The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

2statements match

2resolved → 0open claims → 2supported → 0contradicted →

why aren't all 2 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported

Chollet: Base LLMs Score Under 10% on ARC-AGI-1

“So basal alarms were scoring extremely low on V-one, like sub-ten percent, basically. And, I mean, it was true of the original, like, GPT-III actually scoring zero, but that's even true of the latest basal alarms today, you know, as of March.”

François Chollet Mar 27, 2026 ▶ 17:57 François Chollet: Why Scaling Alone Isn’t Enough for AGI · Y Combinator

Assertion Supported

Hu: Anthropic Opus 5 achieved 30% on ARC-AGI

“You guys got, took Arc AGI three to 30%, which is incredible.”

Diana Hu Jul 27, 2026 ▶ 0:33 Boris Cherny: We Cut 80% of Claude Code’s Prompt · Y Combinator

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The Ledger

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