The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2031
Wang: AI tools will increase businesses on Meta to billions
“There's two hundred million businesses that are on Metis platforms today. We think that number should go to billions with this explosion of creativity and using AI tools”
Alexandr Wang Jul 29, 2026 ▶ 12:46 Alexandr Wang: “This is a Once-in-a-Civilization Opportunity” · Y Combinator
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2060
Sloan predicts Facebook updates and Instagram photos will be gone by 2050
“I would not bet against everything that we're pouring into kind of the vast digital box, you know, like everything, the Facebook updates, the Instagram photos, all of it basically being gone in 2060, 20, 50. Like, I hope that's not the case, and I mean, it see…”
Robin Sloan Nov 29, 2017 ▶ 28:43 Microbes, Robots, and Ambition - Robin Sloan on His Novel Sourdough · Y Combinator
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Feb 2022
Caldwell: Facebook took years to build a unified global users table
“It actually took them years to build a global users table, as I recall and avoid this hack.”
Dalton Caldwell Feb 16, 2022 ▶ 9:33 Things That Don't Scale, The Software Edition – Dalton Caldwell and Michael Seibel · Y Combinator
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