The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Contradicted
Mattress companies typically traded at 3x to 4x revenue in 2018
“It's valued on the basis of maybe three or four times revenue.”
David Farley Oct 3, 2018 ▶ 14:11 1166 He Invented Mattress in a Box 20 years ago But Casper Out-Marketed Him
Assertion Supported
Casper, Purple, Saatva, Tuft & Needle, and Nectar led DTC sales
“By order of sales volume, it's Casper, Purple Saf and then Tuft & Needle and Nectar round out the top five.”
David Farley Oct 3, 2018 ▶ 4:21 1166 He Invented Mattress in a Box 20 years ago But Casper Out-Marketed Him
Assertion Supported
Top five DTC mattress brands drove over half of category volume
“Those five out of a 150 are doing better than 50% of the transformation volume.”
David Farley Oct 3, 2018 ▶ 4:33 1166 He Invented Mattress in a Box 20 years ago But Casper Out-Marketed Him
Assertion Contradicted
Casper approached a $500M annual revenue run rate in 2018
“They did, they're approaching the five hundred million dollar run rate as best we can tell.”
David Farley Oct 3, 2018 ▶ 7:23 1166 He Invented Mattress in a Box 20 years ago But Casper Out-Marketed Him
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Farley manufactured compressed boxed mattresses for hospitals 25 years ago
“We also eventually became the manufacturers of some hospital or healthcare mattress products that we put in a compressed format for distribution to the acute care hospitals around the country almost 25 years ago.”
David Farley Oct 3, 2018 ▶ 2:53 1166 He Invented Mattress in a Box 20 years ago But Casper Out-Marketed Him
Assertion Supported
DTC mattress sales accounted for 20 percent of $15B market
“You know, the betting industry is a fifteen billion dollar industry, and right now about 20% of it. Is in the, what I'll call the segment, this offline, either startups or other off, other circumstances where consumers are buying products today, buying mattres…”
David Farley Oct 3, 2018 ▶ 3:36 1166 He Invented Mattress in a Box 20 years ago But Casper Out-Marketed Him
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bootstrapped mattress brand Luxi projected $5M in revenue for 2018
“We're projecting five for the end of the year.”
David Farley Oct 3, 2018 ▶ 6:37 1166 He Invented Mattress in a Box 20 years ago But Casper Out-Marketed Him
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Luxi maintained manufacturing gross margins in the high 50 percent range
“Our gross margins on, on manufacturing are run in the high 50% range.”
David Farley Oct 3, 2018 ▶ 7:58 1166 He Invented Mattress in a Box 20 years ago But Casper Out-Marketed Him
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Luxi averaged a $200 customer acquisition cost across all mattress products
“A couple hundred bucks. There's cost of acquisition today for all of our products averaged across all the, all of the items.”
David Farley Oct 3, 2018 ▶ 8:11 1166 He Invented Mattress in a Box 20 years ago But Casper Out-Marketed Him
Disclosure
Luxi bootstrapped its mattress business entirely without outside capital
“No, we bootstrapped the whole thing.”
David Farley Oct 3, 2018 ▶ 10:45 1166 He Invented Mattress in a Box 20 years ago But Casper Out-Marketed Him
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