The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Avarell: Ember will '100%' surpass $100 million in GMV in 2022
“Oh yeah. Yeah, absolutely. Based on the current growth, a hundred percent.”
Kurt Avarell Jun 30, 2022 ▶ 11:35 Rockstar Guitarist Launches SaaS, Breaks $3.6m in revenue, $30m valuation
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Avarell: Ember operates near breakeven with almost zero cash burn
“I can tell you, we operate pretty close to a breakeven. Like we've not burned hardly any cash. Most of the cash that we put on the balance sheet is to buy inventory.”
Kurt Avarell Jun 30, 2022 ▶ 12:07 Rockstar Guitarist Launches SaaS, Breaks $3.6m in revenue, $30m valuation
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Avarell: Pacaso and Ember are the two dominant players in fractional ownership
“Right now it's basically the two big players in the space are Picasso and Ember. There are a couple others that are smaller but those are the two big ones.”
Kurt Avarell Jun 30, 2022 ▶ 8:30 Rockstar Guitarist Launches SaaS, Breaks $3.6m in revenue, $30m valuation
Assertion Supported
Avarell: Peter Thiel led Ember's Series A in $17.4M combined round
“So we closed a seed and an A, which we kind of announced together at a 17.4 million dollar financing. The A was led by Peter Thiel. So we were super excited about that to have him lead that financing. And we closed that in February.”
Kurt Avarell Jun 30, 2022 ▶ 13:25 Rockstar Guitarist Launches SaaS, Breaks $3.6m in revenue, $30m valuation
Disclosure
Avarell: Ember takes 12% markup on home purchase and furnishings
“Where we make the money is on that You know, we're right now at 4.3 million dollars, the four million dollar purchase price of the home, 300,000 dollars of furnishings. We take a 12% uplift. So we'll take that 4.3, multiply it by 12%. And that's where Embe…”
Kurt Avarell Jun 30, 2022 ▶ 18:10 Rockstar Guitarist Launches SaaS, Breaks $3.6m in revenue, $30m valuation
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Avarell: Ember expects to double or triple customer count by year-end
“Well, we've had over a hundred families buy in to Ember to date over the past 10 months, and yeah, we expect to, you know, double, double or triple that number toward, you know, the end of the year or so.”
Kurt Avarell Jun 30, 2022 ▶ 19:26 Rockstar Guitarist Launches SaaS, Breaks $3.6m in revenue, $30m valuation
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Avarell: Ember share transactions close in 24 hours via LLC interests
“You list the property, it goes up on the MLS, it goes on Ember's website. we bring in a buyer, the buyer buys a share, and they can actually close on that share in 24 hours because what they're buying is a membership interest in an LLC, not in not, you know,…”
Kurt Avarell Jun 30, 2022 ▶ 27:35 Rockstar Guitarist Launches SaaS, Breaks $3.6m in revenue, $30m valuation
Assertion Supported
Avarell: Canopy raised about $70M by 2019 departure
“We raised at the time that I left, it was about seventy million.”
Kurt Avarell Jun 30, 2022 ▶ 2:12 Rockstar Guitarist Launches SaaS, Breaks $3.6m in revenue, $30m valuation
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Avarell: Most second-home owners use properties only six to eight weeks yearly
“The downside is most second home owners don't use the home That often. And so you know, they're only, they think they're going to be there six months out of the year, but they end up only being there six to eight weeks out of the year.”
Kurt Avarell Jun 30, 2022 ▶ 5:00 Rockstar Guitarist Launches SaaS, Breaks $3.6m in revenue, $30m valuation
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Avarell: Ember holds $20M to $30M in total debt financing
“Well on the debt side, it's, there's several different sources of debt that we use to make this happen. And you know, it's probably in the 20 to thirty million dollars right now on the debt side and the combination of everything collectively.”
Kurt Avarell Jun 30, 2022 ▶ 14:24 Rockstar Guitarist Launches SaaS, Breaks $3.6m in revenue, $30m valuation
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