Dec 10, 2023 · 3h 8m · wtf
Ep# 14 | WTF is Happening with EV? Nikhil ft. Founders of Reva, Ather, Blusmart, and Ossus · Nikhil Kamath
Chetan Maini · 50m spoken Tarun Mehta · 38m spoken Puneet Goyal · 26m spoken Nikhil Kamath · 25m spoken Suruchi Rao · 20m spoken
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
Host Nikhil Kamath convenes clean mobility and clean-tech founders to critically assess the technological, economic, and policy landscape of India's electric vehicle ecosystem. The roundtable explores battery engineering, infrastructure debates, fleet unit economics, and emerging entrepreneurial opportunities.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Nikhil holds 15.8% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Nikhil as informed peer 3.5 Guest teaching 3.5 Guest disagreement 1.6 Nikhil pushing back 2.9
speaking balance: gold is Nikhil, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 1:31:00 Tarun rejects consumer battery swapping model
Tarun forcefully outlines consumer behavioral friction, rejecting the premise that retail personal vehicle owners would accept manual battery swaps and variable battery degradation.
Hardest push from Nikhil ▶ 2:41:30 Nikhil challenges margin viability post-subsidy cutsNikhil aggressively presses Tarun on how manufacturing margins can possibly survive when state subsidies dropped from 60k to 20k without corresponding commodity price drops.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 34:25 Panel corrects host on national renewable generation mixPuneet and Tarun systematically correct Nikhil's misinformed assertion of a 5% renewable energy mix, citing grid capacity and ministry data showing 25%.
Nikhil holds their own ▶ 2:38:30 Nikhil systematically deconstructs e-scooter cost structureNikhil pushes past generalities to force an exact component-by-component financial breakdown of chassis, motor controller, and battery pack percentages.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Nikhil as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Nikhil pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puneet Goyal's Journey from Solar Energy to EV Fleet Pioneer | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | Puneet Goyal recounts his background and early solar ventures. Nikhil engages in light banter and probes basic financial numbers without challenging domain details. | |
| BluSmart's Integrated Infrastructure and EV Fleet Economics | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | Nikhil drills into the capex breakdown, DFI leasing structure, and battery depreciation schedules of BluSmart's fleet. Puneet explains the economics and clarifies battery lifecycle estimates. | |
| Suruchi Rao on Biotech, Climate Realities, and Energy Transition | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | A debate unfolds on grid emissions and renewable mix percentages in India, with guests correcting Nikhil's low 5% estimate with official data showing around 25%. | |
| Ossus Biorenewables: Transforming Wastewater into Green Hydrogen | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | Suruchi explains biological green hydrogen production from industrial wastewater, detailing exact per-kilo production and compression costs compared to conventional water electrolysis. | |
| Chetan Maini and the Genesis of Indian Electric Mobility | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Chetan Maini details the founding history of Reva, early government policy shifts, and the technological evolution of Indian electric vehicles. | |
| Sun Mobility's Battery-as-a-Service Revolution | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | Chetan explains Sun Mobility's Battery-as-a-Service model for commercial two and three-wheelers, outlining capex reduction and payback economics. | |
| The Great Debate: Battery Swapping Versus Fixed Charging | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | A constructive clash between Tarun's fixed charging stance and Chetan's swapping model, exploring consumer psychology versus commercial fleet logistics. | |
| Tarun Mehta and Building Ather Energy's Ecosystem | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | Tarun recounts Ather Energy's origins and explains why dealership network expansion is no longer a sustainable long-term competitive moat in India. | |
| Battery Chemistry and Cell Manufacturing Dynamics | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | Chetan and Tarun educate Nikhil on electrochemical cell principles, cathode chemistries (NMC vs LFP), and cell manufacturing margins. | |
| Battery Pack Engineering, Thermal Management, and Degradation | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | Tarun explains the intricate engineering behind pack assembly, weld tolerances, phase-change materials, and thermal degradation in hot climates. | |
| Mineral Geopolitics and Opportunities in Battery Recycling | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | The panel discusses critical mineral geopolitics and identifies domestic closed-loop battery recycling as a guaranteed high-margin business opportunity. | |
| Electric Scooter Engineering, Cost Breakdown, and Policy Roadblocks | 5 | 4 | 2 | 5 | Nikhil presses Tarun to break down the bill of materials for Ather scooters and questions how OEM unit economics survive drastic subsidy slashes. | |
| Policy Anomalies, GST Inversions, and EV Fleet Unit Economics | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | Chetan highlights tax policy anomalies like inverted GST rates on battery packs vs completed vehicles. Puneet breaks down BluSmart driver earnings and daily unit economics. | |
| The Macro EV Inflection and Future of Carbon Taxation in India | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | The panel discusses macroeconomic EV transition triggers and how carbon taxation frameworks might be implemented in developing countries. | |
| Entrepreneurial Opportunities in EV and Episode Charity Pledge | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | Each guest shares startup advice for aspiring EV entrepreneurs, followed by monetary pledge commitments to fund a budding hardware founder. |
Statements from this episode (61)
Puneet Goyal sold a 20MW Gujarat solar plant for $68 million
“We signed a 40 megawatt power purchase agreement with the government of Gujarat, and we set up a 20 megawatt power plant. So we built that project, operated for two years, and then sold it to a large Saudi company that was looking to buy an operating asset in …”
Puneet Goyal sold PLG Clean Energy Projects to Suzlon for $55M
“My third venture was another solar project founded PLG Cleanerji projects. We did a small 70 megaw solar power plant in Dhulen, Maastra. Again, Anmol's company, Jensol, played a part there in getting up that power plant also... Sold that to a large listed enti…”
BluSmart operates a fleet of over 5,000 Tata electric cars
“BlueSmart, we have a fleet of 5000 plus Tata decor cars.”
EV chassis last 8-10 years, but batteries need replacing after four
“The body is built to last for eight to 10 years. The body is, is built to last for eight to 10 years. The battery needs to be changed after four years.”
Setting up a 1-megawatt solar plant costs 3 to 3.25 crore
“A megawatt plant investment could be in the range of three to 3.25 crores.”
Goyal: BluSmart runs at ~440 crore INR ARR and 1.3-1.4 crore daily revenue
“So we are nearly 400 and 40 crores around ARR. We're doing a revenue of close to 1.3 to 1.4 crores per day revenue.”
Goyal: BluSmart ride-hailing does ~450 crore ARR, in-house charging 100 crore ARR
“The ride healing revenue is about nearly 444 50 crores per ARR. The charging revenue is about a hundred crores ARR today, but that's in-house.”
Goyal: BluSmart has secured vehicle financing for 20,000 EVs
“So we have secured financing for 20,000 cars as of now, right? Trying to secure financing for 40,000 cars.”
BluSmart's charging infrastructure is profitable due to its in-house anchor fleet
“Yeah, so the charging infra is today profitable, because we had the in-house anchor tenant, so that was profitable.”
Goyal: BluSmart adds 400-500 cars monthly, constrained by charging infra
“So, so, so we can probably add 1002 thousand cars a month. But we are not able to do that. We are only able to add 400 cars to 500 cars a month.”
Goyal: India's installed renewable capacity is about 175 GW
“Today, total installed capacity is about one 75 gigawatts in India.”
EVs reduce emissions even on a 100% coal-based electricity grid
“Even if it was a hundred percent coal based, it will still make sense.”
Maini: EVs are around three times more efficient than ICE vehicles
“An internal combustion engine vehicle is an efficiency of around 25%. An electric machine is around 90%, probably in drive cycles around 85. So you're talking of around three times efficient.”
Mehta: Electric scooters emit 40% less than petrol scooters on current grid
“In scooters at least, our math was, it is. It is 40% less emission than a petrol scooter. You're at least reducing emission to 40%. Even if the grid does not become greener at all.”
Electric three-wheeler sales in India will reach 100% by 2030
“We're estimating, you know, two-wheelers maybe 50 to 70% by twenty-thirty. Cars maybe 30%. Three-wheelers maybe a hundred percent by twenty-thirty.”
Goyal: India's annual oil import bill doubled to $120B in five years
“The numbers doubled. It was sixty billion dollars in 2018. Yeah. When we were writing the white paper for BlueSmart. Now that number is hundred and twenty billion dollars.”
Rao: Ossus Biorenewables secured Tata Steel as a customer
“We got Tata Steel as a customer, and it's, there's no, that's not been much of a turnaround after that.”
Rao: India's green hydrogen targets require approximately 50 million tons of water
“India's target of five billion tons of indigenous green hydrogen production would require approximately fifty million tons of water.”
Ossus Biorenewables produces green hydrogen for refineries at 40 rupees per kg
“For certain PSUs in refining, it's 40 rupees per kilogram.”
Rao: Ossus operates a 250 kg/day plant using 18k liters effluent
“Our maximum capacity currently is 250 kilograms per day. And we use only 18 cubic meters or 18,000 liters of this particular effluent to do it. That's our largest sort of plant so far.”
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles cost three times more to run than EVs
“So whatever the cost of electricity tomorrow is in one rupee, it's going to cost the cost for hydrogen fuel cell vehicle will be three times more than a battery-operated electric vehicle.”
Maini: Indian government removed subsidies and doubled EV taxes before Reva launch
“One month after we launched, the government pulled the plug on subsidies, and actually one month before we launched, and doubled the taxation on electric vehicles... And reduced taxes on petrol vehicles.”
Maini: Reva expanded to 24 countries, with UK as largest market
“So we actually went to 24 countries. The UK was my largest market.”
Maini: Sun Mobility operates around 600 touch points, including over 400 in Delhi
“So today we have, ah, we have around 600 touch points. In Delhi, we have a little over 400. We have a station every two kilometers.”
92% of all electric two-wheelers in Taiwan use swappable batteries
“For example, if you look at a country like Taiwan, In 92% of all electric two wheelers are with swappable solutions, right? Just by one company, but it gives a solution to multiple companies.”
50% of electric trucks in China used swappable batteries in 2023
“This year, 50% of all electric trucks in China were with swappable batteries, right? That target was supposed to be achieved in 27.”
Maini: Sun Mobility has over 15,000 vehicles in its Mobility-as-a-Service fleet
“So today we maybe have only on mobility service, we have a little over 15,000 vehicles with fleet providers who in turn are using them to deliver to Amazons and Flipkarts and everyone else, right? We also have infrastructure at Amazon sites.”
Mehta: Ather Energy's first patent was for a swappable battery pack
“The first patent we filed at Aether was a swappable battery pack.”
Maini: Sun Mobility conducts one million battery swaps per month
“One is that the, we're doing a million swaps a month.”
EV battery cell production in India will begin within 24 months
“I think in the next 24 months, cells will start being produced in India, right? And maybe in 48 months, we'll have a very small chunk.”
BluSmart recovers EV capex premiums in 14 months via fuel savings
“The additional amount I paid for buying that electric vehicle with that additional battery, I recovered that in just 14 months because my operating cost was low.”
Maini: Sun Mobility's 600 Stations Can Service 120,000 Scooters Daily
“Each of us stations for the two wheelers today do 200 swaps a day. So you have 600 stations. So on a daily base, I can cater to 120,000 scooters, right?”
EV usage and buying patterns are identical across Indian city tiers
“I think tier one daily usage is 31 kilometers, tier two is like, 32, tier three is like, 29. There is no meaningful difference of usage, daily usage. There is no meaningful difference of buying patterns. Tier one, tier two, tier three.”
Maini: India's 2 Million E-Rickshaws Represent a $1 Billion Energy Market
“There's around two million e-rickshaws, which in battery swapping and energy businesses around a billion dollars a year, right? They're all in smaller cities.”
Maini: Sun Mobility Franchisees Earn a Minimum 18% to 22% Return
“Probably get an between an 18 to 22% return minimum.”
Tarun Mehta: Ather operates India's largest two-wheeler fast-charging network
“Actually in two wheelers, it's the largest fast charging network in the country.”
Tarun Mehta: Ather's charging connector is India's national standard
“Charging standard has become the national standard.”
Tarun Mehta: Dealership distribution is no longer a moat in India
“Long term distribution is not really a moat in India.”
Tarun Mehta: Ather will reach 1,000 touchpoints within 2.5 years
“We'll go from 200 touch points to a thousand touch points in the next two and a half years. At which point you've crossed oil and field scale already.”
Mehta: Viable cell manufacturing in India requires at least 4,000-5,000 crore investment
“The challenge of setting up cell manufacturing in India for a while now has been demanding. And the minimum investment required is pretty high. Like if you're not putting, if you're not bringing four, 5000 crores to the table, practically, it'll be very diffic…”
Mehta: Giant battery cell makers operate at thin 4-6% PAT margins
“Most cell manufacturing companies, the really enormous ones, like LG Chem, Panasonic, all these guys, even in the best times that they made cells and sold cells, had like crazy ability to sell price at any point. They can sell at any price, like last year basi…”
Cell manufacturing combines high technical complexity with poor commodity margins
“So I've really considered cell manufacturing is this really complexly bad combo. Very high tech with commodity margins. So it only makes strategic sense. It generally doesn't make cost sense.”
Mehta: Ather projects 8-10 year battery pack life, rivals will struggle past 5
“So for example, our oldest battery packs are now five years in the field. And we have, they are still at 90% plus health, which means we are now internally starting to project eight to 10 year battery life. We know in the industry that I think most of our comp…”
Mehta: EV range is a cost and spec decision, not breakthrough technology
“Range is a cost. Range is a product spec decision. How much range is? Obviously, it gets missold as like, you know, somebody's cracked this amazing battery that'll do thousand kilometers in a car. It's only two batteries. It doesn't crack any amazing technolog…”
Mehta: Ather is the only EV player without fast-charging restrictions
“For example, right now we are the only player where we don't put any restriction on fast charging. So we tell our customers, if you want to fast charge practically every day, be my guest, right?”
Mehta: No Indian electric two-wheeler OEM uses liquid cooling due to costs
“Yeah, but none of us in India does liquid cooling for a two-wheeler. Crazy cost structure. Doesn't make sense today.”
The raw material inside a 4 kWh EV battery costs $240
“Just the material alone in a typical four kilowatt battery pack is about 240 dollars today. About 60 dollars a kilowatt. This is the raw material inside.”
Mehta: Indian EV battery recycling will have guaranteed demand in 10-15 years
“So you set up recycling. I think it is such a stable business. It's two fifty million vehicles going to go to three fifty million vehicles and annually out of that three, thirty million is going to come back. And 1015 years later, a very large chunk of that wi…”
Mehta: Every 10% speed increase requires roughly 30% more motor power
“Every 10% speed increase, increases the motor power by roughly about 30%. Something like that, roughly.”
Ather's auto hill-hold feature lasts 10 minutes while Ola's lasts one
“The way we implemented and the way Ola implemented I think Ola's same capability would last a much shorter time. So if you engage this hill hole feature on a steep slope after a minute or so, the motor would be like, okay, now I can't support this. It'll start…”
Mehta: Batteries represent approximately 35% of electric scooter cost
“Batteries, I can't give the exact numbers, but in percentage, generally about 35% is a good estimate.”
Entering the electric two-wheeler market requires at least $100 million
“So your entry, entry point to building an e-to-wheeler in the market today, your table stakes of just entering this business, in my opinion, is about a hundred million. If you're bringing a hundred million, you can enter the game, and then you'll have to raise…”
Mehta: Ather has the world's largest electric two-wheeler R&D team
“Yes, that's why I said it's the world's largest R&D for two wheelers, electric two wheelers.”
Maini: India's 18% battery GST versus 5% EV GST penalizes EV manufacturers
“Electric vehicles at five percent GST, but a battery pack, right? Batteries are at 18%, right? So it's also hard, A, for a lot of companies only making electric vehicles where they'll have an inverted duty structure, because the input will over time be more th…”
Maini: Swappable battery EVs are denied subsidies given to fixed-battery versions
“In their showroom, there's a vehicle with a fixed battery and one with swappable. Both have identical vehicles. You can't tell the difference between them. You buy the one with fixed, the customer subsidy comes through. You buy the one with swappable, the subs…”
BluSmart electric cabs need ₹3,200 in daily revenue to break even
“A car should make about, to be self-sufficient, to break even on all, should make about 3200 rupees per day to cover all my costs. The car has to earn me 3200 rupees a day. It includes driver cost, lease of the car that I'm paying on daily basis.”
Mehta: High-end EVs over ₹40 lakh lack ROI unless driven 100km daily
“The problem is the asset cost of an electric car is so high, that the kilometer saving is only worth it if you buy a car in the 10 to 20 lakh range. If you buy like a 80 lakh, 40, even a 40 lakh electric car, you don't have an ROI. Unless you run it like a hun…”
Ather's battery subscription failed because Indian consumers prefer vehicle ownership
“We attempted a variant of it. So I do believe in it, and I still do, and I'm hoping that we learn how to crack it. But back in twenty-twenty ... We said you could take a battery on subscription. ... Enormous, massive community pullback, like pushback, like, be…”
Maini: Delhi EV Subsidies Stem from a Decade-Old Fuel Cess Fund
“Delhi already started this almost 12, 13 years ago. They created the ambient air quality fund, which taxed a certain paisa for every litre of diesel and petrol. And that put it into this ambient air quality fund, which will only be used for EVs. The reason Del…”