The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 34 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lieb: Elon Musk's hardware taste does not translate to software
“Jeff Bezos once said that, like, taste is not transferable across domains, and to me, this is like a great example of that. I would say, Elon, like, if I drive a Tesla, I think it's the best car that I've ever sat in, but the taste and the decisions they made …”
Dave Lieb predicts AI will eventually write any type of code
“I think it will get good enough to write any code.”
Lieb Secretly Designed Google Photos Despite Orders to Build Google+
“I kind of just didn't do what my bosses asked me to do. And it created a ton of conflict. I was definitely not the model employee. I just kind of did it on the back burner. I would go every day and do my day job, and then in the afternoon, I'd go spend some ti…”
Lieb: Google Photos operates at a 90-plus percent gross margin
“And it turns out it's like a 90 plus percent margin.”
Lieb: LLM technology is capable enough for non-programmers to build apps
“And this is like a great example of how the LLM technology is actually good enough to let non-programmers
Program these apps.”
Dave Lieb says up to half of YC startups primarily use AI
“I would say maybe like a third to a half of the companies would say that they pretty much primarily write code in this style.”
Dave Lieb says AI will improve software design by shrinking team sizes
“I think design of the products that we use, the quality of the products that we use is going to go way up because if you look at bad design or bad experiences that you encounter in your life, I think a lot of it comes from interfaces between people or between …”
Lieb Was Fired Twice From His Team While Pitching Google Photos
“In fact, twice I was a I got fired from the team and told to go find a new role at Google.”
Lieb: Musk said Twitter should make far-left and far-right equally unhappy
“I think Elon explicitly said, when you're using Twitter, you should feel equally bad if you're on the far left or on the far right.”
Lieb: Tying paid subscriptions to blue checkmarks destroyed identity verification
“That makes sense, and if they connect that to the blue check, though, they now overload this term, and now I don't know if it's just a twelve-year-old in his basement paying for Twitter premium, or an actual legit person that I should pay attention to.”
Lieb: Integrating Grok into X makes zero sense for normal users
“So this is basically ChatGPT inside of Twitter, which to me doesn't make a whole lot of sense, and I'm sure to any normal person makes zero sense.”
Dave Lieb says AI adoption in legal and finance will become default
“And I think we're now getting to the point in legal, in finance, and all these other areas where it's become a competitive disadvantage if you don't embrace it. So I think it will become default.”
Raising Too Much Capital Quickly Masked Bump's Core Business Problems
“We raised too much money too quickly because we could and it prevented us from realizing the real problems that we had in our business.”
Acquirers Saw No Value in Bump, Only the Unreleased Photo Roll
“No one wanted bump. It was not valuable, but this idea of photo roll and the demo that we had built was something that several companies indicated, you know, you might be right.”
Google Reassigned the Acquired Bump Team to Google+ on Day One
“Then we showed up. To Google on the first day and there had been a reorg and all of the plans that we had agreed upon with our sponsor were out the window and we were tasked to go work on Google plus the social network.”
Google Photos Reached One Billion Users in Under Four Years
“Google Photos grew to more than a billion users in less than four years, which I think is the fastest growing product of all time, at least at the time.”
Lieb: Twitter's biggest change is shifting to an engagement-based feed
“By far the biggest change that I have seen in Twitter over the last year or so is this shift from a, you know, chronological-ish feed of topics that you have expressed that you want to follow to now kind of like more of a TikTok feed of stuff that you might Be…”
Lieb: Engaging users with content they dislike damages long-term retention
“If I am highly engaged in content that ultimately I really don't like long-term retention will be poorer, right? And so eventually, even if your business model is ads and you're getting me to spend a bunch of time on the site, I'm gonna eventually stop using i…”
Lieb: News Feed was the single best product change Facebook ever made
“Probably the single biggest change that Facebook, the product ever made for the better was moving to this newsfeed where basically anytime someone would modulate their wall, it would show you the content that you had chosen to see.”
Lieb: TikTok skipped social graphs to rely purely on algorithmic discovery
“And TikTok, the most recent one I think just skipped straight to the end game. Which is like, let's just show all the possible content in the world and let the algorithms figure out what the human brain wants to see.”
Lieb: Building real human connection requires resisting engagement optimization
“If the product you're trying to build is like connection between real people, then probably you need to very explicitly like fight against this urge to just drive more engagement.”
Lieb: Twitter excels in breaking news due to direct first-party publishing
“I think it is that it is so easy for first party information owners to put content onto the platform. So like we saw, like during the assassination attempt, we saw a bunch of firsthand videos that The normal media organization would not have produced for us so…”
Lieb: A founder's job is clearly articulating product purpose and usage
“I think this is a great example of probably the job of a founder or product leader, which is to clearly articulate to the entire team and to the world What this product is for and how you're supposed to use it.”
Lieb: Tech shifts take years to move past legacy software paradigms
“When mobile came out, the first mobile apps, or a lot of the first mobile apps, were basically just websites wrapped in a native app wrapper, but they didn't take advantage of any of the new technologies available on the mobile phone, like GPS, like multi-touc…”
Bump Was the #2 App on the App Store by Demo Day
“Throughout the batch, the product kept growing, and by the time demo day came around in August, we were actually the number two app on the entire app store.”
Steve Jobs Featured Bump's Icon in an Apple Keynote Presentation
“Steve Jobs put our icon on a slide on one of his pitch decks.”
Bump Burned Up to $15 Million Before Pivoting to Photo Sharing
“We'd burned ten million dollars or more, probably, probably more, probably fifteen million dollars.”
Google Photos Was Built From Scratch in About Nine Months
“Once we got the green light you know, it was a team of, like, 20 of us from Bump latched on to maybe a team of, like, a hundred people, core people from Google with access to all of this incredible technology, and we were able to build all of Google Photos bas…”
Early DARPA Grand Challenge Work Spawned Modern Autonomous Vehicles
“Ended up working on what would be the beginning of the DARPA Grand Challenge, which would turn into the self-driving cars that we have today.”
Lieb Conceived Bump During an Accounting Class at Chicago Booth
“The idea that you could
Share contact information by taking two phones and bumping them together popped into my head in an accounting class one day.”
Bump Launched on the App Store in 2009 With Zero Promotion
“The app went live at the end of March, 2009, and we did no promotion. It just went on the App Store, and some people found it.”