why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Held up
Bromberg: Regulators Will Classify Almost All Token Sales as Securities
“I think that what will happen is that the regulators are going to say, these are almost all securities. You can't just sell these tokens to anyone on the public markets.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Bromberg: Startup liquidity timelines will revert to moving faster again
“Certainly in the last few years we've seen, ah, the speed to liquidity go down, ah, we think that's gonna revert back and we're gonna see that, that come faster again.”
Assertion Contradicted
Bromberg: ICOs raise $10M to $200M via SAFTs
“Token fundraising ICOs, mostly raised on what are called SAFTS, Simple Agreements for Future Tokens... Mostly raised from hedge funds, venture funds, institutions, and again, angels putting money into these ICOs. But they're raising 10 to two hundred million d…”
Assertion Supported
Bromberg: European ICOs have raised as much capital as US ICOs
“Right now, it is a very global phenomenon, so about as much money has been raised by ICOs based in Europe as based in the United States”
Prediction Held up
Bromberg: Crypto and Venture Capital Will See Much More Lobbying
“I think, especially given the attention given to regulation in the space, we will see way more lobbying happening in crypto and in venture capital over the coming years.”
Assertion Supported
Bromberg: ARDC returned 500x on DEC over 11 years
“ARDC really had what we consider to be the first venture win. So they invested in Digital Equipment Corporation and returned about 500 X in 11 years there.”
Assertion Supported
Bromberg: CRV launched at $5M and Kleiner Perkins at $7M in the 1970s
“In 1970, CRV was a five million dollar fund, and KP was a seven million dollar fund. Ah, those are smaller than most investments those funds make today in raw dollars, but that was the entire fund size at that point in the 19 seventies.”
Assertion Partly supported
Bromberg: VC had $12B AUM in 1996, but saw $120B invested in 2000
“In 1996, the venture industry as a whole had an AUM of about twelve billion dollars.
In the calendar year 2000, LPs put a hundred and twenty billion dollars into venture.”
Assertion Partly supported
Bromberg: Dot-com era VC funds commanded 30% to 40% carried interest
“Carry changed.
Funds were getting 30, sometimes even 40% carry on these deals, because there was liquid so quickly, and people couldn't put enough money into the space”
Assertion Supported
Bromberg: Between 2002 and 2009, VC returned just $220B on $205B invested
“2002 to 2009, it was about two hundred and five billion invested in venture and about two hundred and twenty billion returned”
Assertion Partly supported
Bromberg: Early-stage deals historically used only equity before convertible notes
“Historically, all of these deals had been done with just equity, straight equity, selling preferred stock.”
Assertion Contradicted
Bromberg: Startup seed rounds crested $1M for the first time around 2010
“In 2010 after the recession more angels, more seed funds investing smaller and smaller amounts. At the same time, we saw seed rounds crest a million dollars for the first time”
Assertion Supported
Bromberg: 1980s VC funds exploded from a few dozen to over 650
“There were a few
Dozen funds in the early eighties.
There were more than 650 at the end of the eighties.”