why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2031
AI will undoubtedly lead to fewer software engineering jobs, says Lynch
“So what does that mean if you're a software engineer? It means there's gonna be fewer jobs, aren't you? Without a doubt. Fewer jobs. For now.”
Assertion Supported
Lynch replaced every single Condé Nast executive except Anna Wintour
“You know, other than Anna Wintour, every other executive has turned over since I joined the company. Every single one. And I did most of it immediately.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lynch: Fewer Media Outlets Will Survive AI-Era Industry Changes
“There's gonna be fewer places that can do that. Because the ones that are more marginal may not survive the changes that are happening.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lynch: Search traffic fell faster than Condé Nast's forecasts for three years
“Each of the last three years, we would do our budgets, we'd put some forecasts in of search traffic declining, you know, why? Just because we'd seen the pattern of algorithm changes, and generally those algorithm changes were negative. They had negative impact…”
Assertion Supported
Twenty-somethings buy as much vinyl as older demographics, often without players
“Now there's as many people in their twenties buying them as there are people in their fifties or sixties buying them. A lot of people in their twenties don't even own a record player. They buy the vinyl records.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lynch: The New Yorker Sees Subscriptions Spike From Deep Investigative Pieces
“When we come out with these really deeply researched investigative pieces that, you know, we have a huge army of fact checkers at the New Yorker that Comb through every single word so that when it is published, it has really, really been thoroughly fact checke…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lynch: Vogue grows revenue and profit every year of his tenure
“Vogue has grown every year. I've been at the company. It grows revenue, grows profitability every year.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lynch: Condé Nast owners never interfered in seven years
“That, you know, I've been at the company house seven years and not once have they ever called to interfere with anything we do.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lynch: Condé Nast subscriber retention improved despite material price hikes
“We have raised prices on subscriptions fairly materially over the last couple of years. And you know, each year we think, okay, we're raising the price. We're going to, the retention is going to go down and actually the retention has gone gotten better every s…”
Assertion Partly supported
Lynch: Vogue readers directed backlash at magazine over AI-model ad
“You know, last June, there was an ad that was run in Vogue print magazine, and the ad used an AI generated model. And it blew up. But people who were angry, they were angry a little bit at the advertiser. They were mostly angry at Vogue.”
Assertion Supported
Lynch: Recorded Music Revenue Only Recently Recovered to 1999 Peak
“It's only just gotten back to the size it was in 1999, you know, 27 years later.”
Assertion Supported
Lynch: Vinyl Record Sales Have Grown Every Year for 18 Years
“Vinyl records have grown every year for the last 18 years. And sales of vinyl records.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Pitchfork accounts for just 1% of Condé Nast's total revenue
“We have smaller niche brands pitchfork and music brand. Very small. It's one percent of our revenue.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lynch: Condé Nast digital subscription revenue grew 29% last year
“Our digital subscriptions grew 29% last year, revenue, and you know, they're growing double digit percentages this year”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lynch: Branded content is Condé Nast's biggest advertising category
“So our biggest advertising category is branded content.”
Assertion Supported
Roger Lynch: European broadband startup streamed live NFL games in 1999
“Literally one of the first things we did is we did a deal with the NFL to stream live NFL games in 1999.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lynch: Pandora tuned about 90 machine learning algorithms per listener
“Each of the algorithms, they had, I can't remember, about 90 or so algorithms, each one would get tuned for every individual listener.”