why aren't all 39 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robbins: Handle stores generate more revenue and higher margins than typical 7-Elevens
“Our stores generate more revenue and a higher margin than a typical seven 11.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robbins: Handle's customer acquisition cost is under one dollar
“So our customer acquisition cost is actually under a dollar.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Robbins: Mature Handle stores will generate $2M in revenue and $500K profit
“There are 500 universities in the U.S. Where, that we've identified are viable markets for this, and if you just do the napkin math, our average store at maturity is going to be doing two million a year, so it's a billion in revenue, and then it's about 25% of…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robbins: Handel generates higher revenue and margins than typical 7-Elevens
“Our stores generate more revenue and a higher margin than a typical seven 11, and so we see the future as very bright for our business.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robbins: Handel's customer acquisition cost is under $1
“So our customer acquisition cost is actually under a dollar.”
Assertion Supported
Robbins: Campus security blocks DoorDash after 10 p.m. while Handle couriers enter
“In the evenings, because of COVID, schools have gotten incredibly tight around who's allowed on campus. So if I'm a USC student, after 10 p.m., I actually can't get a DoorDash delivery, even to the building I'm in, much less my door. Because we're using studen…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robbins: Handle's USC store generates $10,000 per month in profit
“Our stores, we've actually brought our first two locations to cashflow positivity. So our flagship market USC is producing 10,000 dollars per month in profit.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robbins: Handle sees direct correlation between hiring couriers and customer signups
“Our delivery couriers, we intentionally overstaff because they turn into brand ambassadors, and then they go in and bring their own community inside the school onto the platform. And we've seen the data and the direct correlation between hiring new employees a…”
Assertion Supported
Robbins: DoorDash couriers cannot access USC campus after 10 p.m.
“So if I'm a USC student, after 10 p.m., I actually can't get a DoorDash delivery, even to the building I'm in, much less my door. Because we're using students, they have student IDs, they can get in at any time, and we're able to deliver the best customer expe…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robbins: Opening a Handle store costs $60K upfront and $60K in burn to break even
“To give you an idea of opening a location, it's roughly 60 K in upfront investment to get the licenses, build out the store, purchase the inventory, and then it's roughly 60 K burn over the first kind of six to seven months to bring that store to break even.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robbins: Handle's delivery insurance costs spiked tenfold after regulatory changes
“Essentially, right after we recorded, literally in the days following, there's a big regulatory change that happens in our industry, and overnight, our insurance costs 10 X's.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robbins: Handle received an acqui-hire offer during insurance disruption
“This looked really scary the first two weeks, and in the middle of all of this tumultuous period, we get an acquisition offer as well.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robbins: Handel delivers 700 SKUs profitably in 12 minutes on average
“We deliver a curated set of 700 SKUs to students on and off campus in an average of 12 minutes, and we deliver them profitably.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robbins: Handel averages a $17 ticket and $4 contribution margin per order
“Our average ticket is 17 dollars, and we net four dollars in contribution margin per order.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robbins: Handel's USC flagship generates $10,000 monthly profit
“So our flagship market USC is producing 10,000 dollars per month in profit.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robbins: Handel customers average over eight orders each
“And so our customers in contrast have over eight orders on average, and we've only been open for 18 months.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Robbins: Handle stores can reach $2M revenue and $500K profit at maturity
“We're projecting that at maturity, which is about three to four years after opening, stores can do two million in top line and 500 K in profit per year.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robbins: Handle Couriers Drive Direct Correlation in New Customer Signups
“Our delivery couriers, we intentionally overstaff because they turn into brand ambassadors, and then they go in and bring their own community inside the school onto the platform. And we've seen the data and the direct correlation between hiring new employees a…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Robbins: Handle's U.S. TAM is $1B Across 500 Universities
“So there are 500 universities in the U.S. Where, that we've identified are viable markets for this, and if you just do the napkin math, our average store at maturity is going to be doing two million a year, so it's a billion in revenue, and then it's about 25%…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robbins: Delivery times over 20 minutes reduce Handel's repeat customers
“Right now we see that if we get above 20 into the 25, 30 minute range, we do see a reduction in returning customers”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robbins: Delivery robots cost $3-$4 per order vs $3.70 for Handel
“And we've also looked at the cost per delivery for these robots. Generally, it's around three to four. And for us, we're already spending only about three 70 to deliver with our existing workflows.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Robbins: Drones are more likely future for delivery than ground robots
“Yeah, I actually see the future for, kind of, robotic delivery for us is most likely drones when that catches up mainly because they're gonna be able to circumvent a lot of the foot traffic and, like, you know, car traffic that is what's slowing down most of t…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robbins: Handel generated $1.2M lifetime sales with ~25% gross margin
“To date, we've done 1.2 million in top line sales. On that, we've spent roughly 600,000 on inventory sold. That's, like, our cogs. And then when you add in the pick pack delivery labor, that's about 20%, and the rest is take for us. So, you know, roughly 30% b…”
Assertion Supported
Robbins: Handle uses part-time W-2 labor instead of 1099 contractors
“One significant advantage that I see is that we're actually using W-II labor, even though it's part-time.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robbins: Handle is at a $1.2M revenue run rate
“So we're at a 1.2 million dollar run rate.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robbins: Handle burns less than $10,000 per month
“So our burn rate is generally less than 10,000 dollars a month.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robbins: Built all Handle tech including apps and internal dashboards
“I actually built all of our tech so I'm kind of a software engineer by trade, but yeah, so we have, Application for our couriers. We have an application for our customers, and then we have internal kind of administrative dashboards, order management software, …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robbins: Delivery Times Over 20 Minutes Reduce Handle's Customer Retention
“We've done some testing, and we've done analysis around, you know, delivery times and return rates for customers, and right now we see that if we get above 20 into the 25, 30 minute range, we do see a reduction in returning customers”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chase Robbins: 50% of Handle add-to-carts come from top five category items
“50% of our add to carts come from the first five products in any given category.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chase Robbins: Handle converts about 50% of signups into first orders
“Right now, our customers, we have about a 50% conversion from signing up for the app and placing their first order”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robbins: Handle couriers batch six to seven orders per trip on hourly pay
“Every time they leave the warehouse, they're generally taking six to seven orders. That's where we really, because we pay them hourly, we're not paying them per delivery.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robbins: Handle's Oregon GM turned down Big Four consulting offers
“He came to us when he was a student and loved the business so much, you know, we gave him a little bit of equity compensation and then we put this new compensation structure in place and he passed up, you know, big four consulting jobs to stay and run this loc…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robbins: Handle achieved $1.2M in cumulative sales with a 25% gross margin
“So we've done, to date, we've done 1.2 million in top line sales. On that, we've spent roughly 600,000 on inventory sold. That's, like, our cogs. And then when you add in the pick pack delivery labor, that's about 20%, and the rest is take for us... 25% of 1.2…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robbins: Handle uses part-time W-2 employee labor for deliveries
“One significant advantage that I see is that we're actually using W-II labor, even though it's part-time.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robbins: Handle is at a $1.2 million revenue run rate
“So we're at a 1.2 million dollar run rate.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robbins: Handle burns less than $10,000 per month net
“Sure, so our burn rate is generally less than 10,000 dollars a month.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robbins: 50% of Handel add-to-carts come from top five category items
“50% of our add to carts come from the first five products in any given category.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robbins: Handel achieves 50% conversion from app signup to first order
“Right now, our customers, we have about a 50% conversion from signing up for the app and placing their first order”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robbins: Handel couriers batch 6 to 7 orders per warehouse run
“No, so every time they leave the warehouse, they're generally taking six to seven orders. That's where we really, because we pay them hourly, we're not paying them per delivery, that's where we get the cost efficiencies from”