The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Partly supported
Nadella: Microsoft achieved physics breakthrough to fabricate Majorana quantum chip
“Finally we've had a physics breakthrough, and we were able to actually fabricate that particle, and so therefore that's what has led to this chip.”
Satya Nadella Jun 25, 2025 ▶ 37:18 Satya Nadella: Microsoft's AI Bets, Hyperscaling, Quantum Computing Breakthroughs · Y Combinator
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Preskill: Validated topological qubit may appear as soon as 2019
“And it's very ambitious, because at this point, it's not even clear they have a single qubit, but if that approach is successful, and we're, it's making progress, so I think we will see a validated Qubit of this type soon, maybe next year.”
John Preskill May 16, 2018 ▶ 28:45 John Preskill on Quantum Computing · Y Combinator
Assertion Supported
Nadella: World Bank study found AI copilots are top education tech intervention
“By the way, one of the other ones, since you brought it up, there was a World Bank study they did, I think in Nigeria, and now they've taken it to Peru or Chile, one of those in South America. It's, you know, we've been working at Microsoft forever on can ther…”
Satya Nadella Jun 25, 2025 ▶ 26:23 Satya Nadella: Microsoft's AI Bets, Hyperscaling, Quantum Computing Breakthroughs · Y Combinator
Assertion Supported
Gil: Microsoft essentially bootstrapped via customer fees until its pre-IPO round
“Microsoft actually used to do this in the early days and they similarly never had to raise funding. They took one round right before they went public because of a relationship, but fundamentally they just bootstrapped.”
Elad Gil Jul 27, 2018 ▶ 32:54 Elad Gil Shares Advice from the High Growth Handbook, a Guide to Scaling Startups · Y Combinator
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