why aren't all 29 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Contradicted
Deshpande: TikTok's Chinese sister app Douyin accounts for 40% of retail
“Doyen, which is TikTok, is 40% of retail.”
Insight
Deshpande: AI cannot yet help businesses frame and evolve strategic problems
“I don't think AI can help you frame problems, yet. Like a business needs to know how to frame the problem, and evolve, evolve the framing of the problem constantly.”
Insight
Deshpande: Profitable beauty brands jump from revenue multiples to 40x EBITDA
“In beauty personal care, there is a, there is the moment of transition is when you become profitable. When you start going from four times revenue, five times revenue to 40 times forward EBITDA.”
Opinion
Deshpande: Unilever is struggling to premiumize its mass-heavy brand portfolio
“Unilever is struggling to premiumize. All of the brands, Dove, Ponds, Fair and Lovely, everything is mass.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Deshpande: Sustainability will differentiate brands for young Indian consumers
“India for sure, young consumers, urban, young, affluent consumers will care. It'll be a differentiator.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Deshpande: Only 3% of India's 300 million shavers buy premium blades
“There are 30 crore shavers in the country. 30 crore, three hundred million people who shave. 15 crore of them use one rupee blades. 15 crore, half the market use one rupee blades. Seven to eight crore people go to barbershops. Five crore people use disposable …”
Insight
Deshpande: Indian consumer brands can now reach 500 crore scale mostly online
“Today that number is now 500, you can build a good 500 crore business, 80% online, and some amount in modern trade, and still do well. Like we are 500 crores.”
Opinion
Deshpande: Tier-2 city elites often have higher disposable income than metro elites
“So tier two India, if you in fact look at the top five percent households in a Ludhiana or a Nasik or a Coimbatore, will probably have much higher disposable income than the top five percent in a, let's say, Pune or an Ahmedabad. Because the cost of living is …”
Insight
Deshpande: Men are hard to engage but easy to please; women reverse
“Men are hard to engage, easy to please. Women are easy to engage, hard to please. The fundamental difference in consumption.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bombay Shaving Company claims 15% of India trimmer market
“So we have 15% market share in trimmers all India. We sell 7000 trimmers a day. 7000 trimmers a day all India. Yeah. At a thousand rupee price point.”
Opinion
Deshpande: Building a meaningful company in India takes 15 to 20 years
“India is a country where you need 1520 years to find something meaningful.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Deshpande: Top management consulting teams cost ₹2+ crore per month
“Couple of crores a month for a good team.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Deshpande: Mosquito Repellent Drove ₹3 Crore of Mamaearth's ₹5 Crore Monthly Revenue
“So, Mama Arath was doing four or five crores a month, and they were doing three crores of mosquito repellent.”
Assertion Partly supported
Deshpande: Hair care is $7B–$8B in India, mostly hair oils
“Hair care is seven to eight billion. Of which majority is oil by the way.”
Assertion Supported
Deshpande: Indian skincare market is $6 billion including mass brands
“Skincare is six billion, which includes, by the way, Dove, Ponds, everything.”
Assertion Supported
Shantanu Deshpande: The fragrance industry is shifting towards unisex products
“Then the world is moving towards unisex, by the way.”
Opinion
Shantanu Deshpande: Gen Z skincare consumers are turning into 'Skinimalists'
“I think the Gen Z younger consumers are actually, what we are now starting to realize are Skinimalists.
Just give me what I need.
Don't give me extra.”
Opinion
Shantanu Deshpande: Stress-relief skincare and magnesium roll-ons have exploded among Gen Z
“Another big trend in, in, in Gen Z, I think is also around stress management.
So skincare, like skinification of hair, for example, or skincare that helps you sleep better is hugely like magnesium roll-ons are like exploded.
Helps you sleep better.”
Opinion
Deshpande: HRX succeeded through founder involvement and Myntra distribution
“I think HRX did a very good job because I think Hrithik was involved. I think the product was good. I think the distribution with Myntra was outstanding. They did such a good job with that.”
Assertion Partly supported
Deshpande: 70% of Colgate India's business comes from 10-12 rupee packs
“Look at Colgate. It's a 6000 crore company. 50% market share. The most successful penetration brand possible. 70% of the business comes from 10 to 12 rupee toothpaste.”
Assertion Contradicted
Bombay Shaving Company reaches 500 crore INR net revenue profitably
“And today we are now 500 crores net. Profitable. EBITDA and PAT both.”
Assertion Partly supported
Deshpande: Minimalist reached 480 crore revenue and a 3,000 crore valuation
“There were four 80 crores top line, 3000 crores net value.”
Assertion Supported
Deshpande: Minimalist Founders Originally Started a Custom Shampoo Business
“Minimalist's first brand was, these guys said, you tell me all the ingredients you want and all the stuff you want done, and we'll put it together and give you a personalized shampoo or a personalized body.”
Disclosure
Deshpande: Bombay Shaving Company achieved 5% organic post rate on 10,000+ PR kits
“Till date we've probably sent, 10 to 12,000, pre-samplers, to micro-influencers, macro-influencers, creators, and then cricketers, actors, television, etc. We've probably had 500 organic, 500 organic, yeah. Five percent.”
Assertion Partly supported
Deshpande: Paper Boat built its brand sampling on IndiGo flights
“The second one was Paper Boat in Indigo Airlines. Paper Boat was built as a brand, again, nostalgic taste, by distributing our samples on Indigo Airlines, and then it became something a part of the menu, and then.”
Assertion Supported
Deshpande: Bajaj is the largest motorcycle seller in Africa
“We're the largest motorcycle seller in Africa. Bajaj has beaten Chinese motorcycle players.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Bombay Shaving Company will exceed 2020-2021 annual revenue in EBITDA this year
“So we will do more EBITDA this year than the revenue in”
Assertion Supported
Deshpande: Indian law mandates listing contract manufacturers on packaging
“The good part about India is because all the contract manufacturing is written on the back of pack.”
Assertion Partly supported
Deshpande: Fogg built a 1,000 crore business on product longevity
“And Fogg is a thousand crore business built off of great marketing and a product that lasts long.”