why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Insight
Fredrickson: Founders should price early rounds and treat current cash as last
“If you can price something and price it now, it gives you something to work from and gives you more stability because you never know when your next financing round is going to come. And you should always assume that you're on your own with the cash you have al…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fredrickson: Mid-2016 startup fundraising valuations dropped 50% from prior levels
“The prices that the market will bear now are about 50% lower than they were when we fundraised.”
Assertion Supported
Julie Fredrickson: 75% of women never finish purchased cosmetics
“It turns out, 75% of women don't finish the cosmetics they buy, not just before they expire, but at all.”
Insight
Fredrickson: Beauty incumbents sell unfinished products and face high re-acquisition costs
“Gary sees trends farther out than anyone I know, and I think what was appealing to Gary in this case is that the beauty industry is heavily entrenched, heavily consolidated, and is selling a product that people don't finish, and it's very expensive to acquire …”
Assertion Partly supported
Fredrickson: Independent DTC cosmetics brands achieve 90% margins versus 50% incumbents
“So if you go into the 10 K's of these companies, they're looking at about 50% margin, whereas typically when you're independent and don't necessarily need to leave room for these resellers your margins in cosmetics can get up to 90%.”
Assertion Partly supported
Fredrickson: Most women carry 6–7 cosmetic products and own 40
“Most women carry between six and seven products with them at any given time and own 40. Cosmetics products.”
Disclosure
Fredrickson: Gary Vaynerchuk and Metamorphic Ventures led Stowaway's seed round
“Actually, Gary Vaynerchuk led the round. With Vayner Capital along with Metamorphic Ventures, which is a New York-based fund.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fredrickson: 40% of Stowaway's revenue came from repeat purchasing
“40% of our revenue last month came from repeat purchasing.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fredrickson: Stowaway Cosmetics passes 100k lipstick units sold
“We're not in the millions yet, but we have passed the 100,000 mark. Actually, with lipsticks, it's the first, first product to make that point.”
Disclosure
Fredrickson: Stowaway Targets $40-$50 CAC and $1,000 Customer Lifetime Value
“Keep in mind, this is based off of, say, the idea of a CAC of 40 To 50 dollars, so let's just round it to 40, and knowing that I want to make a thousand bucks off of this woman over a lifetime, and that means having the best possible products and making sure t…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fredrickson: 40% of Stowaway's First Cohort Reached Third Order
“Our most mature cohort, which would be month one, has now gotten to the point where we're at 40% of them repurchasing, and they're now on their third orders.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fredrickson: Stowaway Cosmetics are half size and half price of prestige brands
“So, a quick way of thinking about us is we are cosmetics that are half the size and half the price of a typical prestige cosmetic.”
Disclosure
Fredrickson: Stowaway Closed $1.5M Seed Round in August 2014 Prior to Launch
“No, we closed that in August of 2014. So we close around prior to launch, yes.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fredrickson: Average Customer Depletes Stowaway Cosmetics in 90 Days
“It takes somewhere between three and six months for the average woman to finish our products. 90 days is the sum total average, but obviously we have people that are more minimalist.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fredrickson: Stowaway runs a real-time BI dashboard using Google Sheets and Zapier
“We have a business intelligence dashboard that's run through Google Sheets using Zapier that integrates all of our business data. So we have a real-time look at what's going on. So Stripe sales data, CRM, NPS scores, Google Apps.”