why aren't all 416 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Alagh: Johnson & Johnson Faced US Boycotts Over Cancer-Causing Talc
“And because I had lived in New York, I knew back in New York, there was this whole movement around J&J going on where the talc had some cancer causing ingredients in them and they were being taken off the shelves.”
Assertion Supported
Alagh: Harmful baby skincare ingredients banned abroad were widely used in India
“Those ingredients were banned in a few countries to be used on a baby's skin, which were being widely used in India.”
Assertion Supported
India Averages One Extreme Weather Event Per Day According to Data
“So we do something called extreme weather database. And we put together all the extreme weather events as defined by IMD and then produce a report at the end of each year. It's one extreme weather event a day, as defined by IMD.”
Assertion Supported
Dubash: Solar power costs 2 rupees per unit, 4 with storage
“So for solar, the lowest you can get these days is around two rupees. Right. Now it gets complicated because they're starting to say, well, what about solar and storage? So solar and storage ends up being around four rupees, but it's not enough storage to come…”
Assertion Supported
Current Global Climate Policies Put Earth on Track for 2.6°C Warming
“Right now we're on track for somewhere around 2.6.”
Assertion Supported
Narain: Michelin and Danone claim credits through tree-planting offsets
“So if you look at the offset programs, if you look at the analysis we did, so Michelin Danone, a lot of the companies that are claiming carbon credits are claiming it on the basis of the trees that they have bought the offsets from, the carbon credits from.”
Prediction Held up
Gogri: Gen-IV Small Modular Reactors Should Come Online by 2030
“Ok, so the point is that my hope is around this generation four reactors, which, again, there is a hope element to that, but they should be getting online by the end of this decade, and they are more smaller than the big power plant.”
Assertion Supported
Ozone-Depleting Chemical Substitutes Turned Out to Have Massive Global Warming Potential
“Yes, the ozone layer has repaired itself to a large extent, but the technology, the chemical which has come after all these variations is now being understood to have major impact on climate change.”
Assertion Supported
IPCC 1.5°C Climate Models Mathematically Require Unproven Carbon Dioxide Removal Tech
“One, when the IPCC runs these models, and we say politically we want to try and keep to a world of 1.5 warming, the models don't close. You can't do it without a whole bunch of assumptions around carbon dioxide removal.”
Assertion Supported
Mehta: Electric scooters emit 40% less than petrol scooters on current grid
“In scooters at least, our math was, it is. It is 40% less emission than a petrol scooter. You're at least reducing emission to 40%. Even if the grid does not become greener at all.”
Assertion Supported
Maini: Indian government removed subsidies and doubled EV taxes before Reva launch
“One month after we launched, the government pulled the plug on subsidies, and actually one month before we launched, and doubled the taxation on electric vehicles... And reduced taxes on petrol vehicles.”
Assertion Supported
50% of electric trucks in China used swappable batteries in 2023
“This year, 50% of all electric trucks in China were with swappable batteries, right? That target was supposed to be achieved in 27.”
Prediction Held up
EV battery cell production in India will begin within 24 months
“I think in the next 24 months, cells will start being produced in India, right? And maybe in 48 months, we'll have a very small chunk.”
Assertion Supported
Tarun Mehta: Ather operates India's largest two-wheeler fast-charging network
“Actually in two wheelers, it's the largest fast charging network in the country.”
Assertion Supported
Maini: India's 18% battery GST versus 5% EV GST penalizes EV manufacturers
“Electric vehicles at five percent GST, but a battery pack, right? Batteries are at 18%, right? So it's also hard, A, for a lot of companies only making electric vehicles where they'll have an inverted duty structure, because the input will over time be more th…”
Prediction Held up
Bhat: YouTube will natively integrate AI lip-synced audio dubbing
“It's going to get built in on YouTube, Nikhil. There's going to be a button where you can select a language and your mouth will move in that language. It's going to come into YouTube. It's going to take forever because YouTube is a slightly slower moving beast…”
Assertion Supported
Palicha: Zepto reached over 5,000 crore INR sales in 24 months
“And yeah, from July, 21 to today, like about 24 months, went from about zero to like today north of 5000 crores in sales.”
Assertion Supported
Sivanandan: 80 to 90 million Indians have paid for streaming subscriptions
“The size of the number of people who've, ah, who've paid subscription at least once, at any given point in time, is anywhere between 80 to ninety million people.”
Prediction Held up
Mazumdar-Shaw: CRISPR gene-editing stocks will recover and yield strong returns
“No, but it will recover because now is the time. CRISPR is going to, you know, suddenly come away.”
Assertion Supported
Kotak: Top HBS career targets shifted from finance to tech and entrepreneurship
“I graduated six years ago, and it had already started to change... Entrepreneurship software product management.”
Assertion Supported
Mayya: Stable Diffusion reproduction rate of training data is 1%
“And the reproduction rate for something like stable diffusion is one percent.”
Assertion Supported
Bedi: 98% of Saudi Arabia's population is on TikTok
“It is insane. It's 98% of the population is on TikTok.”
Assertion Supported
Magow: MakeMyTrip holds about 30% share of Indian domestic flights
“Like for our total market share for domestic air segments will be about 30%. And they might be single digit, high single digit.”
Assertion Supported
Chhatwal: Thailand's consumption taxes are far lower than India's GST
“So, specific to Thailand, they are far lower in, you know, in the GST equivalent of their country.”
Assertion Supported
Damani: No five-star hotels exist in the Bhimtal and Mukteshwar belt
“Ah, if you look at the entire Bheemtal belt and Mukteswar, you will not find any five-star hotel in that area.”
Assertion Supported
Tang: Modern LFP EVs can reach up to 1,000 km in range
“So the RFP can, you can drive a RFP driving car to up to 101,000 kilometers long range.”
Assertion Supported
Klein: China's industrial production recovered from COVID far faster than domestic consumption
“The productive side of the economy in terms of, you know, the factories being able to produce more and sell things recovered from COVID faster and better than the domestic Demand consuming side. Part of that reflects, as the name was saying, the consequences o…”
Assertion Supported
Zhu: US dollar took nearly a century to replace pound sterling
“The U S economy surpassed that of UK in around the But then U.S. Dollar did not totally replace starting until like almost a hundred years later. So it's a very long and gradual process and full of changes, apps announced.”
Assertion Supported
Ning Zhu: Land Sales Are Biggest Revenue Source for Chinese Local Governments
“Land sales have become the biggest contribution to fiscal revenues to many local governments in China.”
Assertion Supported
Armstrong: Four billion people globally are unbrokered without equity access
“So there's something like four billion people in the world today who are unbrokered. They don't have any ability to buy equities.”
Assertion Supported
Armstrong: Proof-of-stake blockchains are 99.9% more energy efficient than proof-of-work
“Ethereum and other blockchains use a new system called proof of stake, which is actually 99.9% more energy efficient.”
Assertion Supported
Armstrong: Bitcoin ETFs Were Fastest-Growing ETFs in Recent Years
“You might be aware that recently they've become Bitcoin ETFs as well, which have become very popular. I think they were like the fastest growing ETFs of the last few years.”
Assertion Supported
Armstrong: India ranks number one globally by crypto user count
“Actually by most reports, India, believe it or not, is the number one crypto country in the world by a number of people who use it.”
Assertion Supported
Armstrong: Base is the most popular Layer 2 on Ethereum
“It's the most popular layer two on top of Ethereum now, and it's, people are using it for all kinds of apps to be built, and payment stable coins, and trading, and AI agents, like agentic commerce is happening on there.”
Assertion Supported
Biyani Estimates India's Affluent Consumer Segment at 30 Million Families
“I would say around, around thirty million families.”
Assertion Supported
Juneja: Indian pharmaceutical companies manufacture up to 50% of US medications
“That 40, 50% price that you buy over there are manufactured here. Indian companies.”
Assertion Supported
Prasad: US drug prices drop over 95% post-patent with five competitors
“So in the U.S., the innovator price, if it's a hundred, post-patent expiry, if there are more than five players, the price falls to north of, the discount falls north of 95%.
It can be sometimes one percent, two percent of the innovator's price.”
Assertion Supported
Kamath: India's fertility rate has dropped below replacement level in most states
“Soon, if we don't have kids, I think that fertility ratio has dropped below 2.1, which is the replenishment ratio. In most states, outside of Bihar and UP or something, people are not having two kids.”
Assertion Supported
Escobari: US Policy Uncertainty Index Is at All-Time High
“There's another index which I look a lot, which is the policy uncertainty index. What's the level of uncertainty of the rules of the game? The US is at an all time high.”
Assertion Supported
Escobari: Half of US unicorn founders are foreign-born
“Half the unicorn founders are foreign born, but choose this country, because in this country, they believe they can be successful.”
Assertion Supported
Banga: HDFC originally started with an IFC investment
“Most people don't know, but HDFC originally started with an IFC investment.”
Assertion Supported
Banga: World Bank mobilized nearly $70B in private capital last year
“Last year we mobilized, Seventy billion almost private capital. Up from say, 40,000,000,002, three years ago.”
Assertion Supported
Banga: World Bank is profitable and funds its own administrative expenses
“We're basically profitable across the institution. The part of the bank that doesn't, we don't need capital injections every year or three years. We don't need money for our administrative expenses every year or three years.”
Assertion Supported
Banga: 85% to 90% of Global Jobs Are Private Sector Created
“85 to 90% of jobs in the world are created in some form or the other in the private sector or in private sector-oriented enterprises in the state-owned sector.”
Assertion Supported
Banga: 600 million people in Africa have zero electricity
“Six hundred million people in Africa don't have electricity today. And I don't mean, ah, inadequate electricity. None. Black. No electricity.”
Assertion Supported
Sunak: China's trade surplus is at record high relative to global GDP
“Chinese exports though, and the Chinese trade surplus is a record high as a percentage of global GDP. So all those exports are going to all these other countries. So I think there'll be increasing tension with these other countries.”
Assertion Supported
Sunak: Stanford research shows financial illiteracy widens wealth inequality
“The research from Stanford actually tells us some of these foundational skills you need to understand are inflation and compounding. They are two fundamental things that lots of people do not understand. And if they don't, that inequality will widen.”
Assertion Supported
Staniszewski: MasterClass uses ElevenLabs for interactive Gordon Ramsay AI
“Masterclass works with us where they would recreate and work with people like Gordon Ramsey to create AI. Gordon Ramsey teaches you how to cook while you cook. The top FBI negotiator, Chris Voss, it's part of the ecosystem. You can negotiate and learn negotiat…”