why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Szamosszegi: The Bitcoin mining network is almost carbon negative
“The entire network at this point in time is almost carbon negative.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2026
Hepworth: Bitcoin will surpass $200,000 during the current market cycle
“Even though I think we're going to go up to 200 K plus the cycle, you could exit right now and you've still done a five X, but people don't do that.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Weisbrot: Bitcoin's Creator Would Probably Be Executed if Identified
“If their identity is discovered, they will probably be executed. For upending the financial system.”
Prediction Held up
Hepworth: Bitcoin will not deliver a 10x return from current levels
“Bitcoin isn't going to do a 10 X from here.”
Insight
Rare: Billionaires never sell cash-flow assets, holding them indefinitely
“Genuinely wealthy people, like we're talking billionaires, they don't sell their assets. They hold them forever, forever. And so when you look at Bitcoin, you look at any other crypto, you look at real estate holdings, you look at holding companies with other,…”
Insight
Hepworth: Self-custody Bitcoin unlocks DeFi products unavailable in ETFs
“You get access to way more financial products. If you hold the Bitcoin yourself, there's Bitcoin defy. You can make yield on it. You can loan it out. You can borrow against it. There's a whole bunch of things you can do with it that you cannot do. If it is jus…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hepworth: High-beta mid-caps like Aave will outperform Bitcoin and Ethereum
“Mid caps like Aave that are going to do well with the cycle generally, but they're a beta. So if the cycle does well, they're going to do better than the mainstay blue chips like Ethereum and Bitcoin.”
Assertion Supported
Hepworth: More millionaires exist on Earth than the 21M total Bitcoin supply
“There's only twenty one million. And so there's literally more millionaires on the planet than there are Bitcoin.”
Disclosure
Weisbrot: Startup paid salaries in Bitcoin and Ethereum before securing funding
“In the first half of last year, before we got funding we were using like Bitcoin and Ethereum to pay for things with salaries and software and things like that. And then once we got investment from people we started using, you know transfer wise, we're using S…”
Disclosure
Sean Weisbrot previously paid his employees in Bitcoin and Ethereum
“I, for the longest time was paying my employees in Bitcoin and Ethereum, because that's just how we had things structured.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2032
Rosenstein: Bitcoin and Ethereum will adopt quantum-resistant cryptography within a decade
“Bitcoin and Ethereum. I'm betting on it as things that are here to stay, you know, that's not investment advice, but you know, these blockchains are going to get to be quantum resistant. There might have to be some changes in the next decade of the algorithms …”
Assertion Contradicted
Rankin: Traditional banking cannot settle million-dollar international transfers for three dollars
“I only paid three dollars to send a million dollars to another country, and you cannot do that with the current financial system. It's just not possible.”
Disclosure
Weisbrot pays his entire workforce and legal counsel exclusively in Bitcoin
“I pay all of my Contractors, all of my employees, my lawyer, designers, everybody, I pay in Bitcoin.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Weisbrot: Crypto advisory and fundraising in China generated $15 million
“And after two months of doing that, I was able to raise money for the guy and then he wanted me to advise him and then other people wanted me to fundraise and then other people wanted me to advise and then this whole thing kind of spiraled into a crazy thing a…”
What-if
Sean Weisbrot: Selling $4,000 Bitcoin to fund startup cost $15 million
“I had held that money in Bitcoin and I was paying for things for the business at a point when Bitcoin had hit its low of 4000 dollars. So had I not spent, had I not started that company, I'd have an extra 10 or fifteen million dollars in just liquidity.”