Disclosure
Ng: AI Fund builds an average of one startup per month
“AI Fund's a venture studio, and we build an average of about one startup per month”
Insight
Ng: The biggest AI economic opportunities must be at the application layer
“And even though a lot of the PR excitement and hype has been on these technology layers, it turns out that almost by definition, the biggest opportunities have to be at the application layer. Because we actually need the applications to generate even more reve…”
Opinion
Ng: Agentic AI is the most important technology trend in artificial intelligence
“And in terms of AI tech trends, if you ask me what's the most important tech trend in AI, I would say Is the rise of agentic AI.”
Insight
Ng: Agentic workflows determine whether AI applications work or fail
“So for a lot of the projects that AI fund has worked on, everything from pulling out complex compliance documents, to medical diagnosis, to reasoning about complex legal documents, we found that these agentic workflows are really a huge difference between work…”
Insight
Ng: Subject matter expert intuition beats slow data for startup decisions
“Getting data for a lot of startups is a slow mechanism for making decisions. And a subject matter expert with a good gut is often a much better mechanism for making a speedy decision.”
Insight
Ng: Over-pivoting on customer feedback reveals a lack of domain knowledge
“If every time you talk to a customer, you totally change your mind, probably means you don't know enough about that sector yet to have a really high quality concrete idea”
Insight
Ng: AI coding makes prototyping 10x faster, production only 50% faster
“When writing production quality code, maybe we're at 30 to 50% faster with AI systems. Hard to find a rigorous number. Maybe. Be as plausible to me. But in terms of building quick and dirty prototypes, we're not 50% faster. I think we're easily 10 times faster…”
Disclosure
Ng: Engineering teams should write insecure code for local prototypes
“I routinely go to my teams and say, go ahead, write insecure code, because if this software is only going to run on your laptop, and if you don't plan to maliciously hack your own laptop, It's fine to have insecure code, right? But of course, after it seems to…”
Insight
Ng: Falling behind on AI tools causes a severe productivity gap
“And the interesting thing is, if you're even half a generation or one generation behind, it actually makes a big difference compared to if you're on top of the latest tools.”
Insight
Ng: Code itself is becoming much less valuable as engineering costs drop
“One surprising thing is, we're used to thinking of code as this really valuable artifact because it's so hard to create, but because the cost of software engineering is going down, code is much less of a valuable artifact as it used to.”
Disclosure
Ng's teams rebuilt a codebase three times in one month using AI
“So I'm on teams where, you know, we've completely rebuilt the code base three times in the last month, right? Because it's not that hard anymore to just completely rebuild the code base, pick a new data schemer, it's fine, because the cost of doing that has pl…”
Insight
Ng: AI turns software architecture decisions into reversible two-way doors
“So choosing the software architecture of your tech stack used to be a one-way door. Once you're built on top of a certain tech stack, you know, set a database schema, really hard to change it. So that used to be a one-way door. I don't want to say it's totally…”
Opinion
Ng: Advising people not to learn to code is terrible career advice
“Over the last year, a bunch of people have advised others not to learn to code on the ground so AI will automate it. I think we'll look back on this as some of the worst career advice ever given, because as better tools make software engineering easier, more p…”
Opinion
Ng: Employees across every job role should learn how to code
“I have a controversial opinion, which is, ah, I think it's time for everyone of every job role to learn to code, and in fact, on my team, you know, my CFO, my head of talent, my recruiters, my front desk person, all of them know how to code, and I actually see…”
Insight
Ng: Product management is becoming the software bottleneck as engineering accelerates
“With software engineering becoming much faster, the other interesting dynamic I'm seeing is that the product management work, getting user feedback, deciding what features to build, that is increasingly the bottleneck.”
Disclosure
Ng: One project team proposed staffing twice as many PMs as engineers
“So literally yesterday, one of my teams came to me, and for the first time, when we're planning a head comfort project, this team proposed to me not to have one PM to four engineers, but to have one PM to 0.5 engineers. So the team actually proposed to me. I s…”
Insight
Ng: A/B testing is now one of the slowest product feedback tactics
“And I know Silicon Valley, you know, we like to talk about A-B testing. Of course, I do a ton of A-B testing, but contrary to what many people think, A-B testing is now one of the slowest tactics in my menu, because it's just slow to ship it.”
Insight
Ng: Use A/B testing to hone gut instincts, not just pick variants
“I don't just use the result of A-B test to pick product A or product B. My team will often sit down and look carefully at the data to hone our instincts, to speed up, to improve the rate at which we're able to use the first tactic to make high quality decision…”
Insight
Ng: Bad AI architecture decisions slow startups down by 10x, not 2x
“It feels like one bit of information can at most buy you a two-way speed up. And I think in some theoretical sense, that is true. But what I see in practice, if you flip the wrong bit, you're not twice as slow. You spend like 10 times longer chasing a blind al…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ng: AGI is overhyped; humans will outperform AI for a long time
“I feel like AGI has been overhyped.
And so for a long time, there'll be a lot of things that humans can do that AI cannot.”
Opinion
Ng: AI existential risk claims are ridiculous hype used to aid fundraising
“This idea that AI is so powerful, we might accidentally lead to human extinction. That's just ridiculous, but it is a hype narrative that made certain businesses look more powerful, and it got Yeah, ramped up and actually help certain businesses fundraising go…”
Opinion
Ng: New foundation models will not casually wipe out thousands of startups
“We're so powerful that by training a new model, we will casually wipe out thousands of startups. That's just not true. Yes, Jasper ran into trouble, small number of companies got wiped out, but it's not that easy to casually wipe out Thousands of startups.”
Opinion
Ng: AI compute does not exclusively require nuclear power
“AI needs so much electricity, only nuclear power is good enough for that. You know, that wind, solar stuff, not, this is not true.”
Insight
Ng: AI safety is a function of the application, not the technology
“Safety is not a function of technology. It's a function of how we apply it. So like electric motor, you know, You can't, the maker of electric motor can't guarantee that no one will ever use it for an unsafe downstream task. Like using electric, electric motor…”
Opinion
Ng: Sensationalized AI danger hype is being weaponized against open-source software
“And I feel like this has been used as a weapon against open source software as well, right? Which is really unfortunate.”
Insight
Ng: Startup moats are overhyped and evolve after launching a loved product
“I find that moats tend to be overhyped, actually. I find that more businesses tend to start up with a product and then evolve eventually into a moat.”
Opinion
Ng: AI application opportunities far exceed the number of skilled builders
“The number of opportunities, meaning the amount of stuff that is possible that no one's built yet in the world, seems much greater than the number of people with the skill to build them. So definitely at the application layer, it feels like there's a lot of wh…”
Insight
Ng: Early-stage startups should not worry about API token costs
“My most common advice to developers is to first approximation. Just don't worry about how much tokens cost. Only a small number of startups are lucky enough to have users use so much of your product that the cost of tokens becomes a problem.”
Insight
Ng: Switching foundation models has lower friction than switching orchestration platforms
“So it turns out that switching costs for foundation models is relatively low, and we often architect our software. Oh, AI Suite is open sourcing that my friends and I worked on. So it makes switching easier. Switching costs for the orchestration platforms is a…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ng: Tech will spend a decade mapping work to agentic workflows
“And for the next decade, we'll be looking at the work that needs to be done and figuring out how to map it to agentic workflows.”
Disclosure
Ng: AI Fund has killed economically viable projects on ethical grounds
“But AI Fund, we've killed multiple projects, not on financial grounds, but on ethical grounds where there are multiple projects. We looked at the economic case is very solid, but we said, you know what, we don't want this to exist in the world, and we just kil…”
Opinion
Ng: California's SB 1047 would have harmed open-source AI without improving safety
“So I think typing up dangers, supposed false dangers of AI, in order to get regulators to pass laws, like the proposed SB-SB-Ten-Forty-Seven in California, which, thank goodness, we shut down, Would have put in place really burdensome regulatory requirements t…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ng: AI companies have made untrue statements to regulators behind closed doors
“I've been in the room where some of these businesses said stuff to regulators that was just not true.”