why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chapman: Hykso can become the next Strava or Peloton
“I think there's a future here. I think you can become something like a Strava or a Peloton.”
Prediction Held up
Chapman: Somewear's market will end up being enterprise, not consumer
“In my heart of hearts, I feel like your market is going to end up being more in the enterprise than it's going to end up being out on the trail.”
Prediction Held up
Chapman: Tesla will ban commercial Supercharger access if Tesloop scales
“If you scale up and you've got a hundred cars on the road to Palm Springs every day, and the other Tesla drivers who are not commercial drivers cannot get a supercharger, I guarantee you Tesla is gonna say, no commercial use, you are not allowed to use our sta…”
Assertion Partly supported
Chapman: Over Half of Founders Have Diagnosable Mental Health Issues
“It's 30% can be diagnosed with clinical depression. 30% can be diagnosed with ADHD. It's about 29% can be diagnosed with, like, problematic anxiety to, like, where a clinician would diagnose you with it. And there's some overlap that still ends up being, like,…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chapman: Howie Diamond is going to lose out by passing on Hykso
“Howie's going to lose out on this one.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chapman predicts youth athletes will rebel against wearing FitGuard mouthguards
“And I don't think you're going to be able to get piecemeal adoption, because I think the kids are going to rebel against it.”
Assertion Supported
Chapman: Millennials prefer less profitable table games over dying slot machines
“I know the casinos have a huge problem with millennials and millennials prefer table games, but the table games aren't generally as profitable, and the slots are, used to be the bread and butter of the casinos, and they're sort of dying out, right?”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chapman: Post-Seed Bridge Deals Outperformed Across Our Portfolios
“And it turned out that those deals were the best deals we invested in, like across our portfolio. So they were raising A-Rounds within six months, much higher valuations. The revenue was growing really quickly in all of those companies.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chapman: Mirror-based room service ordering will reduce food conversion rates
“I think you might run into a problem where people who are looking at themselves in the mirror and then choosing food. I'm serious. I think this is going to reduce the conversion of food orders in hotel rooms, and it's a bit in the weeds. I think you might see …”