Conviction

11 statements across 5 episodes · 3 bullish · 2 bearish · 6 people on the record · first statement Nov 30, 2022 by Jason Lemkin · said 17 times in 4 episodes since 2023 · across every show →

Mentions by year

brought up most by Harry Stebbings (12), Sarah Guo (4), Victor Lazarte (1)

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Everything said about Conviction, oldest first

Nov 30, 2022 negative
Insight
Lemkin: 'Conviction' in VC often justifies sloppy thinking
“One of the VCisms I hate is conviction. Right. Because conviction can justify so much sloppy thinking, but it doesn't mean it's wrong.”
Jason Lemkin Nov 30, 2022 ▶ 47:57 Jason Lemkin: Cold Email Tips; Why Only 15% of Founders Listen to their VCs | 20VC #954 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 28, 2023 bullish
Disclosure
Guo: Conviction will not reserve capital for follow-on investments
“Like we are going to invest in the early rounds of a company and we're going to leave money on the table in the later rounds. And it's an explicit decision, but what it means, it's like very focusing, right? Like we make the bets we make with them. We're align…”
Sarah Guo Apr 28, 2023 ▶ 48:25 Sarah Guo: On Her New $101M Fund; How AI Impacts Inequality; AI Startups vs Incumbents | E1007 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 28, 2023
What-if
Guo: Conviction capped debut fund at $100M despite $500M demand
“I could have raised half a billion dollars, and I thought that doing this was, if I believe constraints breed discipline and creativity for founders, like, They also do for investors.”
Sarah Guo Apr 28, 2023 ▶ 14:41 Sarah Guo: On Her New $101M Fund; How AI Impacts Inequality; AI Startups vs Incumbents | E1007 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 28, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sarah Guo: Conviction targets best-in-class venture multiples over absolute dollar returns
“For me, like I define it on a multiple basis, not an absolute dollar basis. Otherwise like I should have raised a larger fund. And like, you know, let's put best in class venture multiples on the board, right?”
Sarah Guo Apr 28, 2023 ▶ 52:41 Sarah Guo: On Her New $101M Fund; How AI Impacts Inequality; AI Startups vs Incumbents | E1007 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 28, 2023
Prediction Held up
Guo: Conviction will deploy $1M-$10M checks with high portfolio concentration
“They're seed and series A investments, and we're putting a million to like eight or ten million dollars to work, and we'll, we're gonna be more concentrated than most seed funds”
Sarah Guo Apr 28, 2023 ▶ 15:17 Sarah Guo: On Her New $101M Fund; How AI Impacts Inequality; AI Startups vs Incumbents | E1007 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 28, 2023 negative
Insight
Guo: $100M-$200M rounds at $1B valuations will not move the needle for a $100M fund
“I think it is unlikely that if somebody wants to raise a hundred or two hundred million dollars at a billion dollars out of the gate, like, that is hard for us to, it's hard for me to imagine that making an impact on the fund.”
Sarah Guo Apr 28, 2023 ▶ 15:53 Sarah Guo: On Her New $101M Fund; How AI Impacts Inequality; AI Startups vs Incumbents | E1007 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 28, 2023 neutral
Insight
Guo: Early-stage startup outcomes and market trajectories are inherently unknowable
“I am increasingly convinced that, like, it's not knowable what the outcomes are from, for companies, like, at the very beginning, and specifically, like, how markets play out is unknowable, because, like, there are actors with agency determining how the market…”
Sarah Guo Apr 28, 2023 ▶ 46:57 Sarah Guo: On Her New $101M Fund; How AI Impacts Inequality; AI Startups vs Incumbents | E1007 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 20, 2024
Insight
Nikesh Arora: Misaligned stakeholders cause leadership conviction to fail
“Conviction starts to not result in outcomes that you want when a lot of different people get involved and you have to rely on other people for part of your outcomes that need to happen.”
Nikesh Arora May 20, 2024 ▶ 2:45 Nikesh Arora: Lessons from $102BN Market Cap & How to Create & Sustain Competitive Advantage | E1155 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 14, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Lazarte: Sarah Guo's Conviction is my top seed fund pick
“And then I'll go, like, early I'll go with Conviction, because I think Sarah, Sarah's great.”
Victor Lazarte Apr 14, 2025 ▶ 1:11:06 Benchmark GP, Victor Lazarte: The 3 Traits All the Best Founders Have · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 10, 2025
Insight
Randle: Financial models in VC only serve to test conviction
“And so I think beyond being like a yardstick to test your conviction, models aren't that useful, but for that, they're really, really good.”
Everett Randle Nov 10, 2025 ▶ 55:00 Benchmark's GP, Everett Randle on Why Mega Funds Will Not Produce Good Returns · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 10, 2025 neutral
Insight
Peter Fenton: Investment price is the litmus test for conviction
“I remember he told me that price is a litmus test for your conviction.”
Harry Stebbings Nov 10, 2025 ▶ 1:35 Benchmark's GP, Everett Randle on Why Mega Funds Will Not Produce Good Returns · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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