Sep 3, 2025 · 2h 59m · wtf
India vs. China vs. US: Who Wins the Next Decade? | WTF is Finance | Ep 1 ft. Ruchir Sharma · Nikhil Kamath
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Host Nikhil Kamath and investor-author Ruchir Sharma engage in an expansive macroeconomic discussion analyzing the contrasting developmental trajectories of India, China, and the United States. They dissect global capitalism, regulatory reform, shifting market cycles, and the future of currency hegemony to identify key geopolitical and investment trends for the coming decade.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Nikhil holds 28.5% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Nikhil as informed peer 4.6 Guest teaching 4.3 Guest disagreement 2.0 Nikhil pushing back 2.8
speaking balance: gold is Nikhil, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 16:01 Dismissing import substitution
Ruchir rejects Nikhil's historical parallel to the UK Industrial Revolution, citing broad empirical evidence that protective trade barriers left developing nations uncompetitive.
Hardest push from Nikhil ▶ 42:15 Refusing reserve currency yield estimateNikhil directly rejects Ruchir's academic estimate of a 50-100 bps borrowing advantage, arguing foreign debt buyers have no other choice and the actual discount is far larger.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 1:27:40 The Moscow Kremlin presentationRuchir delivers a detailed, candid masterclass on political overconfidence, recounting how his televised critique of Russia's missing consumer brands led to a hasty departure from Moscow.
Nikhil holds their own ▶ 2:00:30 Defending capital account convertibility from GIFT CityNikhil leverages his insider knowledge as a GIFT City board member to dismantle the traditional regulatory fear of net capital outflows.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Nikhil as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Nikhil pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Welcome to the Table: South Bombay Roots | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Nikhil Kamath and Ruchir Sharma engage in light personal banter about Mumbai roots, mutual acquaintances like Nandan Nilekani, and childhood postings in Singapore. | |
| Socialism vs Economic Freedom: India and East Asia | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | Ruchir clarifies the difference between authoritarianism and communism, emphasizing how Singapore and Deng Xiaoping's China provided extensive economic freedom compared to India's closed socialist model. | |
| The Dangers of Premature Welfare States | 4 | 6 | 3 | 4 | Nikhil raises the UK Industrial Revolution protectionist model and historical wealth persistence. Ruchir counters with East Asian empirical data, explaining that early welfare states and import substitution hinder sustained 8-10% GDP growth. | |
| The Origin and Reality of Anti-Incumbency | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | Nikhil cites regional South Asian neighbors to query political turnover, while Ruchir draws on broad emerging market data and his psephology travels to explain how anti-incumbency has shifted globally. | |
| The Great Gatsby Curve: Opportunity Versus Outcome | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | Nikhil raises the Great Gatsby Curve and the rising cost of US education. Ruchir explains the distinction between equal opportunity versus equal outcome and how government intervention reduces social churn. | |
| The Pitfalls of Regulating Real Money Gaming | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | Nikhil discusses prediction markets like Kalshi/Polymarket and Indian crypto TDS. Ruchir outlines why he leans towards deregulation, arguing that heavy-handed rules routinely entrench large incumbents and stifle startup dynamism. | |
| Dollar Hegemony, Reserve Currency Perks, and Sanctions | 6 | 5 | 3 | 5 | Nikhil pushes back on US borrowing privileges, arguing reserve currency perks yield far more than 100 bps in yield discount. Ruchir points out US market depth, lack of capital controls, and the weaponization of sanctions after the Ukraine invasion. | |
| Housing Affordability, Tax Systems, and Economic Growth | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | Nikhil proposes property taxes to capture black money and fund social infrastructure. Ruchir argues India's tax-to-GDP ratio is already high for its per capita income level and that higher marginal rates simply fuel avoidance. | |
| Speculation Taxes, Dabba Markets, and Ease of Business | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | Nikhil shares direct brokerage domain knowledge regarding STT, exchange fees, and unregulated dabba markets. Ruchir shares his experience with bureaucratic friction and advocates for regulatory simplification. | |
| Competitive Federalism and State-Level Economic Engines | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | Ruchir highlights competitive federalism across states like Karnataka and Tamil Nadu as India's main growth engine. Nikhil agrees and inquires whether further decentralization to municipal mayors risks local graft. | |
| Equity-Linked Trust Funds, Subsidies, and UBI Realities | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | Nikhil discusses Michael Milken's equity-linked birth endowment proposal and AI-driven deflation. Ruchir expresses healthy skepticism about speculative welfare schemes given existing sovereign deficits and unproven AI productivity gains. | |
| Leadership Blueprint for Reforming Indian Economic Policy | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | Nikhil synthesizes the policy takeaways into a concrete checklist for Indian administrative reform. Both discuss suitable figures like Nandan Nilekani, N. Chandrasekaran, and seasoned bureaucrats to execute deregulation. | |
| The Perils of Frank Advice: Facing Putin in Moscow | 3 | 6 | 3 | 1 | Ruchir recounts a gripping firsthand story of delivering a critical macroeconomic presentation to Vladimir Putin at a 2010 Moscow summit, which resulted in a hostile media backlash and hasty departure. | |
| Media Polarization, Subscription Models, and Free Speech | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | Nikhil asks whether podcasting and cooperative journalism avoid corporate sponsorship compromises. Ruchir illustrates how reader subscription models in major Western outlets like the New York Times created ideological echo chambers. | |
| Cultivating Unpredictability and Non-Ideological Thinking | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | Nikhil and Ruchir discuss maintaining non-ideological, contrarian flexibility in financial markets, touching on why short selling is inherently difficult and how AI makes predictable commentary obsolete. | |
| Ruchir Sharma's Early Career: Economic Times to Wall Street | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | Ruchir charts his early journey writing the Forex Watch column for Economic Times as an SRCC student and surviving the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis after joining Morgan Stanley. | |
| The True Measure of Wealth: Autonomy Over Status | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | Nikhil presses Ruchir on ranking wealth, intellectual reputation, and social influence. Ruchir clarifies that financial capital serves as an empowering means to achieve complete personal autonomy. | |
| Revitalizing Foreign Direct Investment in India | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | Nikhil draws on his board-level experience at GIFT City to argue that full capital account convertibility would drive net inflows. Ruchir acknowledges the theory but notes policymakers fear capital flight and ground-level regulatory friction. | |
| Global Market Cycles: US Exceptionalism vs Rest of World | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | Ruchir explains the multi-decade rotation between US assets and the rest of the world, forecasting a weaker dollar and international outperformance. Nikhil questions whether the rupee's recent slide is deliberate export positioning. | |
| Digital Sovereignty: American Big Tech and Domestic Ecosystems | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | Nikhil raises concern over Indian digital sovereignty and advertising revenue draining into US Big Tech platforms. Ruchir compares India's reliance on US tech with China's homegrown ecosystem and US difficulties banning TikTok. | |
| Key Reforms to Overcome India's FDI Bottlenecks | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | Ruchir and Nikhil discuss the widening valuation gap between Indian small caps and large caps, the disproportionate compliance burden on emerging fund managers, and why unchecked Big Tech acquisitions stifle market churn. | |
| China's Economic Trajectory: Tech Prowess vs Debt and Demographics | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2 | Ruchir provides a nuanced breakdown of China's current macro setup, balancing high consumer debt and demographic decline against world-class technological execution and hyper-intense domestic corporate competition. | |
| Challenging American Exceptionalism: Markets, AI, and Capital | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | Ruchir evaluates why broad US indices masked weak median stock performance without mega-cap AI leaders. Nikhil questions whether societal stability requires wage growth to consistently outpace asset inflation. | |
| Gold Versus Bitcoin: Overcoming 'Portfolio Disease' | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | Nikhil outlines his personal gold allocation strategy while Ruchir diagnoses 'portfolio disease'—the habit of checking daily price fluctuations while claiming a multi-year investment horizon. |
Statements from this episode (113)
Kamath: Nilekani, Mazumdar-Shaw, and Premji bought houses in Coonoor
“So Nandan, Kiran, Gitanjali,
Premji, I think they've all bought houses in Kunur.”
Kamath: Alan Turing's parents lived in Nandan Nilekani's Coonoor house
“So his parents lived in Nandan's house in Kunur.”
Sharma: China and Singapore had far more economic freedom than India in the 1980s
“From an economic standpoint, China and Singapore, especially then, Were far more, ah, free than India.”
Sharma: India's initial economic opening began in the early 1980s, before 1991
“The first sign of opening up in India happened, in fact, in the early 19 eighties. You know, people would usually associate India's opening up in 1991, right? When the big reforms took place with Narasimha Rao, Manmohan Singh. But there was also a phase in the…”
Sharma: China laid off 90 million state enterprise workers in 1990s
“In the Nineties. This is one thing which I find very fascinating. China fired ninety million people from its state-owned enterprises.”
Sharma: East Asian nations prioritized economic freedom over political democracy
“India gave its people lots of political freedom. That you can vote, and the way you want, and you have democracy. These countries did not give their people much political freedom, but they gave their people much more economic freedom compared to India.”
Sharma: Korea, India, and Brazil had similar per capita income in 1960s
“For example, the 19 sixties, Korea, India, Brazil, they all had similar per capita income, which means that they were similarly rich or poor whichever way you want to look at it.”
Sharma: India's 1960s–70s import substitution left industry uncompetitive
“We tried that. We tried that in the 19 sixties. We tried that in the 19 seventies. It was called something called import substitution, which is exactly what you're referring to, and it didn't work. It left us very uncompetitive.”
Sharma: Sustained 8-9% economic growth originated with East Asian model
“This model of growing at 8:09 percent a year Is very much an East Asian economic model. Before that, there were very little examples of countries growing at that pace.”
Sharma: Western social and economic mobility has declined over past 40 years
“Social and economic mobility in Western societies has declined in the last 30 to 40 years.”
Sharma: American optimism about out-earning parents dropped from 80% to 30%
“Only about 30 to 40% of Americans today feel that they can have a better life than their parents. But back in the fifties and sixties, when the American dream was really shining, every American thought, virtually 70 to 80% of Americans thought that they, you k…”
Sharma: Western incumbents lose elections while emerging market incumbents win
“If you look at the Western countries today most governments lose election there whereas in emerging markets, in developing countries of late, most incumbents are winning their elections which is the big difference that's happened.”
Sharma: Incumbent Reelection Rates Exceed 50% in Major Emerging Markets
“If you look at around the world, from Indonesia, to Brazil, to other countries, you find, even Mexico and stuff, you find that the incumbent in general, the chance of the incumbent winning has now gone up by more than 50%.”
Sharma: The Term 'Anti-Incumbency' Was Coined in India
“The word anti-incumbency was in fact coined in India from what I know. You know, like my sophologist friends Pranoy Roy and Dorab Soparivala with whom I travel on election trips.”
Sharma: 'I invest for the dough, I write for the show'
“I think as I said in the past that I invest for the dough, I write for the show.”
Sharma: Incumbent US White House party lost three consecutive elections for first time in 200 years
“This is the first time in America's history that the, at least in the last 200 years that I know of, that the incumbent party in the White House lost three times in a row.”
Sharma: American discontent is driven by declining social and geographic mobility
“That's one of the reasons the grievance of people is because over time these gaps have increased a lot more. You know, where you feel that you can't, ah, that social mobility is going on because you can't move from one city to another that easily as you, like,…”
Sharma: US net immigration jumped to 2-3 million annually post-pandemic
“Then what happened was that after the pandemic, and because the Biden administration was supposed to really lose towards immigration, that number jumped to two or three million people a year of people coming in.”
Sharma: US net immigration likely to fall below 500,000 this year
“This year, I'm told that number is likely to drop to less than half a million.”
Sharma: US growth outperformance over Europe and Japan is largely demographic
“The really underappreciated part of the demographic advantage America had. That because, partly because of immigration, America's population growth rate was much faster than Europe and Japan. So if you adjusted for per capita income, yes, the gap is there, but…”
Sharma: Bailing out private companies prevents new entrants and harms mobility
“The government should not be bailing out private sector companies, and should sort of, you know, keep, because I think that that creates an impression that the government is favoring the incumbent. Because after all, if companies are failing, it's, you know, i…”
Sharma: Government regulation inherently favors incumbent companies 90% of the time
“Every time a policymaker introduces a new regulation, remember that regulation by definition tends to be pro-incumbent. Whoever the person in power or the company which is already established, regulation, 90% of the time favors those people. So I think that is…”
Kamath: Physical gold storage and insurance in India costs roughly 30 bps
“The cost of insuring vaulting gold is maybe, in India, I know the price is, maybe the actual cost is about 30 bips. At scale, it would be even lower. That is lower than managing cryptocurrencies in a way.”
Sharma: Bitcoin and crypto are here to stay as mainstream assets
“I think Bitcoin is here to stay. Crypto is here to stay. This has lasted long enough. It's getting mainstream, whether it's banks or asset management firms who told you five years ago, we'll never touch this thing.”
Sharma: I hold zero crypto because I kept chasing the price
“No, unfortunately, like I've always chased the price, which is that I kept thinking it's getting too high.”
Sharma: Reserve currency status cuts US borrowing costs by 50-100 bps
“Some estimates suggest somewhere between 50 to hundred basis points, half a percent to one percent of annual borrowing costs are possibly lower. Because of the fact that America has the world's reserve currency.”
Sharma: 2022 Russia sanctions triggered major shift to gold and Bitcoin
“That was a big, in fact, Philip for gold and for Bitcoin and stuff. The moment America sanctioned Russia, ah, back in, ah, the spring of twenty-twenty-two.”
Sharma: India will never sustain an annual GDP growth rate above 6%
“And therefore we'll never grow at a rate of more than six percent on a sustained basis has been my view for a very long period of time.”
Sharma: India's per capita income is barely $3,000
“Our per capita income is, you know, barely 3000 dollars.”
Sharma: Regulation Is the Single Biggest Driver of Western Housing Unaffordability
“Regulation in the West for sure has been the single biggest reason why homes have become so unaffordable.”
Sharma: US annual home construction matches 1950s levels despite 50% population growth
“The number of new homes that America builds today is the same as a year, is the same as it was in the 19 fifties and sixties. Even though the population is 50% higher.”
Sharma: India's Tax-to-GDP Ratio Is High for Its Per Capita Income
“Because for our per capita income level at 3000 dollars or so, our tax to GDP ratio is pretty high.”
Sharma: Studies Show Flat Taxes Are Most Effective for Raising Revenue
“The studies which have done have generally shown that, in fact, a flat tax tends to be the best way to raise more taxes.”
Kamath: Zerodha earns less revenue per user than government taxes and fees
“We as a broker end up making lesser revenue as a typical user might pay in security transaction tax, plus the transaction charge that an exchange charges, plus SEBI says, education says, all of that put together.”
Kamath: Illegal off-exchange 'dabba' trading is Zerodha's biggest business hindrance
“Settling amongst each other, or they're betting against a local broker who's not going to the formal exchanges. It's the biggest hindrance to our business.”
Sharma: Regulatory burden in India exceeds any other country he knows
“Like the regulatory burden is still much greater in India than any other country that I know of.”
Sharma: Foreign investors in India prefer local partners over greenfield setups
“Foreign investors are much happier piggybacking on some local person who knows how to navigate the system, rather than come greenfield and set something up.”
Sharma: Onerous Indian Regulations Force Businesses to Break Rules
“One big reason why so many people in this country are forced to do stuff which is strictly not per the law or the regulatory framework is because those laws and, ah, regulations are so onerous that to do business in India, you almost have to beat them.”
Sharma: Fear of Expressing Opinions in India Is Higher Than 20–30 Years Ago
“I think there's a level of fear is there, which is that if you end up saying something, or if you end up doing something, you know, that there may be consequences for you. I think that That has become much more in India today than it used to be 2030 years ago.”
Sharma: India Will Never Dismantle Its Welfare State
“The other stuff of not having a welfare state, et cetera, that's all theoretical. There's no way that's happening.”
Sharma: Karnataka had India's sharpest state per capita income rise over 10-20 years
“What I do is I maintain a rank of all the states, ah, and where they stand on their per capita income and what the movements have been over time. So Karnataka has seen the sharpest movement in the last 1020 years, in fact.”
Sharma: Bihar grew rapidly from 2005-2015 but has returned to stagnation
“There was a 10 year phase when Bihar seemed to really grow very rapidly, which was from 2005 to 20 15. But it's gone back into stagnating.”
Kamath: The World Economic Forum in Davos is becoming less relevant
“I don't know how relevant Davos is now versus it was five years ago. I think Davos is becoming less relevant as an organization in itself, but you do see chief ministers competing there.”
Sharma: Competitive federalism is India's greatest strength and Modi's legacy priority
“I find this competitive federalism is India's greatest strength, and the more the center can allow that, if Modi really wants to leave behind a legacy, I think that in terms of, ah, this is where I would say, you know, should be the real priority.”
Sharma: India is not unusually corrupt given its per capita income
“As far as India is concerned, given a per capita income, I think that it's not as if we are Much more corrupt.”
Kamath: Corruption is acceptable if it expedites processes and circulates money
“I feel like corruption is a bigger detriment to society when the money is taken out of circulation. Or it delays processes. As long as the process is getting expedited by virtue of corruption, and money is not getting hoarded, I mean, like, if a politician tak…”
Sharma: Ballooning government deficits prevent the adoption of universal basic income
“Again, I don't see the evidence that it's moving in a very big direction just because the deficits are already so large for these countries.”
Sharma: Current AI boom echoes the 1999-2000 dotcom bubble
“I think that it's undoubtedly a hugely transformative technology, but I'm very concerned that this got echoes of what we went through in nine nine, 2000.”
Kamath: Unprofitable AI startups generating $50M in revenue are valued at $30B
“Like, there are companies which are earning fifty million, hundred million dollars of revenue, losing a lot of money, but they're worth 10,000,000,020 1,000,000,030 billion.”
Kamath: Investing equally in today's top 100 AI companies will lose money
“If you were to put one dollar in hundred of the leading AI companies of today, 10 years down the line, I don't think you would have made money.”
Sharma: Indian economic reform momentum flagged after 1993 as pressure eased
“In, you know, like, 91, 92, 93, we saw lots of reforms. And then, once the pressure was off, that momentum began to flag.”
Sharma: Russia was among few countries to enact a 13% flat tax
“One of the very few governments in the world which actually introduced a flat tax was Russia.
Right.
Right.
They said flat tax.
I think it was 13% or something.
Said flat tax.”
Sharma: Oil prices surged from $20 to $100 during Putin's first decade
“When he came to power, the oil price was 20 dollars a barrel.
And then by the end of the decade, oil price was a hundred dollars a barrel.”
Sharma: Putin speaks English well but will never speak it publicly
“He knows English very well, but he'll never speak in English ever.
He'll only speak in Russian in, in like public.”
Sharma: Leaders become intolerant of criticism once firmly entrenched in power
“And then I learned that this advice giving business
It's just counterproductive, and doing, giving frank exchange, and all that, just doesn't work.
And how, it also taught me about how leaders transform over time.
That when he first came to power, he seemed re…”
Sharma: Publishing in The New York Times Requires Fitting an Ideological Filter
“Like I used to write for the New York Times before this. And there it's much more ideological. If you don't have that world vision, then to pass your content through that filter is lot more difficult. That is a bigger problem, I feel.”
Sharma: Subscription Business Models Pressure Outlets to Cater to Partisan Subscribers
“Their subscription revenue drives their revenue model. It's not, ah, it's not advertising so much anymore. It's there, but subscription is the overwhelming driver. Now you would imagine that in a subscription driven model, it should be much more, ah, free pres…”
Kamath: Consumers subscribe for journalist bias, ensuring media bias will never disappear
“When we subscribe to a media house that I read from a certain journalist, I'm actually subscribing to the bias of that journalist. If you withdraw that bias from that journal, then I might as well read those 20 lines of text. So bias will never go away, I feel…”
Sharma: Quality commentary and journalism must be intellectually unpredictable
“I think that I still believe in, maybe this is a slightly old school of journalism, that your writing needs to be unpredictable.”
Kamath: People who frequently change their minds will become more valuable with AI
“So in a way, in a very perverse way, people who change their mind constantly in the future, Will have more of a use case in a world where predictability becomes very low hanging fruit because of AI.”
Sharma: AI is a larger economic force than Donald Trump
“AI mania, that as I keep telling people that you're obsessed with Trump, but there's a force larger than Trump. It's AI today.”
Kamath: India lacks robust stock lending, forcing shorting via short-dated derivatives
“India doesn't have a very robust lending and borrowing mechanism. So you can't really borrow companies to short. Yeah. Largely people choose to short through derivative contracts, which have, the liquid contracts have a shelf life of not longer than three mont…”
Kamath: India taxes short-selling profits at 40% versus 10% for long positions
“But if you're short and you're right, you pay 40% tax. If you're long and you're right, you pay 10%.”
Kamath: India must level the playing field for short sellers
“I feel like shorting is such a essential part of the ecosystem. It makes our markets so much more robust. It's an artificial flow when a correction is happening, shorts will cover, but also price discovery becomes a lot more efficient. I feel like we really ne…”
Sharma: Morgan Stanley offered him $100,000 starting compensation at age 22 in 1996
“And then Morgan Stanley hires me then and they, I remember those days they made an offer to me of a 100,000 dollars.”
Sharma: True happiness is complete personal autonomy, enabled by money
“Like the, like for me, when someone asks me, what's your definition of happiness? I think for me, the definition of happiness is having complete autonomy.”
Sharma: India's net foreign direct investment has never sustainably exceeded 1%
“Because if you look at the East Asian countries, when they were doing well, since we've spoken so much about East Asia today as an example, they were attracting FDI of three to four percent of GDP. We have never really broken much above one percent of GDP, the…”
Kamath: Capital account convertibility would yield net inflows for India
“I personally believe that if India were to become capital account convertible, more money would come in than go out.”
Sharma: Capital convertibility historically triggers initial net capital inflows
“Capital convertibility has always led, in general, on balance, at least initially, to more capital flowing in than flowing out because it's a statement of confidence in your economy.”
Kamath: The era of the Indian rupee depreciating 4-5% annually is over
“I think that rupee depreciating four percent a year versus the dollar or five percent on average, that error is over.”
Sharma: Global equity markets will outperform the US over the next decade
“No, my view is very clear just now, that over the next 10, five, 10 years, I think the rest of the world outperforms the US.”
Sharma: US Stock Returns Outpaced Rest of World Threefold
“Last 10 to 15 years, the US returns have just been three times faster than the rest of the world.”
Sharma: Outside of AI, all US assets are overvalued or fundamentally flawed
“That if you want to be in the US, do it only for AI. Everything else in the US today doesn't, is either expensive or fundamentally flawed.”
Sharma: The US dollar will remain relatively weak for 5 to 7 years
“And a very key part of this is going to be that the dollar, I think, is going to be relatively weak for the next Five, seven years for the foreseeable future.”
Sharma: Lack of capital convertibility keeps trust in Chinese currency low
“Because China doesn't have, it's still at the end of the day controlled by a communist party. And they don't have capital account convertibility. Therefore the trust in the Chinese currency is still very low.”
Sharma: The US dollar regularly experiences 30% to 40% cyclical declines
“If you look at the last, ah, you know, 50 odd years, right, since we've had freely floating exchange rates, it's not that even when the dollar's been the dominant currency in this, as far as if the dollar always goes up, there have been very significant period…”
Sharma: Seizing Russian assets alerted global governments to US dollar risks
“The way the sanctions were imposed on, on Russia at the time of the Ukrainian war, where the assets were seized. And Russia was thrown off the dollar grid completely. I think that was a big wake up call for governments around the world that, Listen, this, if t…”
Kamath: Sanctioning Russia was the US dollar's biggest self-inflicted wound
“I think that's the one most significant Self-goal the dollar has ever hit in its tenure.”
Sharma: Trump's foreign policy is transactional and can reverse on India instantly
“We're in a world, at least Trump's world is a very transactional world. And this is what I said even when he, like when he got elected. So let's not think that there's something major strategic going on here. This is a transactional world. If tomorrow somethin…”
Kamath: India Has the Largest User Base on Major American Social Platforms
“Like if you look at how many users, any of these Instagram, Twitter, et cetera, have the highest user base is India.”
Sharma: India Lacks the Capability to Build Sovereign Big Tech Alternatives
“But that's where we, I don't think we have that, that capability as yet. I don't see the evidence.”
Kamath: AI Coding Tools Let Developers Rebuild Tech Giants at a Fraction of the Cost
“I feel like AI and the ability to code with things like cursor and a bunch of other changes have democratized the ability to build A lot of these American products which might have costed X at a fraction of X.”
Sharma: State chief ministers must take responsibility for driving Indian FDI
“But I, and also, as I said, the responsibility also has to be down with the chief ministers as well. Especially for FDI.”
Kamath: Indian small caps outperformed large caps over the last decade and trade higher
“In the last decade, small cap companies in India have outperformed large cap companies, and they are more expensive today.”
Sharma predicts large caps will outperform small and mid caps for the foreseeable future
“One of my big top trends was this, that I expect much more that the large caps to outperform small to mid caps for the small caps for at least the foreseeable future.”
Sharma: There is no real movement in the US to break up Big Tech
“There's no movement in America to break these companies down.”
Sharma: US Big Tech market dominance is so extreme that acquisitions should be banned
“If I was a regulator in America, I would like, even though I'm a free market person, I think it's become so extreme where you need, this is one area where I would say that almost that acquisitions need to be banned.”
Sharma: US hedge fund startup compliance costs increased 10x over twenty years
“If you set up a hedge fund today in America, the cost of doing that has gone up 10 X. Over the last 20 years. The legal costs, the compliance costs, administrative costs. So then the threshold for you to break even has become much higher.”
Sharma: Only five or six countries globally levy an inheritance tax
“I think five or six countries in the entire world where inheritance tax still exists.”
Sharma: Dominance by seven companies is America's fundamental economic problem
“What's the fundamental problem today in America? It's that you're dominated by seven companies. That I think has become a fundamental issue at many levels in America today.”
Sharma: Following 1978 reforms, China's state employment share fell to 30%
“When Deng Xiaoping began economic reforms in China in 1978, the government was practically more like the entire economy. It, the government's share in the economy, if you look at employment and other things, over the next 3040 years, fell to about 30%.”
Sharma: No country achieves rapid economic growth without rapid population growth
“There is no country in the world which has grown rapidly without rapid population growth. No country.”
Sharma: China is the only country besides the US developing meaningful AI
“Even on the AI front, the only other country in the world today which can do AI of any meaningful scale is China. No European country or any emerging market can.”
Sharma: China's debt as a share of GDP matches the United States
“In fact, today, China's debt today is, ah, like consumer debt or the debt of the share of its economy is same level as America, even though America is, you know, a much richer economy and stuff.”
Sharma: Intense competition makes investing harder in China than in the US
“One of the reasons you very hard, it's harder as an investor to make money in China than America is not because of anything else that the government's taking your capital. No, no, no. It's because competition is so intense.”
Sharma: International stock markets are up 20% year-to-date versus 8-9% for US
“So the American stock market, even after this big comeback is up about eight, nine percent for the year. The international stock markets in dollar terms are up 20%.”
Sharma: US stock market would be down without the AI bubble
“Because if it weren't for the AI bubble today, the AI mania, I think the American stock market would be down.”
Sharma: Governments never cut spending without an economic crisis
“And until you get an economic crisis, no one cuts government spending anywhere in the world.”
Sharma: People across income levels perpetually want to 2x their wealth
“Ajit Jain from Berkshire Hathaway, that no matter what your net worth is, you always want to be two X. Everyone thinks everyone across the income curve, unless you're Bill Gates, who apparently said that for me, everything is free. So that's different, right? …”
Kamath keeps 8% to 10% of his net worth in gold
“I try and make it a habit. To keep between eight to 10% of whatever I have in gold. And I've been doing that for a long time.”
Sharma views gold and Bitcoin as equally viable anti-dollar plays
“I'm like equal, I mean, like, I, you know, like, do the two equally, because I've been bullish too equally, because my negative view is on the dollar. Right? So therefore, I see both those as sort of anti-dollar plays.”
Sharma: US equities have seen multiple 10 to 15 year zero-return periods
“Even the US market, remember, has gone through many periods, when the real return on equities has been zero for 10 to 15 years.”
Sharma: Investors suffer by tracking daily P&L despite multi-decade horizons
“The biggest frustration for most people happens is that what they say the time horizon and how they experience the time horizon is very different. People will tell you, yeah, we're looking at a retirement, we're looking at, you know, the next 20, 30 years, wha…”
Sharma: The entire US valuation bubble is currently concentrated in private markets
“US, the entire bubble is, is now in the private markets, and it's not been tested.”
Sharma: Refuses to Allocate Capital to US Private Markets Today
“I'd say, ah, I would not put any money in private markets in the U.S. Today.”
Sharma: Most Personal Portfolio Capital Is in International and Emerging Markets
“I'm saying that as a small portion to what I think, but otherwise most of my capital is international today. My own portfolio. It's mainly emerging markets. And even Europe.”
Sharma: Poland is likely the next emerging market to achieve developed status
“And so the next country to become a developed country likely is going to be Poland.”
Sharma: In Emerging Markets, Country Selection Matters More Than Stock Picking
“In emerging markets I've always believed that getting the country right is very important. Country. And then at the end of the day, Like you have to buy the best quality companies in that country, but if you get the country wrong, then if you're investing in A…”
Sharma: Consumers, not AI producers, will capture economic value over next decade
“That is my thing that for the next, in the next five to 10 years, that we as a consumer will benefit, but I'm not sure that the producers of AI, so to speak, are going to be the beneficiaries. I don't think that's going to be the case.”