why aren't all 45 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Spiffy generates $3 annual revenue per capita in its mature Raleigh market
“If you look at our Raleigh market, which is one of our biggest ones, it's our home market. We're getting you know, three dollars for every million people in our per capita. So, so, so that's kind of the ceiling that I'm aware of right now that we can get to. W…”
Disclosure
Wingo: Secondary share sales are not a major consideration at Spiffy
“I'm in a position, this is my fourth company where I don't really want to do secondary. I'm kind of doing the opposite. I'm investing into things. So secondary hasn't been a huge consideration for us.”
Disclosure
Spiffy employs its mobile technicians as W-2 workers without guaranteed hours
“They are. They're W-II. So they, you know, the W-II worker is an hourly employee. They are an employee, but they don't all get 40 hours.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wingo: Spiffy crosses $50M in annual recurring revenue
“We just crossed fifty million AR so that was exciting.”
Opinion
Wingo: Amazon DSP last-mile maintenance is a $200M opportunity
“The Amazon DSP opportunity alone is probably a two hundred million dollar opportunity for the last mile stuff.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wingo: Spiffy software could become the 'Shopify for digital services'
“There's no reason your local plumber wouldn't use this software. It could be Shopify for digital services is where we're going.”
Disclosure
Scott Wingo: Spiffy raises at 50% to 60% of SaaS valuation multiples
“We're SaaS-like but we should, you know, we don't earn SaaS multiples. So, so we've been getting, you know, kind of like around a little, around half to 60% of SaaS multiples, which I'm okay with because I've been in the other situation where, you know you hav…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wingo: Digitization of consumer services will outpace e-commerce's timeline
“And I think it's going to happen faster because it's taken a long time for e-commerce to get to where it is because we had to get digital payments and the phones and all this stuff, broadband, all this jazz, all that's in place now.”
Disclosure
Spiffy employs service technicians directly, rejecting Uber's 1099 marketplace model
“Unlike Uber where it's a 10 99 marketplace our, we decided early on to take a page from Amazon's playbook. And these are our employees.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Spiffy hit a $20M pre-pandemic run rate, including $4M office park ARR
“So for us so from that, we were pre-pandemic, we were at about a twenty million run rate, and office parks were about four million of that, so we had grown it to four million ARR.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Spiffy spends $100K to $200K to launch a new city to profitability
“All in to get a city profitable for us is somewhere around a hundred to 200 K. And a lot of it depends on how big we start. So if we start with four trucks, that's gonna be like the one 50. We could start with two or three trucks and get it down to sub a hundr…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Spiffy achieves 20% net margins, with a path to reach 25%
“Net. 20% now. And I think we can get to 25.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Spiffy's sales and marketing spend is under 20% of overall revenue
“Our sales and marketing as a percent of revenue has gone down and it's sub 20%. And I can see it getting to sub 10%.”
Disclosure
Scott Wingo: Spiffy Employs Technicians and Owns Vans Instead of Using 1099 Contractors
“So unlike a lot of the on demand economy where they're just kind of a marketplace or they're working a network of 10 99 contractors. We actually own and operate the whole soup to nuts. So we employ the technicians, we own the assets, the vans that are utilized…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wingo: GoTo.com invented paid search, but Google made the money
“They invented paid search. Google made all the money, but go to kind of invented it.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wingo: Auction Rover received $50M-$100M acquisition offers with zero revenue
“50 to a hundred million and we had no revenue. So I was kind of like, you know, this would be remiss to say no and then have the bottom fall out from this thing and always say, wow, what, you know, what if we had sold this six month old company with no revenue…”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Wingo: Bought back Auction Rover assets for roughly $1M all in
“Yeah, it was around a million dollars all in.”
Disclosure
Scott Wingo: Spiffy is 85% B2B fleet and 15% consumer
“We're 85% B to B, which is fleet in my world of car care, and then 15% consumer.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Scott Wingo: Spiffy serves all major rental car companies
“We have all the large rental car companies are our customers, Enterprise Hertz, Avis Budget, Sixth, et cetera.”
Disclosure
Spiffy fleet revenue splits evenly across oil, washes, and other services
“Of that fleet business about a third is oil change, a third is wash, and a third is other, which includes tires, brakes, light repair, windshield, odor elimination.”
Disclosure
Spiffy discounts oil changes from $100 for consumers to $40 for fleets
“So a consumer oil change is about a hundred dollars. And then with some of our fleet partners, you know, just the oil change, we can get into the 40, 50 dollar zone per car. You'll like this. Yeah. Per, per vehicle. But there'll be a commitment of volume there…”
Disclosure
Spiffy operates roughly 280 service vans daily across the US
“We have about 280 vans zipping around the United States every day.”
Disclosure
Spiffy trucks average $800 daily revenue, peaking at $2,000 maximum
“Across our whole network, we're at 800. So we have cities that are getting there. But we're, you know, that, that is a theoretical you know, we, we've gotten there and you know, like every day we have five trucks that get there, but that's like, that's a stret…”
Disclosure
Wingo: Spiffy has completed about four acquisitions
“We have, we've done about four acquisitions.”
Disclosure
Spiffy closed a $30M Series B in tranches in 2022
“We did a thirty million series B that we had some chunks in it, but the last chunk was ten million, and that was earlier this year.”
Disclosure
Spiffy runs 500 field technicians with just 60 headquarters staff
“So we have about 60 people in headquarters. So in this model, we want to keep our headquarters as kind of light as possible because it's really overhead for the operations that go on and out in the field we have over you know, hopefully hope you're sitting dow…”
Assertion Contradicted
Wingo: ChannelAdvisor reached 1,000 employees at $100M SaaS revenue
“Channel advisor got to be a thousand people at a hundred million SAS.”
Assertion Supported
US consumer services are twice the size of consumer goods in GDP
“If you look at, I'm also a hobby economist and if you look at the GDP of the United States, consumer services are twice the size as consumer goods.”
Disclosure
Spiffy has raised slightly over $30 million in total funding
“I, you know, fortunately, knock on wood, I've been fortunate enough to raise more, so I've raised a little north of thirty million.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Pre-COVID, Spiffy generated $1,000 monthly revenue per office park
“So prior to COVID office parks are the number one channel for consumers. And on average, we make a thousand dollars a month at an office park.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Spiffy does 1,000 daily vehicle services, primarily serving commercial fleets
“So every day we do a thousand services, I would say a 150 a day are consumers.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Spiffy drives repeat revenue: 60% for consumers, 95% for commercial fleets
“Over 60% of our revenue each month is from existing customers on the consumer side. Like it's like 95% on the fleet side.”
Insight
Rental fleets deprioritize $40 oil changes to keep expensive mechanics on repairs
“They pay these ASE certified mechanics, 30 to 50 dollars an hour. And when you pay someone that much, their triage list is, you know you know, engine problems, brakes, batteries, anything else but oil change. So, so they really don't want them working on oil c…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rental cars awaiting offsite oil changes lose $250 in potential revenue
“Look, those cars are sitting there for five days on average, losing 50 dollars a day in rental opportunity.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wingo: Spiffy operates 210 service trucks across the US
“We have 210 trucks across the United States.”
Disclosure
Spiffy leases 95% of its vehicle fleet to shift CapEx to OpEx
“So we lease 95% of it. You can even, we put a lot of equipment in the trucks. We lease that as well. So, so it really is, converts it from a CapEx to an OpEx, which is really nice.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sun sold $3M in servers on eBay during Beanie Baby era
“Sun Microsystems was our biggest seller. So we said, wow, that's amazing. And they had sold like three million dollars worth of servers on eBay. This is when eBay was largely beanie babies.”
Assertion Contradicted
Wingo: Auction Rover sold for $20M to $50M before using initial angel capital
“Yeah, so, so angel to ourselves got three, and before we could really get into the three, sold it for, you know, depending on the time and how you calculate it, about 20 to fifty million bucks.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wingo: Auction Rover competitor rejected $200M acquisition offer and became worthless
“It was crazy. You know, we had a competitor that got an offer of two hundred million and turned it down and then, you know, it became a zero.”
Disclosure
Wingo: ChannelAdvisor Founders Put in $10M of Personal Capital
“Myself and other founder put in about ten million bucks ourselves to get it going.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
ChannelAdvisor spent $60M on physical server infrastructure before its IPO
“So we raised ninety million bucks all in before the IPO and
you know, a good chunk of that price.
60 went into servers and building out a server farm.
The other 30 went into, in these software as a service models, as you know, you have to really ramp up the s…”
Assertion Partly supported
Wingo: ChannelAdvisor Priced at $14, Popped to $17 with $500M Cap
“So I know we priced at like 14 and then went to 17. So, you know, I would say five hundred million.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wingo: 70% of Spiffy's revenue is recurring from at-work office parks
“About 70% of our revenue is this at work consumer and the bulk of it's recurring. It's recurring at the office park level and not necessarily the consumer level.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wingo: Spiffy crossed $2M run rate with over 100% growth
“So we just crossed the two million dollar run rate and we're growing you know, north of a hundred percent.”
Assertion Supported
Spiffy operates in 17 geographic markets, up from 5 in 2017
“And also, since you and I last talked, we're now in 17 markets, and I think when we talked, we were probably in five.”