why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Volset: Sam Altman's $10B startup valuation rule makes no sense
“He wrote a piece and I think in January saying how to invest in a startup. And he said, you should never invest in any company that couldn't potentially be a ten billion dollar company. And I'm like, that doesn't make any sense. Like there's a lot of companies…”
Insight
Volset: A $75M exit at a low valuation reliably delivers 50x returns
“If you're coming in at one and a half million pre, Then a 50 X return is, is the company sells for 75. Now those kind of outcomes are much more doable and much more frequent than you know, you, I, something selling for seven hundred and fifty million or a bill…”
Assertion Supported
Volset: Less than 7% of software acquisitions get mainstream press coverage
“I looked at the, like, 3000 software acquisitions being done in the last three years, and I said, okay, how many of those companies are how many of those companies get mainstream tech press mention when they get sold? And it's less than seven percent.”
Insight
Volset: Seed funds need at least 50 portfolio companies for 5x returns
“I think you probably need to have at least 50 companies in your car to be, to have the outcome where you're expected to have it, like, at least like a five X return on capital.”
Disclosure
Noah Bragg avoids traditional VC, targeting TinySeed and Earnest Capital
“So I don't want to go on the VC track. I'm more interested in investors like tiny seed or earnest capital, things like that.”
Disclosure
TinySeed relies on LP SPVs for follow-ons rather than dedicated funds
“We're doing SPVs. We haven't really focused on two, but I think that's what we'll still do. I think we'll effectively, what we're looking to do is make our money doing our primary business. Like we don't like, we're sort of similar to YC and that, that we're l…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Volset: TinySeed portfolio tracking at about 55% IRR
“Yeah, our current portfolio is about 55% last time I checked.”
Insight
Volset: High valuations block founders from taking life-changing $30M exits
“Like if you take a high valuation, 1012, fifteen million dollars, and you raise a bunch of money, that's, that closes off your opportunity to exit for 10, 20, 30, forty million dollars. You simply won't be able to. Like there'll be, usually there are restricti…”
Disclosure
Volset: TinySeed pitches 20% to 30% IRR to LPs
“Yeah, we're pitching 20, 30%, something like that.”
Disclosure
Hewitt: Castos raised $120k from TinySeed for marketing and engineering
“A 120. Yeah.
I mean, you know, they had kind of their standard deal. I'm sure I and I talked about that when he was on it and we didn't have kind of too many questions there and, you know, we signed up there and they took a percentage of equity in return for t…”