ByteDance

18 statements across 8 episodes · 9 bullish · 4 bearish · 7 people on the record · first statement Oct 10, 2022 by Brad Gerstner · said 86 times in 21 episodes since 2020 · across every show →

Mentions by year

brought up most by Harry Stebbings (38), Mitchell Green (21), Peter Singlehurst (10), Marcelo Claure (3), Reid Hoffman (2), Brad Gerstner (2), Torsten Reil (1), Sebastian Kanovich (1)

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2026 33 mentions in 5 episodes 7 per episode
2025 31 mentions in 4 episodes 8 per episode
2024 11 mentions in 4 episodes 3 per episode
2023 2 mentions in 2 episodes 1 per episode
2022 4 mentions in 3 episodes 1 per episode
2021 4 mentions in 2 episodes 2 per episode
2020 1 mention in 1 episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about ByteDance, oldest first

Oct 10, 2022 negative
Disclosure
Gerstner: Not writing a bigger check into ByteDance was his biggest mistake
“Not writing a bigger check into ByteDance.”
Brad Gerstner Oct 10, 2022 ▶ 1:21:04 Brad Gerstner: How I Pick Companies; Lessons from Warren Buffet; Chamath vs Gurley | E935 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 13, 2023
Assertion Supported
Dash: ByteDance Used Chinese Revenues from Douyin to Buy US Market
“I think they did it at a scale leveraging all of the revenues that they had gotten in China already via Dao Win and To Tiao and actually leverage that to really buy out the U.S. Market.”
Suchit Dash Sep 13, 2023 ▶ 39:36 Suchit Dash: Scaling Dubsmash to 43M Users, Battling TikTok & Joining Reddit | E1060 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 10, 2024 bearish
Prediction Held up
ByteDance Will Delay TikTok Action Until After the US Presidential Election
“Likely, and I have no inside information here, I think ByteDance waits for the election, because they presume that Trump could get bought off by investors since, you know, he's a coin-operated person in his entire life, not just as in his presidency.”
Reid Hoffman Jun 10, 2024 ▶ 59:28 Reid Hoffman: The Future of TikTok and The Inflection AI Deal | E1163 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 11, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Torsten Reil: If running ByteDance, he would immediately shut down TikTok
“Probably ByteDance, and I would shut down TikTok immediately.”
Torsten Reil Dec 11, 2024 ▶ 1:12:17 Torsten Reil, Helsing Founder: Raising $828M to Build the Defence Champion of Europe | E1237 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 19, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Singlehurst: Baillie Gifford expects 5x ByteDance return despite US TikTok ban
“I mean, like, our base case is that it does get banned, and we still see a path. After making at least five times our money, even with TikTok not being part of that investment case.”
Peter Singlehurst Mar 19, 2025 ▶ 33:47 Peter Singlehurst: Lessons from Turning Down Stripe, Coinbase and Losing Money on Northvalt · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 19, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Singlehurst: ByteDance leads online ads and ranks third in Chinese e-commerce
“They're the market leader in online advertising in China. And I think at the moment they're about number three in e-commerce in China.”
Peter Singlehurst Mar 19, 2025 ▶ 33:02 Peter Singlehurst: Lessons from Turning Down Stripe, Coinbase and Losing Money on Northvalt · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 19, 2025 positive
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2030
Singlehurst: ByteDance will eventually go public in Hong Kong or US
“I think it'll be public at some point. I think either in the US or Hong Kong, obviously one of those is probably a little bit more likely than the other.”
Peter Singlehurst Mar 19, 2025 ▶ 34:20 Peter Singlehurst: Lessons from Turning Down Stripe, Coinbase and Losing Money on Northvalt · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 26, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Green: ByteDance will be a top global AI company within ten years
“I think they're gonna be one of the foremost AI companies on, on the planet over the next decade.”
Mitchell Green Mar 26, 2025 ▶ 1:01:52 Mitchell Green, Founder @ Lead Edge Capital: Why Traditional VC is Broken · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 26, 2025
Assertion Contradicted
Green: Only three $100B+ companies were created post-iPhone
“You know, since the iPhone came out in 2007, 2006, whatever it was, there's only been three companies built that did not exist before. That were a hundred billion dollar companies. ByteDance, Pindo Doe, and Uber.”
Mitchell Green Mar 26, 2025 ▶ 7:49 Mitchell Green, Founder @ Lead Edge Capital: Why Traditional VC is Broken · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 26, 2025 bullish
Assertion Contradicted
Green: ByteDance matches Meta in earnings while growing faster
“This is the same size business in terms of earnings grows faster.”
Mitchell Green Mar 26, 2025 ▶ 1:04:25 Mitchell Green, Founder @ Lead Edge Capital: Why Traditional VC is Broken · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 26, 2025 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Green: ByteDance North America generates only single-digit percentage of total revenue
“ByteDance North America is a, you know, single digit percentage of revenue.”
Mitchell Green Mar 26, 2025 ▶ 1:00:32 Mitchell Green, Founder @ Lead Edge Capital: Why Traditional VC is Broken · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 26, 2025 bullish
Disclosure
Green: Lead Edge bought ByteDance at 5x earnings
“Late last year we were buying ByteDance. We were paying five times earnings for it. It grows, like, 25, 30% a year.”
Mitchell Green Mar 26, 2025 ▶ 13:52 Mitchell Green, Founder @ Lead Edge Capital: Why Traditional VC is Broken · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 26, 2025 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2030
Green: ByteDance will definitely list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange
“Hong Kong, for sure. Like, by the way, Tencent's listed in Hong Kong. It's gigantic. Hong Kong, a hundred percent.”
Mitchell Green Mar 26, 2025 ▶ 1:03:56 Mitchell Green, Founder @ Lead Edge Capital: Why Traditional VC is Broken · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 7, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Green: ByteDance could reach $70B to $100B in earnings within five years
“I think it is possible to see in a few years that this company's doing, you know, 70, eighty, hundred billion of earnings in the next five years.”
Mitchell Green Mar 7, 2026 ▶ 26:29 Mitchell Green: Why 50% of VCs Should Not Exist · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 7, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
Green: ByteDance grows 30% annually with massive profits
“ByteDance Grows at, you know, 30% a year with massive profits.”
Mitchell Green Mar 7, 2026 ▶ 3:13 Mitchell Green: Why 50% of VCs Should Not Exist · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 7, 2026 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2029
Mitchell Green: ByteDance will list in Hong Kong, not the US
“Zero percent chance it'll list in the US. No, I mean, just to answer it, I have no clue, but no, it'll list in Hong Kong.”
Mitchell Green Mar 7, 2026 ▶ 26:46 Mitchell Green: Why 50% of VCs Should Not Exist · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 7, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Mitchell Green: Lead Edge Capital bought ByteDance stock at a sub-$200B valuation
“When we were buying ByteDance stock, like, you know, we were buying it at prices, like, sub, you know, around two hundred billion dollars.”
Mitchell Green Mar 7, 2026 ▶ 27:10 Mitchell Green: Why 50% of VCs Should Not Exist · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 22, 2026 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Murdock: Flipboard Turned Down ~$1B Acquisition Bids From Twitter and ByteDance
“They had two bidders going for them at the time. And that was very, very interested in them at around, I'll say within 20% of that number, and, ah, one of them was Twitter, and the other one was TikTok, the founder of ByteDance, and founder just, you know, he …”
Jerry Murdock Aug 22, 2026 ▶ 42:10 The AI Bubble WILL Burst | Should we be fearful of Chinese Open-Source | Jerry Murdock
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