The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Jumper: Equivariance explains only 2-3 GDT of AlphaFold 2's 30-point gain
“The sixth row there, no IPA, invariant point attention, that removes all the equivariance in alpha fold, and it hurts a bit, but only a bit. Alpha fold itself on this GDT scale that you can see on the left graph, alpha fold two was about 30 GDT better than alp…”
Jumper: A two-day open-source hack created the best protein interaction predictor
“The tweet on the left from Yoshitaka Morawaki came out two days after our code was available. We had predicted the structure of individual proteins, but we considered, we were working on building a system that would predict how proteins came together. But, ah,…”
Jumper: AlphaFold 2's final model trained on 128 TPUv3s for two weeks
“The final model itself was a 128 TPU V three cores, roughly equivalent to a GPU per core for two weeks.”
Jumper: AlphaFold 2 architecture on 1% of data matched AlphaFold 1
“The Al Qureshi lab, did a very, ah, careful experiment, where they took AlphaFold II, the architecture, and they trained it on one percent of the available data. And they could show that alpha fold two trained on one percent of the data was as accurate or more…”
Jumper: AlphaFold had one-third the error of any CASP competitor
“And we had about a third of the error of any other group on this assessment.”
Jumper: AlphaFold has received roughly 35,000 academic citations
“There about, I think, 35,000 citations of AlphaFold, but within that is there are tens of thousands of examples of people using our tools to do science that I couldn't do on my own.”
Jumper: About 200,000 protein structures are known, growing by 12,000 annually
“About 200,000 protein structures are known. They pretty regularly increase at about 12,000 a year.”
Jumper: Protein sequence discovery outpaces structure determination by 3,000 times
“So billions of protein sequences are being discovered. About 3000 times faster are we learning about protein sequence than protein structure.”
Jumper: Experimental protein structure determination takes 1-2 years and $100K
“The green is the experimental structure that took someone a year or two of effort. If you want to put an economic value on it, on the order of a 100,000 dollars”
Jumper: AlphaFold database scaled from 300,000 to 200 million protein predictions
“One is that we open source the code and we actually open source the code about a week before we released a database of predictions starting originally at 300,000 predictions and later going to two hundred million. Essentially every protein from an organism who…”