep up the price of AI as an input to the rest of the economy by protecting, protecting these foundation models pricing structure so that they can get a trillion dollars in revenue. And the loser, as always is the case with trade…”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 2, 2026 ▶ 29:16 Coinbase Cuts AI Spend by 50% | Kalshi's $40B Valuation & Impending IPO | The Year for SaaS Roll-Ups · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 31, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Park: Simile co-founder Percy Liang coined the term foundation model
“Percy was the person who literally coined the term foundation model.”
Joon Sung Park Jul 31, 2026 ▶ 26:03 The AI Company Simulating the Entire Economy | Simile Co-founder & CEO, Joon Sung Park
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