The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Hammond: AI will deflate US knowledge work while China automates manufacturing
“The last 40 years we've specialized in, you know, higher education, knowledge work, legal management services, Hollywood, you know, the creative class, all this stuff that is going to like be deflated and China will have the factories that will become fully au…”
Hammond: Abruptly resetting global trade imbalances will crash stocks and real estate
“If you do this all at once, what that means is the entire floor will fall out of the stock market and the real estate market. And, you know, with huge cascading effects through emerging calls.”
Hammond: Nvidia continually circumvents export controls with sub-threshold chips like the H20
“Every time we introduce an expert control, NVIDIA's two weeks later has a new chip that just gets under the line of what's being controlled. And the latest one is the H-Twenty.”
Hammond: AI systems will swamp all other economic issues by 2029
“In four years we're going to have such powerful AI systems that like really it swamps everything else.”
Hammond: China added 446 GW of power last year versus US net zero additions
“China added 446 gigawatts of energy last year. It was a 20% year over year increase. They're going to do that again this year. We added zero net new energy. We had a lot of renewables, but it came directly out of coal and other sources.”
Hammond: China Has Decisively Leapfrogged the US in Battery Technology
“Yes, we have the data centers and the better models, but China, you know, has the batteries, right? They have like that. That's one area where they have leapfrogged us and whether it's electric vehicles or robotics or drones, like we need to have our own batte…”
Hammond predicts AG Pam Bondi will settle NRC nuclear licensing lawsuit
“There's, I think there's a good chance that this, that Pam Bondi and the attorney general settle that case, in which case states could then stand up their own licensing boards.”
Hammond: Commerce Department is delaying Nvidia H20 export controls over tariffs
“The commerce department has, you know, Howard Lutnick has said that he's going to export control the age 20, but they're so distracted by tariffs. They haven't prioritized it. And the time is kind of running out.”
Hammond: $16B in Nvidia H20 chip orders are waiting to ship
“There's sixteen billion dollars of orders for age twenties just sort of sitting in limbo about to go at the door.”