The Wisdom Wall
9 quotable lessons, heuristics and mental models. Every one is playable at the moment it was said. No fortune cookies allowed.
“the key problem I see Is this, the models can't do on-the-job training. So if you think about a human employee, um, you might have some. And these human employees, the good thing about them is that, you know, you train them for six months or a year, and over time they're getting better and better. They're learning…”
“I think the, this is at least an order of magnitude less efficient and less, um, less, uh, capable than the way humans learn.”
“This, like, tacit knowledge that you build up through practice is not this, like, written instruction manual that you can just write out as a system prompt.”
“I think the bigger problem is not just the width or the, the width of the pool, how many different tasks you have to RL on, but it's a depth in the sense that a job doesn't involve doing a thousand different five minute tasks individually. It's the fact that you're like trying to work on something But then somebody's…”
“even if there's no software progress out of that point, that algorithms aren't improving, just that ability to learn on the job from everything in the economy would functionally produce what looks like a super intelligence, right? No human will be, will have mastered The range of skills and knowledge and know-how that…”
“That's not gonna happen. It's got the style that it's learned through its RL training for deep research. Um, so then again, it just becomes another tool. It doesn't really, it's not, it's not, you know, it doesn't become like an employee for you.”
“I think it's just a very zero sum view of the world where there can be a limited amount of beauty. There can be a limited amount of joy. Um, I just don't think that.”
“So maybe my update has been that you can sort of know what's going to happen. I mean, I remember at the time I was just like, ah, these, these idiots on Twitter are just like, they don't know what they're talking about. They're just like a rumor mill. And in retrospect, I'm like, eh, kind of like, I mean, you know, you…”
“right now, you know, um, it's really hard for, if you have an institution or organization company, it's really hard for the person at the center to have that much awareness of what's happening in the company to control it to any great extent. Um, Xi Jinping has the same 10 to the 15 flops in his brain as any other…”