The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 44 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Cuban: Humanoid Robot Startups Will Fail Miserably Within Ten Years
“I think everybody's making this push for humanoid robots. I think they might have a five-year lifespan and then they'll fail miserably, maybe 10.”
Cuban: Requiring Foreign Amazon Seller Bonds Would Skyrocket US Manufacturing
“And yeah, and legislatively you could fix it in a heartbeat. You got to post a bond. 25,000 dollar bond, depending on the size of the market, maybe more, and then give everybody 90 days to check it, and all of a sudden the whole industry changes, and American …”
Cuban says government converting Intel grant to equity is awful
“The fact that it's a grant that they're converting, I think is awful, because it was meant to be a grant, and that was the deal the United States of America made, and now we're going back on the paper that we signed as a country.”
Cuban: Trump executes policies Democrats were not smart enough to do
“I am giving Donald Trump all his flowers because he is doing things in a way that the Democrats aren't smart enough to figure out to have done themselves.”
Cuban: Consumers won't abandon misleading AI because users are primed for misinformation
“I wouldn't agree with that, Jordy, because I think people are primed for misinformation these days. You see it in healthcare continuously. You know, you saw it with COVID vaccines. People on their deathbed say, I wish I had taken the vaccine, you know, and you…”
Cuban: AI is merely statistical and will not become smart for a long time
“Particularly because AI is not smart. Right. AI is just statistical right now. And I'm of the mindset that that's not going to change for a long time.”
Cuban: Fearless Student AI Prompters Have More Skill Than Corporate Staff
“Kids coming out of school today that are fearless in the questions they ask and the follow-ups and their ability to prompt, they have more skill than everybody in every major corporation with under a thousand employees.”
Cuban: Trump is executing Bernie Sanders-style economic policies better than Democrats
“He's turned into Bernie Sanders. He literally has, you know, only he's a better salesperson. This is fantastic. I give him credit though. I'm not knocking him, right? I am giving Donald Trump all his flowers because he is doing things in a way that the Democra…”
Cuban: Vertical AI Agents Will Replace Traditional SaaS Business Models
“Once you figure out how to do agents, then you can do them a little better than most other people, and then you can turn that into what would have been a SaaS business in the past, is now, you know, we'll create your own marketing team, and we'll, you know, do…”
Cuban: AI Agents Using Crypto Wallet Payments Will Cause Widespread Scams
“You know, to make it so that, you know, just give me your wallet and that's, you know, it's going to end up being a scam and a lot of people are going to get ripped off there.”
Cuban: Adversarial graffiti will inevitably confuse vision-based self-driving systems
“There's somebody somewhere trying to figure out how to fuck up self-driving mode, right? Because it's just taking video input, and you know, what, it could be some pattern, and all of a sudden you're seeing this pattern on medians, or, you know, overlaid on st…”
Cuban: High Insurance Deductibles Turn Hospitals Into Subprime Lenders
“If you don't have that money, and 40% of people don't have 400 dollars for an emergency, when you go to the hospital, as an example, they literally end up loaning you the money. And that, as a result, we've turned hospitals and providers into subprime lenders.”
Cuban: Foreign Sellers Have Structural Cost and IP Advantages on Amazon
“Because any, whether it's China or Vietnam, any country, if you're outside the United States, you immediately have a cost advantage, not the manufacturing, but just from an IP, from a, and from an Amazon cost perspective.”
Cuban predicts five to six foundation models and millions of brand models
“There's not, there'll be five, six, whatever it is, foundational models before there's consolidation. But beyond that, there's gonna be millions of models. Millions and millions of models. And every brand is going to need a model, particularly like in healthca…”
Cuban: Integrating ads directly into LLM responses will cause major problems
“You can do all the display ads you want. You could do video there all you want. But if it's in the response that comes back from the model, boy, you're gonna have lots of problems.”
Cuban: Five to six foundational models will exist before consolidation
“There's not, there'll be five, six, whatever it is, foundational models before there's consolidation, but beyond that, there's going to be millions of models, millions and millions of models, and every brand is going to need a model, particularly like in healt…”
Cuban: Non-tech companies will have AI job shortages for years
“Going to any other company who has no idea about AI, but needs it in order to compete, there'll be more jobs than people for a long, long time.”
Cuban: Retail private markets require platforms to act as market makers
“Is there a way, whether it's tokenization or other approaches to that?
Probably, but it's going to have to go back to the future where somebody is going to have to take some risk and be a market maker.
Yeah.
If Vlad or whoever is a market maker so that there's…”
Cuban: Converting Intel grants to equity reneges on signed US commitments
“The fact that it's a grant that they're converting, I think is awful, because it was meant to be a grant, and that was a deal the United States of America made, and now we're going back on the paper that we signed as a country.”
Cuban: Other Shark Tank Investors Won't Understand AI Agent Pitches
“No, people won't understand them, and the other sharks wouldn't understand them.”
Cuban: AI in Sports Will Be Limited to Officiating
“I mean, maybe for the referees, like you've seen in tennis, but that's it.”
Cuban: Future Homes Will Be Redesigned Around Non-Humanoid Robots
“I think houses are going to be redesigned completely so that whatever the optimal robot is that allows it to simplify the house, that's where houses will go.”
Cuban: Bandwidth Limits Will Constrain Video-Based AI World Models
“I think, you know, the biggest challenge going forward is going to be, as we go from an LLM world to a world view world of AI, where, you know, we're taking in video and learning from the video and extracting rules from the video, a lot of the things that we'r…”
Cuban: I Mandated Cost Plus Watermarks on My OpenAI Sora Clones
“I made a condition so that at the end of every video that used my likeness, you had the, it showed the logo for Cost Plus Drugs. So smart. So smart. And it's been used like hundreds of thousands of times, and I know we've seen a bump as a result.”
Cuban: Basic AI foundation models will always remain free
“The basic models are always going to be free.”
Cuban opposes equity crowdfunding due to a lack of liquidity
“I've been anti not sweat equity crowdfunding, right? Crowd equity programs against it because there's no liquidity.”
Cuban: Consulting ChatGPT for medical issues is sometimes easier than finding doctors
“It's easier to chat GPT about your own personal medical situation. Then it is to find a doctor to talk to sometimes.”
Cuban: IP practices will radically change as AI training absorbs published work
“Part two, we're, I think we're going to see a groundswell in how intellectual property is dealt with. A groundswell change in how IP is dealt with. Because there was, for a long time, it's been publish or perish. Get your stuff out there. Get it into journals.…”
Cuban: Synthetic AI data cannot invent what human scientists discover
“Cause there's no way to synthesize all that shit. You're not synthesizing. You're not creating synthetic data that all of a sudden is going to, you know, you could tell, you give it all the backstory you want, that you're a doctor, that you invented this, that…”
Cuban: Opposes equity crowdfunding because retail investors lack liquidity
“I've been anti
It's not sweat equity crowdfunding, right?
Crowd equity programs against it because there's no liquidity.
People love a company, the next Figma, and they put in their life savings because they know Figma is going to the moon, baby, and they can…”
Cuban: Recent IPOs behave like meme coins with musical-chairs dynamics
“I mean, it's like watching some of these IPOs, they're like meme coins now.
Bam, they take off, and then it's musical chairs to see who can get out the last but first, right?
And if you don't get out first, or at near the beginning, you're getting crushed, you…”
Cuban: Only a Trump third-term bid would make him run for president
“I mean, it's easy to say yes right now, but it's, that's the, probably the only thing that could make me really reconsider, because otherwise, I'm not, I don't want to do that shit. It's not my dream to be president.”
Cuban: AI Cold Email Surge Will Drop Off as Response Rates Plummet
“And that's okay, right? Because they're gonna, the response rates most likely will be so low. We're in that trial and error phase where people are like, we're gonna try and see what happens. You know, maybe we'll get lucky and then they'll get bored and then i…”
Cuban: More People Will Attend In-Person Events as AI Automates Work
“I think in reality, more people will want to go to in real life events than before, because if, you know, if you're just managing agents, looking at output, looking for exceptions, you're going to want some human touch, right?”
Cuban: Testing Tesla Full Self-Driving Terrified Me
“I have a Tesla, and I upgraded for a couple months, and it terrified the shit out of me.”
Cuban: Students Mastering AI Agents Can Capture Small Business Consulting Demand
“I think particularly for small, medium-sized businesses and some large businesses, they're not gonna have that skill set. It's not gonna be natural for them to do that, and I think kids coming out of school today that have taken some Python, don't have to be c…”
Cuban: Lilly and Novo Bypassing PBMs for GLP-1 Drugs Is Brilliant
“No, cause that stuff's going to come down in price and now, you know, Lilly and Novo are smart now with their GLP ones. They're working around the PBMs and doing direct-to-patient, direct-to-company, and that was brilliant. That was really smart.”
Cuban: Only Two Shark Tank Pitches Completely Choked in 15 Years
“Of the hundreds, if not thousands of pitches I saw in 15 years, we only had one really just choke, right, where they couldn't spit it out maybe two, which is amazing, it's a testament to Mindy and the producers there, and how hard they prepare them.”
Cuban: I Bought the Broadcast.com Domain for $8,000 in 1997
“And so, I found Broadcast.com, because we wanted to broadcast everything and anything, and found the guy, and paid him 8000 dollars, and he was thrilled to get the 8000 dollars.”
Cuban: I Own Domain Names Like Baseball.com and Sandwich.com
“So literally I own final four.com. I own baseball.com. I own sandwich.com. You name it. I bought it.”
Cuban: Cost Plus Drugs gets significant traffic from ChatGPT
“We get a lot of traffic from open AI chat GPT for cost plus drugs.com.”
Cuban: Cost Plus Drugs gets significant traffic from ChatGPT
“We get a lot of traffic from open AI ChatGPG for costplusdrugs.com.”
Cuban: 30 Million of 33 Million US Businesses Are Solopreneurs Lacking AI Budgets
“There are thirty three million companies in this country. Thirty million of them are solopreneurs, right? Single person enterprises. There are only, you know, there are millions of companies that have one, five, 10, 50, a 105 hundred people that aren't going t…”