The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Dalio predicts central banks are unlikely to hold Bitcoin as reserve wealth
“Bitcoin is limited in supply, and its perception of money, it is a form of money, it, it's perceived as money, as a storehold of wealth, that is unlikely to be significantly held by central banks, and many others, because of a number of Problems it has.”
Dalio: India has the best fundamentals for highest 10-year economic growth
“India is going to have probably the, has the best fundamentals to have the best growth rate in that, because you're going from not having enough money to having, that has infrastructure.”
Dalio: US stock wealth-to-money ratio matches 1929 and 2000 bubble peaks
“What's the money ratio right now in the United States is about eight and a half to one, and so on, and when you look at it and then also then there's what it's in. The stock market is, is right now about three to one, and that's very high. If you were to go ba…”
Dalio: Gold historically yields approximately a 1.2% annualized real return
“Gold is over a period of time, a low returning asset class like cash. It'll produce, it has produced, and for logical reasons, it produces about a 1.2% a year Real return.”
Dalio predicts investors will use prediction markets to hedge equity portfolios
“Mostly different act events to bet on. And I think events affect companies, but they're two different things. So I would say it'll be something to speculate on. But, and it'd be something that smart people may use as a hedging device against owning an equity. …”
Dalio: Natural disasters and pandemics have killed more people than wars
“Droughts, floods, and pandemics have killed more people than wars and changed more orders.”
Dalio's first stock investment tripled after near-bankrupt company was acquired
“The first stock I bought I bought only because it was the only company I ever heard of that was selling for less than five dollars a share. And I thought, well, then I can buy more shares. So if it goes up, I'll make more money, which of course made no sense. …”